Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Can Vaughan survive tough test?

Will Michael Vaughan be the Latin King this weekend?

Betfair Amabassador Michael Vaughan is back in Latin for Saturday's Strictly Come Dancing, and can the 'Tequila ' inspired routine save the former England cricketer? Our man Alan Dudman thinks the market might be correct, whilst Louis faces crunchtime.

I made several bold statements last week, the bravest being that Denise Van Outen is hunting down Susanna Hoffs as my all-time number one crush. Regular readers of this column will know that no one comes close to the Bangles lead singer - even if Van Outen goes on to win Strictly.

The other prediction however was more accurate, as the Essex presenter has finally been installed as the favourite in the winner market at 2.3211/8, and quite right too, her dancing over the last three weeks has been superlative.

On the less superlative front (if there is such a phrase) the BBC have announced a new Christmas special involving a galaxy of former stars. Natasha Kaplinksy is back, so is Kelly Brook (remember her?) and the mighty Helen Skelton. However, the big draw is Bobby Ball - he is the galaxy, the topic and the mars bar all rolled into one.

This Saturday will be crucial for Louis Smith. The former favourite has drifted to 2.789/5 in the winner market but more alarmingly is available to back at 4.507/2 in this week's highest scorer market. Behind not only Denise, but also Dani.

The problem with Smith has been gaining the character for the dance. The gymnast seems a lovely guy, but is lacking that oomph in the expression department - which is needed for routines such as the salsa and the tango.

He is facing the Charleston this weekend, which is my favourite dance. The qualities needed for this 'funster' routine is character driven - all smiley faces. Smith collected a 'seven' from the judges last weekend, and he really needs to prove himself with this dance. The good thing for his backers is that the Charleston can produce high marks - as seen this series with Denise and Nicky.

Amazingly Louis is trading at 5.609/2 for the bottom two.

Betfair Ambassador Michael Vaughan has performed wonderfully over the series, especially in ballroom. And getting a place in the final seven dancers has surprised plenty. However, the former England cricketer could be in trouble this weekend looking at the prices. Vaughan is 1.402/5 for bottom two, and 1.608/13 for lowest scorer.

He was in the red zone last week but danced really well to survive, however he has the Latin again, which has not been his best discipline. The samba is the dance that is feared, although Vaughan and his partner spoke positively in this week's 'Takes Two', it might be a tough one to pull off.

Sevens and eights are not good enough at this stage, which means Kimberley has to make her move on the leaders. Her 34 point fiery tango last Saturday was good, in particular the Joan Collins 'Dynasty' style pout - and she certainly got the mood and character. The Girls Aloud singer was a bit loose in hold last Saturday, but has the different jive to contend with this weekend.

This will be a pretty tricky dance, and her partner Pash is lightning fast at this. She is consistent, but her price of 5.04/1 for highest scorer reflects that maybe she is lacking that special routine.

Lisa Riley had a tough time last week, and there were at least three seconds in which she failed to speak. The motormouth didn't blow the judges away and her quickstep won't be as good as some of the other routines this Saturday. The actress has avoided the bottom two so far, but trades at 2.3411/8 to make it there for Saturday and I don't think she is up to collecting nines.

The biggest mover last week was Nicky Byrne and his breakthrough Charleston. Nines were awarded and the judges were blown away by the improvement, but the Charleston is the dance that can produce high marks, as constantly reminded by Chris Hollins - who unsurprisingly will be making an appearance in the yuletide special. I can never free myself of Hollins it seems.

Byrne is still a runner in the top male market at 5.805/1, considering Louis Smith is regressive and yet is 1.141/7. The singer is currently 4.607/2 for elimination, but his dancing may be good enough to save him in the bottom two - if he faces Michael or Lisa.

Dani Harmer is still going great guns, and her winner market price has halved in two weeks and she trades at 11.0010/1. She is certainly top three material and took some huge gambles with her 'Beyonce' inspired routine last Saturday. She is very technical and produced a brilliant 36 point samba last Saturday - one point behind Denise. She has a great relationship with her partner Vincent (which can be crucial) and is improving all the time.

The pocket actress is facing the daunting Viennese waltz, the dance with constant turns and difficult steps. However, she is so accurate, there is no reason to think she cannot hit 36 points again. She can backed at 3.1511/5 for highest scorer, behind Denise at 1.654/6.

Van Outen's price is fairly ominous for the rest of the crew, but she is so good. Her ability to flit in and out of styles is staggering, which is why this week's salsa should be no problem. Her last two scores have been 37 and 39 and she ought to justify her short price for Saturday.

Her choice of song is DeBarge's 'Rhythym Of The Night', a corking track from the eighties which sadly cemented their position as a one hit wonder - something that Van Outen is not.

Week nine recommended bets:
Back Michael Vaughan as lowest scorer @ 1.664/6
Back Michael Vaughan for eighth elimination at 2.0811/10
Back Lisa Riley in bottom two @ 2.407/5