Hyundai Tournament of Champions Tips: The best speciality bets

Webb Simpson is fancied to start the season in style

Paul Krishnamurty provides his tips across a range of markets for this week's opening event of the 2013 PGA Tour season

Although the Christmas break has meant an interminable wait on the sidelines, there are more prudent reasons than simply boredom for golf punters to feel good about tomorrow's Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Some very clear trends have emerged in the decade and a half that the Plantation Course has hosted this season-opener, usually making it possible to employ a process of elimination amongst a field that is much smaller than usual to begin. 

First, 11 of the 14 champions here were either in the world's top-ten or had significant course form, with only one debutant winning since the inaugural event. As Steve Rawlings explains in excellent detail, we also know precisely which stats to prioritise. Short-game brilliance and birdie accumulation are prerequisites around Kapalua, which probably explains the classy rollcall of winners. The only two 'shock' winners, Daniel Chopra and Jonathan Byrd, are excellent putters. Thirdly and most significantly this year given the weather forecast, the course is extremely exposed to wind.

Back to lays

Back Webb Simpson 6u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 15u @ 4.03/1

The combination of those trends mean we can make a fairly strong case against maybe half of this 30-man line-up, many of whom have serial failures at Kapalua, are making their debuts or simply look out of their depth. Under the circumstances and given the tournament history, the relatively small number of obvious candidates look tremendous value in double figures.

A strong case could easily be made for Matt Kuchar, Steve Stricker or Brandt Snedeker, but the one that looks the most bombproof for trading purposes is Webb Simpson at 15.014/1. The reigning US Open champion fared much better than the typical Kapalua debutant when finishing third 12 months ago and has the ideal set of stats, ranking third for putting and second for birdies amongst these last season. My plan is to set a lay target at 4.03/1 to yield at least nine units profit, with a further 30 up for grabs if he goes on to win. 

Back Rickie Fowler 4u @ 30.029/1
Place order to lay 15u @ 6.05/1

Fowler doesn't fit all the statistical criteria by any means, but the forecast strong winds mean he has to enter calculations. I'm prepared to confidently predict Rickie will prove by far the best wind exponent in this field over the years ahead, based on superb past efforts in brutal conditions at the Open Championship and elsewhere. Whether he wins this year or not, exposed Kapalua is bound to become a happy hunting ground.

There is also a chance that Fowler is underestimated in response to a poor second half of the season. He hasn't played a strokeplay event since September, so could easily arrive fresh for the new season and back to the form that made him a popular majors pick in mid-summer. Here, the plan is to place a lay order at 6.05/1 to guarantee at least 11 units profit, leaving an extra 30 in the win pot.

Tournament Matchbet

Back Webb Simpson to beat Zach Johnson 10u @ 1.910/11

In stark contrast, Zach Johnson won't like the weather forecast at all and is therefore highly unlikely to improve on a poor course record, that shows him failing to finish in the top-half of this limited field four times in five attempts. Simpson is fancied to contend, but may be able to win this match even with a mid-division finish. 

Back Carl Petterson to be top European 5u @ 2.89/5

Steve has already flagged up Carl Pettersson as an outright bet and I reckon the Swede rates a solid bet in this three-runner contest against Ian Poulter and Jonas Blixt. While Poults has been an admirable punters' friend over the years, the key is knowing when to back him. His game is all about mindset and preparation, meaning his standard can markedly deteriorate when not fully focused. He was due to arrive in Hawaii from holidays last night, so is highly unlikely to be at his best. Frys.com winner Blixt isn't without claims but, making his Kapalua debut, starts a long way behind short-game master Pettersson, who was fourth last year.