Hyundai Tournament of Champions: Big Carl to tick at the TOC, says The Punter

Carl Pettersson, The Punter's fancy in Hawaii

Our man casts his eye over the first golf action of 2013, where he fancies Carl Pettersson to get the year off to a flying start. Read Steve's preview here...

Tournament History
The 61st staging of the Hyundai Tournament of Champions kicks off the US PGA Tour on Friday. The tournament is restricted to last year's PGA Tour winners only but just 30 of them are playing and unfortunately, all the big names are missing.  The unusual Friday-Monday format, initiated last year, is in place to avoid clashing with Sunday's NFL action and to boost the US TV audience.

Venue
Plantation Course at Kapalua, Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii 

Course Details 
Par 73, 7411 yards. 
Stroke index in 2012 - 71.1

Designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, the Plantation Course opened in 1991 - it's the only par 73 on the PGA Tour rota. It's a long but easy wind exposed course with big elevation changes, wide fairways and large Bermuda greens that usually offers up very low scoring (weather permitting). This will be the 15th staging in-a-row at Kapalua.

Useful Sites
Course Site
Course Details
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports - 10.30pm Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 9.00pm Monday.

Last Five Winners
2012 - Steve Stricker -23
2011 - Jonathan Byrd -24(Playoff)
2010 - Geoff Ogilvy -22
2009 - Geoff Ogilvy -24
2008 - Daniel Chopra -18(Playoff)

What will it take to win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions?
The Plantation Course takes some getting to know and debutants don't have a great record. Sparkling course form isn't vital but knowledge of the course is a big plus. It's not uncommon for someone to suddenly compete for the title after three or four lacklustre visits.

At over 7,400 yards, logic would suggest that the big-bombers would have a big advantage but that doesn't seem to be the case. Last year's winner, Steve Stricker, ranked just 15th for Driving Distance and that was the highest any winner ranked for four years. Jonathan Byrd was 21st for DD and Geoff Ogilvy ranked 19th and 21st when he won back-to-back.

Good scrambling is very important (four of the last seven winners ranked 1st for Scrambling the week they won) but the key stat is putting. Stricker ranked 2nd for Total Putting twelve months ago and it's now 14 years since the winner ranked worse than 4th for that stat. 

Is there an identikit winner?
Although the last two winners were both American, the previous nine winners weren't so the venue possibly favours the overseas players. 

In-Play Tactics
Sergio Garcia in 2002 and Stuart Appleby in 2005, both overcame slow starts but as rule of thumb, a fast start is essential. Five of the last ten winners were in front after day one and other than the aforementioned pair; nobody else has been further than three strokes off the lead after the first round. Concentrating on the leaders from early on is the way to go in-running.

Three of the last four holes are simple enough, especially the par 5 finishing hole, but beware the 17th, it's a really tough par 4 measuring 508 yards and year after year it averages over-par. With the title on the line, a par there is always a good score.

Market Leaders
Even though there are only 30 in the field, it's a very open betting heat, with Matt Kuchar narrowly holding favouritism at 14.013/1.

Given that he's a superb scrambler, a fine putter, that he handles the forecast windy conditions, and that he has smart course form figures of T25-3-T6, I was sorely tempted at 14.013/1 but he isn't a prolific winner and although recent results suggest it doesn't necessarily matter, his lack of length off the tee is a bit of a concern too, but he makes more appeal than anyone else does at the head of the market.

Jason Dufner is playing the Plantation Course for the first time and current third best, Ian Poulter, really didn't sound up for it at all when he tweeted this on the 29th December, "Still in full holiday mode. If I go to Kapalua next week it will be on Wednesday getting in Wednesday late afternoon. Not feeling it."

Of those trading below 20.019/1, Kuchar aside, last year's winner Stricker makes most appeal but his putting was regressive throughout 2012 and at 45 that trend could continue. His course form has to be respected though and back-to-back winners are far from rare, so if he does get the flatstick working he could be the one. 

Selection
In addition to being tempted by Kuchar, I also really liked the look of Ryan Moore, who's bidding to follow-up here after winning the JT Shriners Open, just as Byrd did two years ago.

Fans of esteemed golf tipster Keith Elliott's 'nappy factor' and 'significant birthday' theories will be onboard this week as just a few weeks after his win in Nevada, wife Nichole gave birth to their first child - a son, and he turned 30 on December 5. Two significant life events that can result in an increase in both focus and form and given he won so well when last sighted and that he finished tied for 6th on debut here in 2010, he could easily shine again this week. But just like Kuchar, he doesn't win enough and I couldn't quite persuade myself to back him so I'm left with just one before the off, Carl Pettersson.

There's plenty to like about the big fella this week and I was more than happy to side with him at 28.027/1. He struggled here for a few years, finishing down the field three times, but the penny dropped two years ago and he finished tied 4th. Having failed to win in 2010 he missed the event last year but he again started the season well, finishing runner-up at the Sony Hawaii Open. He also finished 5th there on his first start in 2010, so with first time out figures of 5-4-2 over the last three years, he likes Hawaii and clearly readies himself properly for a new campaign. 

He was one of the few to handle the blustery conditions at the PGA Championship at Kiawah back in August so the windy conditions forecast shouldn't be too much of a concern and he has the stats to back-up his case too. He was ranked 30th for Scrambling and 21st for Strokes Gained Putting on the PGA Tour last year and he's also not short of the tee either- ranking 35th for Driving Distance. 

With five PGA Tour wins, Carl is sneakily prolific and of those in the field this week, only Stricker (12), Zach Johnson (9) and Dustin Johnson (6) have won more events that the Swede. He's often over-priced and that looks the case again here. 

Selection:
Carl Pettersson @ an average of 28.027/1

I'll be back on Saturday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter