Premier League Tips: Saints to sin at St Mary's

Matt Le Tissier's reaction after reading this article

On the back of a poor week in the Premier League, Paul Robinson has promised to bounce back with some winners in the last set of top flight games before Christmas. Here are his selections:

Southampton v Sunderland  
Back Sunderland @ 3.6 (13/5) 
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 3.2 (11/5) 

Sunderland travel to Southampton with boss, Martin O'Neill, under pressure after just three wins all season. The Black Cats are quite a tempting price though and I feel it can't be left unbacked against a Southampton side who are still finding their feet in the Premier League.

Sunderland picked up a much needed victory over Reading in their last home match and while they fell to a 3-1 defeat at Old Trafford afterwards, I think it's fair to say that we can excuse them for that. There isn't much recent form to suggest that the Wearsiders will pick up the victory here, but there a few small signs that their flair players - Sessegnon, Johnson and McClean - are running into a bit of form. All three have scored at least once in their last trio of matches, and with Steven Fletcher back to full fitness, they should pose plenty of problems for Southampton's defence.

The Saints have won three of their last five and that has certainly eased the pressure on Nigel Adkins. They've climbed out of the relegation zone and have a game in hand over their rivals. Their results at St Mary's have been strong in recent weeks, although I have my doubts about the strength of that form. They've beaten a misfiring Newcastle side and scraped past Reading, while sharing the spoils with Swansea and Norwich.  On top of that, skipper, Adam Lallana, has been ruled out with injury and he is one of their main creative forces.

Six out of Sunderland's nine away games this term have gone over 2.5 goals and while Southampton have tightened up at the back lately, I think we could be in for a high scoring match. Over 3.5 @ 3.2 (11/5) is worth having a nibble at as it seems a touch overpriced to me.

West Ham v Everton  
Back the draw @ 3.1 (21/10)  
Back Everton/Draw @ 13.0 (12/1)  
Back West Ham/Draw @ 13.0 (12/1)

The Hammers take on the Toffees at Upton Park and I can't see this ending in anything other than a draw.

West Ham earned a hard fought point at the Hawthorns on Sunday and it will lift the players after they let a 2-1 lead slip at home to Liverpool in their previous outing. That loss to the Reds was their first at Upton Park since the start of October, with the undoubted highlight being the 3-1 victory over Chelsea. Sam Allardyce has plenty of injury concerns ahead of this one though as he is missing the likes of Mohamed Diam, Andy Carroll and Ricardo Vaz T.

Everton picked up yet another draw, their eighth in 11 matches, at Stoke on Saturday, but of course the big story coming out of it was Marouane Fellaini's treatment of Ryan Shawcross and his subsequent three game ban. Unfortunately for David Moyes, Kevin Mirallas is also sidelined so he will likely have to play Steven Naismith off Jelavic, which weakens their attacking threat. 

The Blues are hard to predict in terms of who scores first this term so I think that there could be some value in the HT/FT market. You can back Everton/Draw and West Ham/Draw both at 13.0 (12/1) so if you dutch those two outcomes, you will make an 11pt profit if either come in.

Liverpool v Fulham  
Back Liverpool @ 1.5 (1/2)  
Back Liverpool to win 2-0 @ 7.0 (6/1)

Liverpool were dealt a body blow by Aston Villa last weekend after they'd just started to get some momentum together. In truth they should have been comfortably ahead by the half hour mark and I don't expect them to make the same mistake twice.

The spotlight has fallen back on to Brendan Rodgers and it will be interesting to see what side he picks for this one. He has spoken of resting Raheem Sterling and Joe Allen at some point over Christmas and with two tricky away games coming up, Saturday could be the time to do it. Funnily enough I think it would benefit the side as they both look very jaded and have been pretty ineffective for a number of weeks. Jose Enrique could be restored to the front three and while he lacks a bit of skill and composure, he brings power and directness. 

Fulham earned a much needed three points at home to Newcastle last week but they then went and lost at QPR and their away form must be a huge concern for Martin Jol. They have won just once away from the Cottage all season and their performances have dipped notably in the continued absence of Bryan Ruiz. The Costa Rican's injury has a knock on effect on Dimitar Berbatov, as the star striker is forced to drop deeper and play the role of creator.

Liverpool have kept four clean sheets in their last half dozen Premier League matches at Anfield, while Fulham have scored just once in their last three away. A correct score of 2-0 looks good at 7.0 (6/1) as I strongly fancy the Reds to get back to winning ways.

Recommended Bets
Back Sunderland @ 3.6 (13/5) 
Back Over 3.5 goals in Southampton v Sunderland @ 3.2 (11/5) 
Back a West Ham v Everton draw @ 3.1 (21/10)  
Back Everton/Draw in the HT/FT market @ 13.0 (12/1)  
Back West Ham/Draw in the HT/FT market @ 13.0 (12/1)  
Back Liverpool @ 1.5 (1/2)  
Back Liverpool to win 2-0 @ 7.0 (6/1) 

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2012/13 Season P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 91 pts
Returned: 82.99 pts
P/L -8.01 pts