Can Mousasi upset the odds on UFC debut?

Can Mousasi upset the odds on UFC debut?

By Michael Gales Mar 22, 2013

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UFC on Fuel TV 9 sees Alexander Gustafsson fight Gegard Mousasi in his homeland of Sweden on April 6th. Gustafsson has his eyes set on a light heavyweight title fight, but can UFC debutant Mousasi end his dreams in front of a partisan crowd in Stockholm?

The ‘Mauler’ favourite to win on home soil

Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafsson 1.145* has his sights firmly set on a light heavyweight title bout against Jon Jones, however the Swede must first fight arguably his most dangerous opponent – former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi 3.150*.

The Swedish superstar returns home to fight in Stockholm at UFC on Fuel TV 9 for the first time in 12 months, while Mousasi will make his much-anticipated UFC debut.

The Mauler has an impressive MMA record with 15 wins and just one defeat – a submission against Phil Davis – while his opponent Mousasi (33-3-2) will enter the cage having lost just one fight in his last 22 outings.

The defeat against Davis in 2010 triggered a transformation for the 26-year-old into a light heavyweight contender – he improved his training, and joined Davis at Alliance MMA to improve his overall skillset.

The move proved successful with Gustafsson claiming six straight victories, including convincing decision wins over Thiago Silva and Mauricio Rua.

28-year-old Iranian Mousasi is exceptionally talented and has been considered a dark horse in Strikeforce for a while. With a sudden change in attitude towards training and fight preparation, he could be on the verge of turning his potential into reality.

Striking battle could prove decisive

Gustafsson has utilized his 76.5-inch reach to good affect in the past, however despite a four inch height disadvantage, Mousasi can match his range (76-inch reach) and holds a slight advantage in terms of striking power and technique.

Mousasi, who once flirted with the idea of boxing in the Olympics, has never been outstruck in 38 fights and lands an average 3.66 strikes per minute with a 51% success rate. Gustafsson lands an average of 3.98 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 36%.

Mousasi has a solid 70% striking defence compared to just 56% of Gustafsson. Both fighters operate an orthodox stance, however Gustafsson is a dangerous counter striker, while Mousasi punches very hard.

The ‘Mauler’ has nine KO wins, compared to Mousasi who has dropped 18 fighters. Significantly, neither man has succumbed to a knockout defeat.

If the fight hits the mat, who holds the advantage?

Despite both men favouring to fight on their feet, both are well rounded on the mat. Mousasi is an experienced judo fighter, and despite not possessing wrestling skills in the same caliber as Jones, he can pull off submissions from nothing.

With 11 victories via submission the Iranian averages 1.95 takedowns (55% accuracy) per 15 minutes, with an average of 1.76 submission attempts every 15 minutes.

Gustafsson earned his purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu following his loss to Phil Davis. His takedown defence (84%) has improved significantly, which was evident against dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts Thiago Silva and Mauricio Rua – surrendered just one takedown in both fights.

The Swede has won three fights via submission and averages 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of just 50%. Mousasi only rebuffs 50% of his opponents takedown attempts, so Gustafsson may attempt to add a third submission defeat on Mousasi.

A change in training could be vital for Mousasi

Following his draw with Keith Jardine, Mousasi decided to drastically alter his training regime. Known for being laid back and unprofessional in his approach to fight preparation he has hired a number of coaches to improve.

After making these drastic changes The Dreamcatcher made short work of former Olympian Hiroshi Izumi before beating both St. Preux and Mike Kyle in his final two bouts with Strikeforce.

Mousasi has recorded four decision wins and one loss, while the younger Gustafsson has three victories via decision – including his last two fights.

Click here for the best Gustafsson vs. Mousasi UFC on Fuel TV 9 betting odds

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*Odds subject to change