The Punter's In-Play Blog: Thompson the value, according to recent history

Michael Thompson – A good price according to recent Honda results

It's just too tough to call at the Tshwane Open right now and it's not much easier at the Honda, where we've reached the halfway stage and our man is tentatively putting his faith in recent stats...

10:20 - March 2, 2013
After a promising start to both events on day one, yesterday was a disappointment all round.

Jean Hugo set the tone at the Tshwane Open and Branden Grace, Brian Gay and Y.E Yang all shot over-par at the Honda Classic to ruin their good starts. Both events look really tough to call now and I'm sorely tempted to claim I'm suffering from chronic toothache and call it a day!

Thunder stopped play at the Tshwane Open yesterday and the afternoon starters had to return this morning to finish-up. Round three has now kicked off and birdies are flying in left, right and centre. I'm looking forward to watching it live on Sky in a few minutes (10.30 start) but it's just too difficult to make a call on at this stage and I'm keeping the powder dry for now.

At the Honda Classic, I was quite optimistic about the aforementioned Grace, Gay and Yang but of my battalion of outsiders, only Graham DeLaet is left flying the flag - he trails halfway leader, Luke Guthrie by two shots. I was hoping that a clear picture would have emerged by now and that I'd see one or two players to get onside in-running with confidence but that's not the case.

Recent results suggest being up with the pace is essential - the last four winners have all been within one of the lead at halfway, so if history is to repeat, then backing both Guthrie on -9 and Michael Thompson, a shot behind on -8, is the only way to go but surely it's not that simple. Both men are looking for their first PGA Tour titles and there are a host of quality names on their coattails.

I don't like the look of the leaderboard, it looks every bit as tricky as the one in South Africa and I could have easily waited to see what develops here also but I have had a small play on Thompson. Guthrie at single-figure odds looks short enough but I felt Thompson at 26.025/1 was worth a very small play, given the strength of that halfway stat.

12:10 - March 1, 2013
It was an interesting first day at the Honda Classic yesterday, where Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods both shot level par 70's to trail first round leader and each way pick of Dan Geraghty, Camilo Villegas, by six strokes. Woods was amongst the morning starters and played OK but struggled with his putting, whilst Rory, playing in the afternoon, found finding fairways tough.

I'm more than happy with the start of my picks, with both Graham DeLaet and Branden Grace tied for second on -5 and Y.E Yang, Brain Gay and Patrick Reed, all on -3. Of course, it's very early days and there are a number of top-quality players up in the van already, so I'm going to wait and see what today brings but I have pressed my Brian Gay bet...

Gay won twice in quick succession back in 2009, so another win is certainly possible and his win at the Humana Challenge was a real eye-opener. Until then, his record in California had been poor - suggesting his game really is in great shape. He puts his new found form down to additional length off the tee but it was a hot putter that did the trick yesterday and considering he had a couple of horror holes, where he made a pair of double-bogeys, he did very well to finish on -3. I've topped-up at 85.084/1.

Don't get caught out at the Honda Classic...I know it's early but round two has already started!

It's been a disappointing morning to say the least at the Tshwane Open. When I woke-up, one of my pre-event picks, Jean Hugo, was three under-par through six holes and had hit the front. He'd been matched in single-figures and I was starting to get a little exited. I shouldn't have done. He played his remaining 12 holes in two over-par.

Charl Coetzee, a well-named golfer if nothing else, leads on -12 after a second round 65 but its recent winner and first round leader, Darren Fichardt, that I have my eye on. I'm a bit miffed that I missed the fact that, like Hugo, Fichardt, lives in Centurion and that this was his local course. Had I realised that before the off, at odds of around 28.027/1, I'd have gotten him onside.

With no pictures until 1.30pm, I'm hoping he doesn't get into his stride today. He's currently level for the day, playing the tougher front nine.

I'll return to this event and update the blog again at the close of play, if I get involved in-running, but I have a feeling that I'll be waiting until tomorrow. Low-scores are there for the taking I fancy there could be some big movers during round three.

Tshwane Open Pre-Event Selections:
Jean Hugo @ 150.0149/1
Espen Kofstad @ 250.0249/1
Simon Wakefield @ 380.0379/1

Honda Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Charl Schwartzel @ 17.016/1 - Fixed Odds market
Branden Grace @ 110.0109/1
Y.E Yang @ 130.0129/1
Ryan Palmer @ 150.0149/1
Ben Crane @ 140.0139/1
Brian Gay @ 170.0169/1
Matt Every @ 190.0189/1
Charlie Beljan @ 240.0239/1
Mark Wilson @ 300.0299/1
John Huh @ 300.0299/1
Ben Curtis @ 310.0309/1
Brian Harman @ 350.0349/1
Graham DeLaet @ 440.0439/1
George McNeil @ 460.0459/1
Patrick Reed @ 610.0609/1
Johnson Wagner @ 660.0659/1

In-Play Bets
Brian Gay @ 85.084/1
Michael Thompson @ 26.025/1

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