Inevitable City Would Lose Unbeaten Home Record

Inevitable City Would Lose Unbeaten Home Record

By Michael Gales Dec 10, 2012

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Man City’s impressive 37 home Premier League unbeaten record was finally broken by Manchester United on Sunday, December 9th in dramatic fashion. Regression to the mean always implied that City would lose eventually.

Since Sheikh Mansour completed his takeover in September 2008, Manchester City have been a team on the rise. Backed by their owner’s 537m investment in players, City have won the Premier League, the FA Cup and the Community Shield in four seasons – and had been unbeaten in 37 Premier League games at home.

City suffered – on average – a home defeat every eight games since the takeover, suggesting that the run would not continue and the side would regress to the mean over time. At home, City have averaged 2.75 defeats per Premier League season.

One contributing factor to City’s amazing turnaround is their fantastic Home Field Advantage (HFA) since the takeover, scoring an average of 1.36 more goals a game than their opposition at home.

During their unbeaten home run, this increased to a massive 2.03 goals. To put that in perspective, Man Utd’s HFA for 2011-12 was 1.73, while Chelsea’s was just 0.89. (Learn more about calculating Home Field Advantage here).

Home Defeats?

Despite easily surpassing their average amount of games (8) before suffering a home defeat and increasing their HFA by 50%, there were a number of factors which would determine when Man City would lose their unbeaten record, and return closer to their average number of defeats a season.

Factors such as the referee’s performance, injuries, the amount of football they play and Internationals could have all conspired to end their home winning run, although it was feisty Manchester derby that saw United end City’s run.

After coming back from 2-0 down to equalize in the 86th minute, City went in search of the winner, however it was rivals United that scored in the 92nd minute thanks to a deflected Robin Van Persie freekick.

Ultimately despite receiving their fair share of luck in their unbeaten run it was an unlucky turn that conspired to bring their run to an end.

Effects of the Winning Run

Since the takeover in 2008, Man City’s odds to win have gradually shortened over the five seasons, which is to be expected given their impressive Premier League form over that period. As City improve, their potential winnings have shrunk along with their odds.

Since the start of their 37 game unbeaten home run in the Premier League, the biggest change in odds has been for them to lose or draw. The graph above shows that the longer City remained undefeated; the opportunity to make a profit for them to draw or lose at home greatens as the odds for the rivals getting a result lengthen.

This suggests that the longer a team goes unbeaten, the more profitable it is to bet against their success.

Thinking of betting on Man City in the Premier League? Pinnacle Sports offer the best 12 odds online for all Premier League games.

*Odds subject to change

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