Handicappers' Corner: Potential with a capital 'P'

Simonsig (left) looks destined for the top over fences

Timeform have long been fans of symbolism, argues jumps handicapper Phil Turner - even though the latter's knowledge of French art doesn't extend much beyond Asterix comic books...

From the very first publications by Phil Bull back in 1948, Timeform handicappers have had a total of nine symbols at their disposal to attach to ratings whenever they see fit. Admittedly the exact make-up of this nonet (okay I looked that up!) has been tweaked a few times during the intervening years, but the principle remains the same that some ratings can often be interpreted more accurately with the addition of a well-chosen symbol to emphasise a certain point.

Of course, the best-known of these symbols is the squiggle - or the "dreaded Timeform squiggle" to give it its full title - which denotes a horse which is viewed as unreliable for "temperamental or other reasons". Other common symbols are "x" for a poor jumper and "p" for horses likely to improve. 

A large "P", however, tends to be used much more sparingly and is reserved for those horses deemed capable of "much better form". As with a squiggle, a large "P" tends to raise eyebrows whenever it is awarded to a horse with a lofty rating - which brings us to Simonsig (c162P).

Nicky Henderson's grey has been little short of scintillating in winning both starts over fences to date, namely Grade 2 novices at Ascot and Kempton in December. In truth, that Ascot success wasn't the easiest to assess - he easily beat sole other finisher Sulpius by 49 lengths after their three rivals had departed some way out - so a large "P" on top of the bare form that day seemed the prudent way to go.

All four of Simonsig's rivals got round safely in the Kempton race, yet he won in similarly effortless fashion and certainly deserves to be rated as the best novice chaser seen out so fair in Britain or Ireland. The retention of his large "P", meanwhile, is a reflection not only of the manner of his Kempton performance, but also that the bare form could actually have been rated even higher - runner-up Hinterland (c137) may have been eased late on but, even allowing for that, we've still got him running some way below the form he showed when chasing home another Henderson inmate Captain Conan (c150p) in Grade 1 company at Sandown the time before.

The margin back to Hinterland was 35 lengths in the end, with a further 11 lengths back to Wings of Smoke, who'd landed a competitive 0-125 handicap chase at Newbury in late-November (the form of which has worked out very well), yet has been rated as running some 32lb below the rating he'd achieved that day. Given that backdrop, we don't feel we're guilty of over-egging pudding by retaining a large "P" with Simonsig, who already looks a worthy successor to his stable's superstar novice chaser of 2011/12, Sprinter Sacre (c183p).

Simonsig wasn't the only Henderson-trained chaser to burst into Timeform's top twenty novice list with a wide-margin win over the festive period. In truth, the French import Rajdhani Express (c147) had proved something of a let-down since arriving on these shores with a lofty reputation last winter, but he's making up for lost time judging by a runway win at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Admittedly the two-and-half mile novice handicap chase he won did turn into something of a war of attrition, with five of the eight runners failing to complete, but a 34-length defeat of Milarrow clearly represents improved form - even if Rajdhani Express may prove a shade flattered by that winning margin (hence the lack of a symbol with his rating), the manner in which he travelled through the race suggests he won't be out of place in graded novice company.

A step-up in class also looks on the cards for the Paul Nicholls-trained Rolling Aces (c144p), who took advantage of a simple task in pleasing fashion at Wincanton later on Boxing Day. If anything, however, it is his win in an ultra-competitive novice handicap at Newbury earlier in December which marks him out as a young chaser going places - that form has proved particularly strong and, with further improvement deemed likely when tackling even longer trips, we feel Rolling Aces could be figuring higher up our top novice list before the season is out.

Timeform's top-rated novice chasers:
162P SIMONSIG Nicky Henderson
158p DYNASTE (Fr) David Pipe
158 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE (Fr) Willie Mullins, Ireland
152p BACK IN FOCUS (Ire) Willie Mullins, Ireland
151 AUPCHARLIE (Ire) Willie Mullins, Ireland
150p CAPTAIN CONAN (Fr) Nicky Henderson
149 OUR FATHER (Ire) David Pipe
148 OSCARS WELL (Ire) Jessica Harrington, Ireland
147p HIGHLAND LODGE (Ire) Emma Lavelle
147+ UNIONISTE (Fr) Paul Nicholls
147 BAILY GREEN (Ire) Mouse Morris, Ireland
147 FINGAL BAY (Ire) Philip Hobbs
147 HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (Fr) Venetia Williams 
147 RAJDHANI EXPRESS (Fr) Nicky Henderson
147 TOFINO BAY (Ire) Dessie Hughes, Ireland

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