Handicappers' Corner: Mud, mud, glorious mud!

The mud was flying at Cheltenham on Saturday

"If you pray for rain, be prepared to deal with some mud" is an adage which has come back to haunt trainers this winter, with those connections traditionally reluctant to risk their charges on firmish ground now having to contend with conditions at the other extreme...

Saturday's valuable card at Cheltenham was a case in point, with the prevailing heavy ground resulting in just forty-six runners for the seven races (including two three-runner affairs over hurdles). Racegoers weren't the only ones left frustrated by this scenario, as small fields and rain-drenched conditions are usually the recipe for plenty of handicapping headaches too!

Even though Timeform uses a pounds-per-length formula which aims to take into account both ground conditions and the merit of a horse's winning time, there are still occasions when results throw up exaggerated margins due to very heavy ground and it usually pays to take a conservative approach when rating such performances, explains jumps handicapper Phil Turner.

For example, the staying novice chase at Cheltenham on Saturday saw Highland Lodge (Timeform rating c147p) beat last-time-out winner Our Father (c149) by twenty-two lengths, with the remaining three runners coming home at intervals of twenty-one lengths, twenty-five lengths and thirty lengths. A literal interpretation of that form could see Highland Lodge with a rating usually awarded to Cheltenham Gold Cup hopefuls, but it seems prudent to take a more cautious view for now - indeed, the fact that Our Father failed to last home in the conditions on Saturday, plus that he showed regressive form after a similarly impressive reappearance win in 2011/12, strongly suggests he hasn't given his running.

Saturday's big race, the Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup, attracted a decent field and was won in taking fashion by another unexposed novice, namely the four-year-old Unioniste (c147+). However, for one reason or another, this didn't prove so strong a race as one would normally associate with a valuable Cheltenham handicap at around two-and-a-half miles - fancied runners Nadiya de La Vega, Notus de La Tour and the ill-fated Cristal Bonus were all out of the race by halfway - and we've also taken a conservative view of this form for now.

Time may show that we've underestimated the winning performance put up by the sure-footed Unioniste - the "+" is an acknowledgement that his rating could be significantly higher - but what isn't in doubt is that he paid a huge compliment to Timeform's highest-rated staying novice chaser Dynaste (c158p), whose form also received a boost when another of his recent victims, Court In Motion (c141p), took advantage of a weight pull with Houblon des Obeaux (c147) to land the Grade 2 RSA Trial Chase at Lingfield earlier that afternoon.

Hurdlers dominated proceedings for the remainder of the Cheltenham card, with Zarkandar (h167+) making full use of the 4lb he was receiving from his two main rivals to win the International Hurdle by two lengths from Grandouet (h168), with a further six lengths back to the reigning champion Rock On Ruby (h171). 

In truth, Saturday's race could be used as evidence to enhance the Champion Hurdle claims of all three horses. Zarkandar has clearly returned at the top of his game this season, whilst the fact he had the measure of Grandouet in their juvenile days shouldn't be overlooked. Grandouet, meanwhile, would probably be ideally suited by less testing conditions and could prove a different proposition should the ground have dried out by next March. It is Rock On Ruby who remains the highest-rated of the trio, however, simply shaping as if the run was just needed on Saturday and certainly showing enough to suggest he'll be capable of posting that Champion Hurdle-winning rating on another day.

To muddy the waters even further, though, Oscar Whisky (h167+) turned the Relkeel Hurdle into a procession some thirty-five minutes and, despite that race's longer trip, it could be viewed as significant that he clocked a faster time in the latter stages than Zarkandar and co had done in the International. He'd clearly be an interesting runner if allowed to take his chance in the Champion Hurdle again, having finished third to Hurricane Fly (h173) back in 2011.

Timeform's top-rated novice chasers:
158p ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE (Fr) Willie Mullins, Ireland
158p DYNASTE (Fr) David Pipe
150p CAPTAIN CONAN (Fr) Nicky Henderson
149 OUR FATHER (Ire) David Pipe
148p BACK IN FOCUS (Ire) Willie Mullins, Ireland
147p HIGHLAND LODGE (Ire) Emma Lavelle
147p OSCARS WELL (Ire) Jessica Harrington, Ireland
147+ UNIONISTE (Fr) Paul Nicholls
147 BAILY GREEN (Ire) Mouse Morris, Ireland
147 DEDIGOUT (Ire) Tony Martin, Ireland
147 FINGAL BAY (Ire) Philip Hobbs
147 HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (Fr) Venetia Williams 
147 TOFINO BAY (Ire) Dessie Hughes, Ireland

Half-price Race Passes with brand new features - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. And get a FREE gift too! Find out more at timeform.com.