суббота, 8 декабря 2012 г.

Graham Cunningham's In-Play Blog: Tingle Creek day

Sprinter Sacre is an extraordinary talent says GC

Sandown sets the stage for what could be one of the most explosive chasing battles seen in years this Saturday. Something has to give as the imperious Sprinter Sacre and the ferocious front runner Sanctuaire place their unbeaten records on the line in the Tingle Creek Chase and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is confident that the stalker can prevail in the latest instalment of his weekend In-Play blog...

Sprinter looks sacred Tingle Creek value despite the short price

BHA figures indicate that we might have a proper race on our hands, while Timeform figures suggest one way traffic from the final fence.

It's all about opinions, as Derek "Thommo" Thompson might say, but I'm firmly in the Timeform camp in thinking that Sprinter Sacre can put Sanctuaire firmly in his place in Saturday's Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown.

Sanctuaire earned a Timeform mark of 169 for his trailblazing exploits as a novice and the way he blitzed smart rivals over this course and distance in April was mighty impressive. However, in Sprinter Sacre he comes up against one of the most exciting chasing prospects Timeform have ever come across.

Very few novice chasers ever earn a TF mark of 170 and it's unprecedented for one to be awarded 180.

However, Sprinter Sacre is Timeform's highest rated jumper in training after just five starts over fences and the way he demolished good horses in Newbury's Game Spirit and the Arkle at Cheltenham was a joy to behold.

The tactical profile here is simple in that Ruby Walsh will let Sanctuaire blaze from the off, but I suspect that will only help Sprinter Sacre show the full range of his extraordinary talents.

He's clearly not a trading proposition at odds on, but the key to winning money on Betfair lies in finding horses who are a bigger price than they should be.

And, for what it's worth, I reckon that Sprinter Sacre should be more like 1.330/100 than the current 1.4740/85 on offer.

Say Hello to Currency as Aintree comes under the spotlight again

Can it really be eight months since the latest controversy over equine deaths in the Grand National?

Aintree opens its doors again with further modifications to the famous fences this weekend and, after a wet and windy week, only strong stayers need apply for the Becher Chase and the Grand Sefton Chase.

Betfair's market on the Becher is wide open and it's possible to make a case for plenty, but I suspect that Hello Bud and Any Currency offer much better back to lay mileage than most.

Granted, it's a long while since a good race over jumps fell to a 14-year-old but the freewheeling Hello Bud still has plenty of fire in his belly based on a fine seventh in the latest running of the National.

Tactics for the hugely popular veteran pick themselves and although it's asking a fair bit to see them all off here I strongly suspect that Hello Bud retains enough ability to trade a good deal shorter than his current big price.

Any Currency is a very different character to Hello Bud in that he can be a slightly lazy customer who can run in snatches on occasion. However, his canny trainer Martin Keighley has regarded him as the right sort for Aintree for some while now.

That ambition was thwarted when Any Currency just missed the cut for this year's National, but he's bang in form and this notably safe jumper could have a major say in the finish if he can stay in touch once the leaders up the pace on the final circuit.

The presence of Little Josh and Nacarat in the Grand Sefton should ensure a true gallop and a high premium on jumping and again there will be money for a wide spread of runners.

However, it's probably as well to keep things safe here and take Chance Du Roy as the back to lay option.

Consistency and willingness to tough it out are this gelding's main assets. He's very fairly treated from just 2lb higher than when a fine second over course and distance in a red hot Topham Trophy and a spin over hurdles on his reappearance ought to leave him spot on for his return to Liverpool.

Can O'Meara's improver defy the assessor - Why Not?

Five minutes before the last race at Sandown on Friday I was fairly confident that Ifandbutwhynot might be able to do this column another good turn in Saturday's 14.30 back at Esher.

And two seconds after that finale was over the confidence increased considerably.

Put simply, Ifandbutwhynot is a highly progressive young hurdler who bolted up from a big field of handicappers at Cheltenham on his latest start.

The handicapper was clearly impressed in raising David O'Meara's gelding by 13lb, but the Cheltenham win was given a very solid look when two of his Cheltenham victims dominated the Sandown finish.

What's more, Ifandbutwhynot has that easy going holdup style which is made for In-Play trading.

He showed a striking turn of foot after being hampered two out at Cheltenham and Denis O'Regan's confident style only adds to the view that this is a horse with plenty in his favour again.

Saturday's Recommended Bets

Back Sprinter Sacre in Sandown's 15.05
Back Any Currency in Aintree's 14.10 and lay off at 4.03/1 in running
Back Hello Bud in Aintree's 14.10 and lay off at 6.05/1 in running
Back Ifandbutwhynot in Sandown's 14.30 and lay off at 2.01/1 in running
Back Chance Du Roy in Aintree's 15.20 and lay off at 3.02/1 in running

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