Premier League: Chelsea top four bid in doubt after latest managerial farce

Rafa Benitez's post-match comments caused controversy last night

Rafa Benitez has once again highlighted what an impossible job the Chelsea hotseat is. Luke Moore thinks the ex-Liverpool man was well within his rights to make his feelings known...

In what was actually a quite well-measured, obviously pre-prepared set of statements yesterday Rafa Benitez - already arch-enemy of the Chelsea fans due to some ill-informed yet completely innocuous comments while Liverpool manager - further alienated himself from the Stamford Bridge faithful after last night's FA Cup game against Middlesbrough.

The saddening aspects of all this furore around Benitez's appointment are all but ignored, and they are as follows:

- His original comments as Liverpool manager were, to all intents and purposes, completely harmless. If you take them word-for-word, you'd have to be pretty thin-skinned and altogether quite precious to actually take offence at them. He was managing another club and his remarks were clearly meant to tap into Liverpool's proud passion and history. He was essentially doing his job. Sir Alex Ferguson has been punchier plenty of times before and since on a whole range of subjects.

- Rafa Benitez is actually quite a good manager. He's won lots of pots - two La Ligas and a UEFA Cup with Valencia and a Champions League, an FA Cup and European Super Cup with Liverpool, as well as a second place Premier League finish (how they'd kill for that now). This is no rookie. It's surprising that, while personally he will always divide opinion, there should be no debate about what he has achieved and what he's capable of achieving as a manager. For instance, lots of people find Harry Redknapp disagreeable but there's at least an admission he's quite a good manager. With Benitez, it appears there is a constant open season on his track record, which, as I've already mentioned is actually quite good.

But the most salient point about the comments that Benitez made is that he is of course absolutely right. Chelsea fans need to support the club to help them achieve a top four finish this season and this sideshow, this bedsheet circus, this ship of fools that seeks to undermine the manager at every turn is so counter-productive as to be laughable. 

What the fans should be doing of course is protesting at the regime that fostered this ludicrous environment where every manager walks around with the air of a member of Stalin's cabinet, terrified that at any moment, one wrong comment, result or team selection is going to send them to a sort of footballing gulag where their only gainful employment will be in the company of Adrian Chiles on the ITV sofa, softened by the promise of an oligarch's payoff to forever hold their peace. They can't do this however because they've been dancing with the devil for so long now that they can't up and leave the ballroom when he turns out to have terrible personal hygiene issues. They're in for a penny, in for a pound. Or to be more precise, a billion pounds. 

Supporters can, of course, point to the numerous trophies picked up during the hire-and-fire years, including the European Cup. But this has cost vast amounts of cash, and who knows what Chelsea could have won had Roman's trigger finger been slightly less itchy. For all their money, Chelsea still cannot legitimately call themselves a European super power; they've not yet 'painted the world blue' as Peter Kenyon once famously said.

The ultimate feeling one emerges with from this latest saga in west London though is one of overriding sadness, as the game in this country adds yet another chapter to what is fast becoming a money-soaked Wodehouse farce with Roman Abramovich cast as Lady Constance Keeble and Rafa Benitez just the latest in a long line of unfairly cast Freddie Threepwoods. 

If the tragedy continues at this pace, the smart money would surely be laying Chelsea to finish in the top four at 1.341/3. Arsenal are in decent form (despite yet more misguided press attitudes) having only lost three of their last 19 league games and could pip them to fourth behind Spurs. Maybe, just maybe, if that happens we could persuade Mr Abramovich to leave Blandings for good and hand us our soap opera back. 

After all, under the 'leadership' of the FA and the Premier League, we were doing just fine being hapless without him anyway.

India v Australia Second Test Betting: Get on the hosts

Dhoni is the flavour of the month again

Ed Hawkins has little faith that the tourists can solve their problems against spin when game two starts in Hyderabad in the early hours of Saturday

India v Australia
Start time: 04.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

India
India picked three spinners to expose Australia's inexperience against spin in Chennai and it worked as they recorded a resounding eight-wicket victory inside 90 minutes of the fifth day. Ravi Ashwin, Harbhajan Singh and Ravi Jadeja were the tormentors-in-chief and we can expect more of the same in Deccan. Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni did the hard work with the willow. Billions in India are still drooling over Dhoni's double century. Not so long ago they wanted him sacked. Now he looks as though he will consolidate his position at number six.

Australia
Personnel is not the problem, it's personality. Australia need to learn a new one if they are to succeed in India, and quickly. They are ingenues at playing spin in this part of the world and only intensive brainwashing will do the trick. It was no surprise. In our preview for the first Test we highlighted this weakness and it will not be solved by Test two. There could be improvement later on in the series, though. Michael Clarke, as one would expect given his experience, was immense. Moises Henriques, one of the new breed, showed admirable qualities. But Australia need more from Shane Watson, another senior player. Watson may have to do some bowling if Australia drop a seamer and bring in Xavier Doherty, another spinner.

Innings runs
VVS Laxman, the former India batsman, described the pitch in his home town as "hard, firm and crumbling". In the previous Test played in Hyderabad, New Zealand were beaten soon after tea on the fourth day, with Ashwin and Pragyan Ojha taking 18 of the 20 wickets. That was only one of two tests played at the Rajiv Gandhi stadium. New Zealand appared in both, making 350 first up in a draw in 2010. But they were well defeated last time, being bowled out for 159 and 164. Australia, therefore, could be in trouble first up.

Match odds
When England defeated India a few weeks back, they did it with two spinners. But even if Australia remedy that by pairing Nathan Lyon and Doherty, they may not avoid enbarrassment. It is often forgotten that Indian batsmen can play average spinners - and Lyon and Doherty have more to prove to not be branded as such - in their sleep. It is half the battle. The other half is playing it in your sleep yourselves. Australia have night terrors at the moment. Of their 20 wickets to fall in Chennai, all of them fell to spin. That is extraordinary, even if the pitches are dustier at the end of the Indian season. It means Australia are unbackable. Australia are 4.707/2, India 2.186/5 and the draw is 2.962/1. That is a stonking price about the hosts.

Top India runscorer
Cheteshwar Pujara struck 159 last time out against New Zealand at this venue and although he did not make the headlines in Chennai ground form is always a good pointer. Pujara is 5.104/1. Man of the hour Dhoni is 5.004/1. Sachin Tendulkar is the 4.507/2 favourite.

Top Australia runscorer
Clarke is as skinny a favourite as there has ever been at 3.1511/5. The rests are at fives and sixes. But to be frank we may as well back Clarke for a half-century at around 2.001/1. Be wary of getting with d=David Warner. He has been suffering from finger problems and batted with a splint in Chennai.

Recommended bets
India to win at 2.186/5
Back Michael Clarke to score 50 at 2.001/1 or better

Timeform Daily: Friday, Newbury 14:55

Friday's Race of The Day comes from Newbury

Timeform examine each runner in a class 3 handicap chase at Newbury...

Wessex King put up a career best to score at Ludlow over 2m in April, but both efforts this term have been shockers, which tempers enthusiasm here.

Silver Roque was much improved when winning at Bangor (17f) on debut for new yard in October. Good placed efforts at Aintree and Cheltenham since and appeals as sort to go close after short break.

Oscar Hill was hooded when winning over hurdles at Huntingdon (claimer) and Taunton (seller) in November for Gordon Elliott, but was well-beaten third starting out for this yard over fences at Ludlow last month.

Keki Buku was a useful hurdler who has found frame on 4 of 5 completed starts over fences. Off 16 months and well backed, unseated second in 2m handicap at Sandown a week ago and probably worth another chance.

Heez A Cracker was a fairly useful hurdler for Emma Lavelle in 2010/11 and already at least as good over fences. Not harshly treated here on handicap chasing bow, though yet to win in this sphere, so is opposable.

Sew On Target jumped well when making all to get off mark over fences in 2m Chepstow handicap in January. Excuses when fourth twice since and not discounted if getting his own way up front.

Ballywatt was unfortunate to find one too good all 3 outings in handicaps at the backend of 2012 and respectable effort when third off this mark at Uttoxeter (2m) last month. Likely to remain competitive.

Fiftyonefiftyone was a fairly useful chaser in 2011. This season been disappointing, failing to build on more promising jumpers' bumper run back over fences at Doncaster last time, though mark continues to plummet.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Fiftyonefiftyone
2. Silver Roque
3. Keki Buku

Timeform View: Silver Roque improved for the change of scenery in the autumn and is likely to run well again, while Keki Buku will be a danger to all if his jumping holds up, but it might be worth giving Fiftyonefiftyone one more chance, as he posted a career-best effort in this event 2 years ago from a 10 lb higher mark.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Opta Stats: Lambert well set to breach QPR once again

QPR defender Chris Samba will face Rickie Lambert at St Mary's

Christian Crowther delves into the Opta stats to pick out four potential goal-getters from the weekend's Premier League games...

Manchester United v Norwich (Saturday, 15:00)
Robin van Persie has hit the woodwork seven times, more than six Premier League sides in their entirety
Man United's Dutch magician came inches away from giving his side a massive advantage over Real Madrid ahead of their Champions League second leg but his miscue allowed Xabi Alonso to scramble his volleyed effort off the line. It was uncharacteristic of the Red Devils goal machine but he's still the Premier League's top scorer and, after equalling his longest spell without a goal this season (three games), you'd have thought Norwich will make soft targets for van Persie to jump back on the wagon at Old Trafford. Of course, there are doubts over whether he will start after getting injured at QPR last week, so perhaps wait until the line-ups are announced to bet.
Recommended Bet: Back Robin van Persie to score @ 1.814/5

Southampton v QPR (Saturday, 15:00)
Rickie Lambert is the top scoring Englishman in the Premier League this season with 12 goals
Despite losing a thrilling encounter at Newcastle on Sunday, Southampton have looked invigorated since Mauricio Pochettino took charge. Their leading scorer Rickie Lambert has been in fine fettle since Christmas too, having racked up six league goals from ten Premier League appearances. Lambert was also the first player to breach the QPR lines in a resounding 3-1 victory at Loftus Road back in November.
Recommended Bet: Back Rickie Lambert to score @ 2.56/4

Sunderland v Fulham (Saturday, 15:00)
Of the players to score 10+ goals in the Premier League, Steven Fletcher has the joint-best shooting accuracy (62.5%) 
These are the sorts of stats managers would want associated with their strikers. Martin O'Neill raised more than a few eyebrows when he splashed out 14 million on the Scotsman, but his scoring return has delivered vindication for the boss. Sunderland are desperate for the points following three straight defeats and, after notching in the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage, Fletcher will fancy his chances of instigating a return to winning ways at the Stadium of Light.
Recommended Bet: Back Steven Fletcher to score @ 3.02/1
 
Swansea v Newcastle (Saturday, 15:00)
Moussa Sissoko has scored three goals in four Premier League appearances
Alan Pardew's cross-channel shopping spree appears to have been money well spent as his signings have contributed to a climb away from trouble in recent games. The pick of those French imports so far has to be Sissoko, signed from Toulouse. The 23-year-old midfielder has an appetite to get into the box and score goals and, given Swansea might be caught dozing after their League Cup heroics; the Frenchman should be a major threat once again.
Recommended Bet: Back Moussa Sissoko to score @ 6.05/1

Cheltenham Handicap Weights: Festival handicap weights revealed

The Cheltenham Festival gets underway on March 12.

There are a record number of entries for the 11 handicaps at this year's Festival and today the weights for those races were revealed...

Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins boasts a formidable team for The Festival and he accounts for the joint or sole top-weight in five of the 11 handicaps including Uncle Junior in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.
            
Following his victory in the Racing Plus Chase on Saturday, Opening Batsman would have to shoulder 12st 6 lb if he was to take up his engagement in the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase or 12st 1 lb if running in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase.
            
The David Pipe-trained Ballynagour, a facile winner on his British debut at Warwick last week, is now rated 148p by Timeform and has six possible targets at Cheltenham.
 
His Festival options are the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase, in which he has been allotted 11 stone, Coral Cup (10st 11 lb), Byrne Group Plate (10st 7 lb), Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (10st 10 lb), Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (11st 10 lb) and Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (10st 7 lb).
 
Meanwhile, it will take a high weight to be one of the 24 to make the cut for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle with 37 entries on 11st 6lb or above.

Click HERE to view a full list of the Festival weights.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Cheltenham Memories: Baracouda prevails in three-way battle

Caption: Baracouda and Iris's Gift fight it out after the last .

Not all eagerly-awaited clashes live up to expectations but the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle certainly did. Tony McFadden looks back on the contest...

Since becoming a four-day affair in 2005, the Thursday of the Cheltenham Festival - headlined by the World Hurdle - has attracted a fair bit of criticism, widely perceived to be the weakest day of the meeting with the feature race failing to match the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase or Gold Cup in terms of anticipation, excitement or quality. However, you will find few people who witnessed the thrilling battle between Baracouda, Iris's Gift and the remarkable Limestone Lad in 2003 willing to argue the case that the Stayers' Hurdle, as it was then known, wasn't strong enough to act as a standalone feature contest. In fact, despite Best Mate blitzing the Gold Cup field 40 minutes later for his second successive win in the race, it was the sight of three hurdlers, all at varying stages of their careers, scrapping up the hill at the end of a stamina-sapping, fiercely-run three mile contest that left the deepest impression in many minds.

Quite simply, the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle was the race that had everything. The clash between two genuine top-notch stayers in the shape of Limestone Lad, the seemingly ageless Irish veteran, and Baracouda, the defending Champion operating at the peak of his powers, had been long awaited. Relentless displays of galloping had yielded a scarcely fathomable 35 victories over a variety of distances for Limestone Lad, earning him a real public following; his undoubted bravery and tenacity were supplemented by a quick, fluent hurdling style that made him a formidable opponent. Baracouda, on the other hand, wasn't such a straightforward proposition, his much maligned rider, Thierry Doumen, insistent that the horse 'took a bit of knowing', his tendency to idle once hitting the front a notable quirk. These quirks hadn't prevented Baracouda from winning 10 of his previous 11 starts, however, including a comfortable success in the 2002 Stayers' Hurdle, and he really was a thoroughly consistent performer, not to mention a most exciting horse to watch with Doumen attempting to time his challenge as late as possible.

Considering the exceptional winning strike-rates boasted by Limestone Lad and Baracouda, it was somewhat surprising that they both entered the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle on the back of a loss, though, to steal a clich, 'they had lost nothing in defeat'. 

Racing over two miles in the Irish Champion Hurdle, Limestone Lad underlined his astonishing versatility and bravery, narrowly going down to Champion Hurdle bound Like-A-Butterfly in a protracted and memorable duel. Trying to make the most of his stamina, Barry Geraghty sent James Bowe's doughty front runner off at a strong pace, hoping to draw the sting out of Like-A-Butterfly; the plan nearly worked as Limestone Lad, in typical fashion, rallied courageously, a head being all that separated the pair at the line.

Baracouda also impressed in defeat, showing that he was still at the top of his game despite his winning sequence coming to an end at the hands of the mercurial Deano's Beeno. On a going day, Deano's Beano was a top-class hurdler and he was ridden to great effect at Ascot, Tony McCoy establishing a ten-length advantage and keeping enough in reserve to fight off Baracouda. Not for the first time, Thierry Doumen's riding of Baracouda came under intense scrutiny as he was heavily criticised in the media for employing the same exaggerated waiting tactics that had nearly caught him out at Ascot the time before. Connections, however, were adamant that, if anything, Baracouda needed to be delivered even later.

In the boxing world they say that styles make fights; it is a similar story in racing. Part of the attraction of the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle was knowing exactly how the jockeys of the main protagonists would ride their mounts. The confirmed front runner Limestone Lad was almost certain to blast off at the head of affairs, just as he had done for most of his career, setting a strong pace that brought resolution firmly to the forefront of required attributes. In contrast, Baracouda would be settled towards the rear, gradually picking off his rivals before launching one final late challenge as he attempted to retain his crown. 

With Limestone Lad in the field the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle was never going to be a tactical affair, it would be a thorough examination of a horse's ability, stamina and courage. It would be a proper championship contest.

As expected, Paul Carberry, who was back aboard James Bowe's warrior, sent Limestone Lad straight into the lead, setting a searching gallop from flag fall and establishing an advantage of a few lengths over the pursuing pack. Sticking to the script, Thierry Doumen had Baracouda settled towards the rear, though not affording Limestone Lad the same sort of lead Deano's Beeno and Mr Cool had enjoyed at Ascot earlier in the season.

As the contest developed, it was quickly apparent, however, that this was no two-horse race, the imposing grey novice Iris's Gift seemingly moving well, right on Limestone Lad's tail, matching him despite Carberry throwing his mount at every hurdle, trying to wind up the pressure with a succession of slick leaps. 

Safe in the knowledge his horse would keep finding for pressure, Carberry set sail for home at the top of the hill, cajoling his game partner along as they hurtled towards the second-last flight of hurdles. Iris's Gift, however, was still moving powerfully under a confident Geraghty, while, worryingly for backers of the Irish warrior, Baracouda, who had been niggled along briefly at the top of the hill, had come firmly back on the bridle, passing Classified and locking dead aim on the duelling duo out in front. Fluent jumps from both Limestone Lad and Iris's Gift at the second last saw them land almost level, Carberry certainly working the harder, pushing and shoving, asking his resolute partner to show his trademark grit, but Baracouda was moving menacingly, stalking them in third.

Swinging for home, Geraghty still looked untroubled aboard the novice Iris's Gift, pushing his mount alongside Limestone Lad without having to ask for maximum effort. But suddenly, and rather surprisingly, Doumen nudged Baracouda into the heat of the battle, making a line of three as they began the final lung-bursting climb for home, appearing to be going best of all. Approaching the last, for the first time in the contest, Limestone Lad was definitively headed, unable to match his rivals, despite the vociferous crowd roaring him on, jumping the final flight a length down in third.

In front plenty soon enough considering his tendency to idle, Baracouda had to fight off one final challenge from the rallying Iris's Gift, Doumen punching his mount out all the way to the line, prevailing by three-quarters of a length with a further five back to Limestone Lad in third. For the second year in a row, Doumen had completed the job, handling the intense pressure cast upon him and answering his critics in no uncertain terms. 

Though remaining a leading player on the staying hurdling scene, Baracouda would not win a third title at Cheltenham, his hat-trick bid foiled by the reopposing Iris's Gift who returned to the Festival a year older and wiser, turning the tables on Doumen's superstar in another memorable tussle. The colours of the Bowe family were once again represented, not by Limestone Lad, however. The 2003 Stayers' Hurdle represented the final chapter of a long, distinguished and remarkable career for Limestone Lad, carried out on his shield, producing a typically gallant performance up against two outstanding horses on ground quicker than ideal. He retired with a five-length verdict over Istabraq on his CV, an unprecedented and unblemished record in handicap hurdles, winning all nine of the races he contested in that sphere, and, though Cheltenham glory eluded him both times he crossed the Irish Sea, he is remembered as one of the toughest, most versatile horses of recent times.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase Preview: Your Attaglance guide

Malcolm Jefferson: trainer of Attaglance

Following the announcement of the handicap weights for the Festival, Keith Melrose takes a look at one of the opening day's more intriguing affairs.

Unless you're either new to racing or trusting to a fault, you'll already be familiar with the idea of horses spending whole seasons with one race at Cheltenham in March as their principal, or even sole, aim. You can probably name several examples, too; though just to be safe I won't invite you to do so!

The upshot of this, of course, is that we don't always know quite what order a horse is in leading up to the Festival, relying on their trainer's skill to get their charges ready for the 'big day'. The waters are muddied further in Festival handicaps, when we often don't know a horse's exact target until just a few days before the Supreme Novices' field is roared on its way.

There's another consideration for those campaigning their charge towards the Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase (or the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase, to use its official title), in that it's one of only three Festival races that are restricted in terms of ratings, the others being the Kim Muir and the Martin Pipe. The ceiling for the Centenary is a BHA mark of 140, lower than the Kim Muir (150) or Martin Pipe (145), so there's always the chance of a horse that isn't placed just right being priced, quite literally, out of the market.

There is a record entry of 86 for the Centenary this year, of which only 20 can eventually take their place in the line-up. On these bare facts the race could essentially become a handicap in name only (the current top 20 cover a narrow range of 135-140 on the BHA scale), but with so many doubly, triply or, as in the case of Carlito Brigante, sextuply entered at the Festival that number will inevitably whittle down.

As you might have guessed, Carlito Brigante is one of those who appear to have been kept back for the Festival, as evidenced by connections' fairly overt tactic of keeping him off the track (at least over jumps) since November. However, it's felt he'll take up one of his other five engagements, not least because his owners, Gigginstown House Stud, have another live contender for the Centenary whose campaign has seemed nearly as Cheltenham-oriented.

This time last year, your correspondent and several colleagues backed Toner d'Oudaries for the Coral Cup, as he looked like one for whom a Cheltenham handicap had been the plan all season. Apparently it had, but he ran in the Martin Pipe instead and probably should have won, seeming in control when sent on turning for home before being caught late in the piece by Attaglance. 

Since then, Toner d'Oudaries has switched to fences, with his gaining experience seemingly the main priority. It's an approach that seems to have worked well, as he jumped fluently on his latest start, eventually beaten off only by a well-entered Willie Mullins charge over a trip short of his ideal at Leopardstown. If Toner d'Oudaries is able to build on that, and we have faith in trainer Gordon Elliott drawing more from him, then he could look well treated in his bid to make amends for last year. 

The biggest doubt would be over whether Toner d'Oudaries will actually make the line-up, his allotted mark being just 129, 3 lb lower than what was needed to make it into the race last year. A win in the meantime, and the resultant 5 lb penalty, may well be needed to see him make the cut.

It's another whose season has taken a gradual upward curve that could be Toner d'Oudaries' main obstacle to redemption; in fact you could describe him as an old foe. Attaglance entered spring last year as the winner of a weak 0-135 at Market Rasen on his most recent start but ended it a dual festival winner, taking the Martin Pipe from under Toner d'Oudaries' nose before following up at Aintree from a 5 lb-higher BHA mark of 144. He initially struggled with his jumping over fences, but has developed with experience and went about his business in a much more professional manner at Musselburgh last time, admittedly grated an easy time of it up front that day but still doing enough to suggest he's got the hang of things over fences by now. What's more, Attaglance comes to the Festival rated 6 lb lower over fences than he was over hurdles this time last year. If he's primed for this- and the suspicion is he will be- there's a sporting chance of Attaglance securing back-to-back Festival wins.

We have time for a quick word on yet another whose season has appeared to revolve around a return to the Festival. You could reasonably say that White Star Line caught a tartar last year, finishing second to the rampant Hunt Ball in this very race from a higher mark than he looks set to shoulder this time around. His novice status retained for this season, White Star Line showed the first flicker of a return to form when a never-nearer second at Fairyhouse last time. He too holds multiple entries, but he'll be worthy of respect whichever engagement he ends up taking.

It'd be possible to nominate another half-dozen interesting types in this year's Centenary, but that's the nature of Cheltenham handicaps. There are improvers, unexposed types and those who've been campaigned with the Festival in mind at every turn and therefore confident selections are hard to come by. Your best bet in this race is probably to plump for a couple that are on good marks and have Festival handicap form to their name already, and the best part is that you can back Toner d'Oudaries and Attaglance at 19.5n/a and 12.011/1 respectively. Let's hope for the perfect end to the day that punters have had as their main aim all season.

Recommendations

Back Toner d'Oudaries @ 19.5n/a and Attaglance @ 12.011/1 in the Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle: Zamdy could be the Man

Zamdy Man could represent good value in the Fred Winter

Following the release of the Festival handicap weights, Tony McFadden looks ahead to the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle...

With 24 inexperienced juveniles charging around the Cheltenham undulations, the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle may not be everyone's idea of a good betting medium. However, when you consider the following race is the bumper, an even less attractive proposition unless you find a way to perm the 10 horses you have been assured are 'good things', salvaging the second day's losses suddenly rests on finding the winner of the fiendishly-difficult four-year-old affair!

Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh successfully combined to win the race in 2010 with Sanctuaire and they could be represented by a horse with a similar profile in recent Ludlow scorer Ptit Zig. Imported from France, Ptit Zig has only been given the one run by Nicholls, winning a low-key, all-aged novice hurdle at Ludlow. He has been awarded a lenient-looking mark of 130 following that decisive success, a figure that could significantly underestimate his ability. The form has subsequently taken a knock as the second-placed New Year's Eve disappointed badly at Doncaster, though it is worth noting John Ferguson's horse reportedly bled on that occasion, so it may not be a good idea to be too pessimistic about the merit of Ptit Zig's win.

Saphir du Rheu, who is also a Nicholls-trained French import, was slightly underwhelming on his British debut at Newbury, failing to meet market expectations in finishing a well-beaten third. However, he stepped up appreciably on that form at Taunton, always travelling well and quickening up to score decisively. He gives the impression that he is capable of a lot better, and it would be significant if Walsh elected to ride him over his promising stablemate, but, at this moment, Ptit Zig looks to hold marginally the stronger claims of the pair. 

Venetia Williams hasn't enjoyed too much success at the Festival, operating at a strike rate of just 3% during the past decade, but she has been in sensational form this season, a potent force in handicaps in particular, and appears to have a nice prospect in Zamdy Man. The fact Zamdy Man was thrown into Grade 1 company on his first start over timber says plenty about the regard in which he is held, and he went on to produce an improved effort at Huntingdon, travelling like a good horse for a long way. It was perhaps slightly disappointing that he couldn't justify strong support at Haydock on his latest start, but he was possibly still feeling the effects of the Huntingdon run, sweating up markedly in the preliminaries, so my inclination would be to forgive that run and concentrate on the conspicuous promise of his earlier efforts.

Another horse currently trading at a big price that looks capable of better is the Kim Bailey-trained Milord, a useful Flat performer in Germany that has shown steady improvement over hurdles, progressing with each run. His latest effort at Newbury was particularly promising, possibly flattered to finish so close to Chatterbox and Lac Fontana given the sedate gallop, but it was a good performance nevertheless. He looks especially interesting granted better ground and a strong gallop to chase and it could be a mistake to dismiss him.

As you would expect for a race of this nature, there are a number of horses that boast strong Flat form, and a couple possibly worth considering are Totalize and Bordoni. The former was very much unexposed on the Flat, having had only the four starts, and he has taken well to hurdling, not needing to improve on a highly-encouraging initial effort to score on his two most recent outings. His latest success at Kelso was particularly impressive, overcoming a positional bias to win with more in hand than the winning margin would suggest, and he would appear fairly treated with the promise of more to come. John Ferguson's Bordoni is evidently a horse that possesses plenty of ability, jumping well and travelling with real enthusiasm when scoring by a wide margin at Market Rasen, though it is a slight concern he ran out on his penultimate start with victory in sight at Ludlow.

Looking at the Irish angle, Willie Mullins unsurprisingly dominates the entries, responsible for six of the possible contenders; interestingly, these include two French imports that are unraced in Britain or Ireland in the shape of Kalmann and Viconte du Noyer. The phrase 'the market may offer the best guide' is an over-used term in racing, but there is little else you can really say about these completely unexposed recruits, and, given Mullins' exceptional record at improving horses, they would merit serious consideration were they the subject of market support.

To summarise, Paul Nicholls looks to hold a strong hand with a pair of French imports in Ptit Zig and Saphir du Rheu, the former granted slight preference based on a taking British debut success at Ludlow. This is a highly competitive renewal, however, and, at a price, we will also take a chance on the strong-travelling Zamdy Man relishing the fast tempo and getting back on the right track following a slightly 'flat' effort last time. Milord and Totalize are others that make significant appeal in a very open contest. 

Recommendation:
Back Ptit Zig @ 10.09/1
Back Zamdy Man @ 38.037/1

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

South Africa v Pakistan First T20 Betting: Let the toss be your guide

Faf du Plessis leads the Proteas

Ed Hawkins previews the first of two Twenty20 matches. Can South Africa's new-look squad take out an unpredictable Pakistan in Durban on Friday night?

South Africa v Pakistan
Start time: 16.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa
All change for the Proteas. Faf du Plessis is the new captain after AB De Villiers quit the role. De Villiers will play and as wicketkeeper, too. Hashim Amla will not as he has been asked to be rested for a year. He is the first of many big name absentees. There is no Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel or Jacques Kallis. Lonwabo Tsotsobe is the main strike bowler in the absence of the former two and Ryan McLaren the key all-rounder. Henry Davids, Aaron Phangiso, Chris Morris and Quinton de Kock, who made their T20 debuts against New Zealand, were retained.

Pakistan
Mohammad Hafeez leads a bunch which includes some old faces. The Akmal brothers are back, so too is Shahid Afridi and Wahab Riaz. Nasir Jamshed, the opener, is charged with scoring the runs but he had a poor Test leg of the tour. Saeed Ajmal and Umar Gul provide class with the ball. But otherwise this squad looks to have the same problem as the Test team - no batsmen. Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq are not involved.

First-innings runs
There have been nine completed T20 internationals at Kingsmead. The average first-innings score is 150. The lowest total has been 73 and the highest 218. Five of the nine matches have been won by the side batting first but we are concerned about the impact of the lights for the team batting second, particularly if it is Pakistan. They cannot cope with the swinging ball at the best of times so they could be severely tested.

Match odds
There is not much to like about either side to be frank. South Africa have been shorn of their star players, and by that we mean reliable folk who we know can cut it. Sure, some of the youngsters in the squad have the talent but it remains to be seen whether they have the temperament. Perhaps Pakistan have the edge, then. The Akmal brothers and Afridi are, at the least, game changers with the bat. They are also prone to be hopeless, however. As ever, the prices help. South Africa are as short as 1.674/6. That may turn out to be a value bet but it is too skinny for us considering we have worries about the toss. They are vulnerable, too against Messrs Gul and Riaz, who can bend it. A trade is possible on Pakistan but we are wary. Wait for the toss.

Top South Africa batsman
Of their top four runscorers in the last 12 months, South Africa are without three of them. Du Plessis is No 1 with 192 but JP Duminy, Kallis and Amla are absent. The coming man, however, is 4.507/2 shot Henry Davids. At 33, he is no spring chiken yet in three outings he has 143 runs at 47. He will open with Richard Levi. Du Plessis, who top scored last time at Durban in December against New Zealand, is at No 3 at will go off at 4.2016/5.

Top Pakistan batsman
There have been some pretty average performances in the last 12 months from this collection of batsmen. Of Hafeez, Jamshed, the Akmal brothers, Shoaib Malik and Shahid Afridi not one of them averages more than 29. Hafeez is the top runscorer over that time with 375 runs in 13 matches followed by Jamshed with 263. Jamshed is a favourite usually but we cannot abide him following his Test performances. It may be best to look down the order for experience in Shoaib.

Recommended bet
Back the side batting first

Timeform US SmartPlays: Thursday February 28

Timeform's US team bring you three bets on Thursday

Timeform's US team bring you selections from Aqueduct and Tampa Bay on Thursday...

Aqueduct race 3 (18:52 GMT) win back #1A READTHERESEARCH at 4.57/2 or longer
Tampa Bay race 7 (20:43 GMT) win back #1 SUMMER BREEZING at 3.55/2 or longer
Aqueduct race 8 (21:22 GMT) win back # 4 SACRED SUCCESS at 3.814/5 or longer

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Opta Stats: Reading to register late on away to Everton

The Royals have won a lot of their points late on in games

It's Opta time again as Christian Crowther serves up four Premier League bets to accompany four telling stats...

Chelsea v West Brom (Saturday, 15:00)
Chelsea have gone six Premier League games without keeping a clean sheet, winning only two games in that run
We all know Rafa loves a rant and that the Spaniard is also quite partial to a fact or two. One fact he won't like is Chelsea's inability to keep the opposition from scoring in the top-flight. Visitors West Brom should arrive full of confidence after putting together successive Premier League wins, one of them a 2-0 victory at Anfield. The Baggies have only failed to get on the scoresheet once in their last six league road trips.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.834/5

Everton v Reading (Saturday, 15:00)
Reading have won eight points thanks to goals scored after the 80th minute this season. Only league leaders Manchester United (9) have won more
Reading's quest for survival may just get a leg-up against an Everton side that they claimed their first victory of the season against in November. The Royals' best opportunity to get a result appears to lie in grabbing late goals, something Everton have been more than obliging in gifting to opponents this season. After Tottenham, the Toffees have dropped the most points this season as a result of goals scored after the 80th-minute mark.
Recommended Bet: Back Reading to score the last goal @ 4.216/5
 
Wigan v Liverpool (Saturday, 17:30, ESPN)
Wigan have conceded in all of their 13 home games in the Premier League this season
The Wigan rollercoaster took a definite climb skywards after the Latics thrashed relegation rivals Reading in their last Premier League game, though a plummet back to earth is never far away you feel. Having scored nine goals in their last four league games, Liverpool will certainly pose a threat here. In fact, only one of the Reds' last 12 league games have returned under 2.5 goals, while Wigan's last five have also breached the 2.5 barrier.
Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.774/5

Tottenham v Arsenal (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 1)
12 of the last 13 league matches between Tottenham and Arsenal have gone over 2.5 goals
This game promises to be such a belter that Sky Sports decided it was worthy of a stand-alone billing on Sunday (cue the 0-0!). With so much riding on the north London derby, it's hardly a surprising call, especially given the entertainment value that it has served up in recent seasons. The last two derbies alone have produced a staggering 14 goals and, with so much attacking talent on display, it's difficult to envisage this game bucking the recent trends.
Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.738/11

Lays of the Weekend: Lazio to check AC Milan's charge

AC Milan have not beaten Lazio in the last six Serie A meetings

After a rip-roaring three-from-three success in last week's column, Christian Crowther revs up the Lay Machine once again, mixing in some continental flavour...

Lay Over 2.5 goals in Leeds v Millwall @ 2.021/1
Although Neil Warnock dressed it up as a great piece of business in swapping top scorer Luciano Becchio for Norwich's Steve Morison plus a bit of cash, most could clearly see that the Canaries got the better deal. You can't blame Warnock for trying to put a brave face on it, but there's not one team in the land who wouldn't suffer from losing their leading marksmen. Leeds have drawn a blank in three out of their last four games and have not bagged more than twice at Elland Road in the league since September 1. Struggling Millwall have gone from promotion hopefuls to mid-table also-rans in recent weeks, losing five out of their last six Championship games and only registering four goals in that stretch.

Lay AC Milan to beat Lazio @ 1.75/7
It's an absolute blockbuster of a weekend in Serie A as first the top two play out a title decider in Naples on Friday, followed 24 hours later by this clash between Milan in fourth and Lazio in third. Of course, Milan's heroics against the mighty Barcelona have them down as short home favourites for the match, though a closer inspection of the stats show this may just be worth a lay. Lazio represent a real bogey team for the Rossoneri over the last three seasons, as Milan have not beaten the capital club in their last six Serie A encounters, losing the previous two, including the meeting earlier in the season. The visitors currently hold a two-point advantage and will probably set up for the draw.

Lay Real Sociedad to beat Real Betis @ 1.8810/11
After appearing to be slipping out of contention for the race for fourth, Betis emphatically announced themselves to be back in the hunt on Sunday. Pepe Mel's side produced a stunning 3-0 win over current fourth-spot incumbents Malaga, in a wholly one-sided contest in which Betis had 21 attempts on goal to their visitors' three. After a really rocky start to their campaign, Sociedad have put together a fine run consisting of just one loss in 15 La Liga games. They are now also right in the mix for the Champions League places as a result, but that run has produced six draws. Sociedad lost the corresponding league fixture 2-0 and, although they won the Basque Derby last weekend, Philippe Montanier's team have only won successive league games twice all season.

Home and Away: Back Al Ahly to extend lead in top spot

PAOK will be desperate to extend their impressive recent form this afternoon.

Jonno Turner focuses on action in Greece and Egypt as he aims to add to his four winners from six Home and Away selections this week.

There's not a lot to choose from in the footballing calendar today - but that's not to say that there isn't value out there.

We're off to Greece for our penultimate pick of February, as PAOK host Levadiakos at the Toumba Stadium, looking to make the most of home advantage in this first leg of the Greek cup quarter finals.

Giorgios Donis' side currently sit third in the Super League - just one point behind Asteras Tripolis in second - and will be keen to maintain the impressive form which has seen them lost just once in their 15 home outings this campaign.

Two consecutive 3-1 wins on their own patch will have the hosts full of confidence, and 12 goals notched in four at the Toumba underlines just how much attacking quality Donis has to choose from.

PAOK are likely to have practically a full squad available for this clash, with just Jacobo Overjero and Giorgios Georgiadis set to miss out, and no wins in four games on the road will have Donis well aware that his side need to make the most of their home advantage this evening.

Visitors Levadiakos travel to the Toumba Stadium out of form, and haven't won in four games ahead of this one.

That poor run has left the away side sitting seventh in the table, and three losses from their last four away from the Levadia Municipal Stadium.

Giorgios Paraschos' side haven't scored in their last two on the road, and will be desperate to arrest that slump in this tie.

The last time these two sides met, PAOK ran out 1-0 winners - and that makes six consecutive straight wins against Levadiakos at home for Donis' side.

Bet 1: PAOK (HOME) @ 1.54

Over to Egypt for our second tip - and if you fancy a dabble on this one, be quick, as it kicks off at 15.30 UK time - as Al Ahly travel to Haras El Hodood in the Premier League, looking to secure their fourth win from five league games.

The visitors sit top of the division after the season's early exchanges, and will be keen to maintain the impressive form which has seen them unbeaten in six of their last eight away from the Cairo Stadium.

Boss Hossam El-Badry will be keen for his side to show their quality this evening, and put more space between themselves and second placed ENPPI following a 1-0 loss to Smouha in their last one on their travels.

Their hosts go into this one in third place in the table, following two wins from their opening three games, and will be aiming to maintain that form here.

But a 1-0 loss to Telephonaat Beni Suef in their last outing will have knocked confidence down at the Alexandria club, and with Al Ahly having won the last four meetings between these two sides, history doesn't favour the home side either.

Helmi Toulan's side have conceded seven goals in those games, scoring just one - and I think that their opponents will make their superiority known once again here.

Bet 2: Al Ahly (AWAY) @ 2.02

Tottenham v Arsenal: The red half says back Gunners to win from behind

Bacary Sagna could be key to containing Gareth Bale on Sunday

Arsenal fan and Betfair man James Sutton is feeling positive about this weekend's North London Derby, provided Gareth Bale doesn't play through the middle...

After a breathtaking goal on Monday that would have sickened every Arsenal fan, the subject on everybody's lips ahead of this weekend's North London derby will be Gareth Bale, and believe it or not, that could actually work in Arsenal's favour. It means some of the focus will be taken away from the Gunners' 'calamitous' season thus far, and also that Sky's pre-match highlights reel and pundit's discussion will be all about the rise of the Welsh rocket, rather than the 'catastrophic' demise of Arsene Wenger's side.*

Now sitting in third position in the table and four points ahead of their fiercest rivals, Tottenham are understandably favourites for this encounter at 2.3811/8 (and expect that to shorten). But despite Spurs' recent form, unbeaten in the last ten in the league, they  haven't been putting teams to the sword and have only managed to win by more than one goal on two occasions.

Arsenal's league form isn't actually as bad as you might think, and that perception can be understood given all the recent media hype about Wenger's failures as a manager. They have only lost three of their last 19 in the league, only suffering defeats against Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs, and have managed to get themselves back within reach of a fourth place (and dare I say third place) finish.

I know it seems obvious but Gareth Bale really is going to be the key in this one - however the onus is on AVB to put the key in the right lock. If he plays the Welshman on the left then Arsenal may have a chance of managing him. Wenger will probably play Ramsey or Diaby on the right of midfield with the hope of doubling up on him with Sagna. However, if he plays Bale through the middle then I really do fear for Arsenal. There isn't enough steel in the midfield to contain him, with Arteta also being far too sluggish to stay close when he picks up the ball and makes those bursting runs.

Bale aside, one thing that's for sure is both these teams have a habit of scoring more goals in the second half of games. In addition, no ground has featured fewer first half goals this season that White Hart Lane (10). Having said that, twelve of the last thirteen league games between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals so there are signs that the flood gates will open up in the second half.

All things considered, I fancy it to be a fairly tight first half with perhaps the home side taking a 1-0 lead into the break at 4.57/2. But if that's the case, I then expect Arsenal to come out fighting in the second period, as they did against Chelsea and Liverpool, so there may be some value in backing the Gunners to win from behind when the price becomes available. One things for sure, most of the betting action for this one will be in-play...so get your laptops, mobiles and iPads at the ready and expect fireworks!
 
Recommended Bets

Back 1-0 at half time @ 4.57/2
Back Arsenal to win from behind (look for odds of around 8.07/1)

*Which really is a huge overreaction.

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Thursday February 28

Our final SmartPlay comes from Kempton this evening

Timeform bring you bets from three different venues on Thursday...

Michael Appleby is surely delighted that Southwell has reopened following the course's problems over the winter, firing in an extraordinary seven winners from as many runners on the fibresand, and the three-year-old Miako can add to that tally in the 15:20. A fair maiden on the Polytrack, it would be little surprise to see Miako take his form to a whole new level on this first attempt on the fibresand, considering he is bred to be effective on the surface and will be ideally suited to a strongly-run five furlongs.

Cool Friend may have only made a low-key start to her Point-to-Point career recently, but she was a fairly useful handicapper at her best and looks to have been found a good opportunity in the 16:30 at Ludlow. She was the best of these under Rules and, at ten-years-old, it is possible that she still retains a fair level of ability; in fact, she ran right up to her best on her penultimate start last year, beating Aldertune at Sandown, having previously chased home the ultra-progressive Hunt Ball at Kempton, and she has solid claims at this level.

Jumpers' bumpers certainly aren't to everyone's taste, but you would imagine Charles Egerton is fond of them given the success his Dr Livingstone (19:30 Kempton) has enjoyed. A dual-winner in that sphere, Dr Livingstone really impressed with his latest success in particular, bounding clear in the closing stages, crossing the line with loads in hand. This contest, which also takes place over two miles, is likely to place more emphasis on stamina than a jumpers' bumper, which are traditionally slowly-run affairs, but he is well treated based on the pick of his old form and can register another victory.

Timeform SmartPlays:
Back Miako @ 2.8815/8 in the 15:20 at Southwell
Back Cool Friend @ 3.39/4 in the 16:30 at Ludlow
Back Dr Livingstone @ 4.1n/a in the 19:30 at Kempton

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Against All Odds: Cercle to take something from Brugges derby

The Cercle Brugges players could be celebrating tonight

Club Brugge are quite long-odds on for their match with local rivals Cercle Brugge but with a hot atmosphere in place, Paul Robinson thinks the underdogs can take something from the game.

Cercle Brugge are having a dire season to date and they are rock bottom of the Belgian Jupiler League with just 14 points from 27 matches. They've lost their last six straight and haven't won in 11 fixtures. Foeke Booy was appointed as manager in November and he didn't get off to too bad a start as under his guidance the team avoided defeat in five of their first seven, including a win over Genk, but since then the wheels have started to come off.

One positive though is that the Green and Black have found success in the Cup. They have made it through to the semi-finals and not only did they win both legs of their quarter-final with KV Oostende, they knocked out today's opponents, 1-0, in the last 16. It is also interesting to note that at their home of the Jan Breydel Stadium, Cercle have lost just two of their last seven league games, both by a single goal margin.

Club Brugge have had a disappointing campaign thus far. Last year's second placed finishers are down in sixth this term, didn't make it through to the Champions League group phase and managed just four points in their Europa League group. They were also knocked out of the Belgian Cup as mentioned above.

Interestingly though, due to how the Jupiler League works in Belgium, they only need to finish in the top six to qualify for the Champion Play-Off, and they have a four point cushion to seventh with a game in hand.

While tonight's match is strictly an away fixture, the two club's share the same ground, so the players will feel more at home than for a standard away game. Nevertheless, Juan Carlos Garrido's men have won just one of their last half dozen in the league, and they were trailing in that match till their opponents had a man sent off on the hour mark.

Club Brugge are clearly the more likely to win this evening, however their odds represent little value. That's why at around the 1.654/6 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge @ 1.654/6

This match will be shown on Betfair Live Video at 19:30

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 58 pts
Returned: 53.35 pts
P/L – 4.65 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Lukaku absence offers Rafa stay of execution

Rafa's tenuous relationship with the Chelsea fans has now gone way beyond breaking point.

Jaymes Monte looks through the Opta stats for Saturday's Premier League 3pm kick-offs and picks out his best bets...

Chelsea 1.434/9 v West Brom 9.28/1; The Draw 5.04/1
West Brom haven't been the most welcome of opponents for Chelsea managers of late. The Blues have lost their last two Premier League clashes with the Baggies and they were the final matches in charge for both Andre Villas-Boas and Roberto Di Matteo respectively. Given his outburst in midweek, defeat here could well be the final act of Rafa Benitez as Chelsea manager.

Both those defeats, however, came at the Hawthorns. At Stamford Bridge the European champions have been much more dominant. Chelsea have won the last eight encounters at the Bridge and have scored 17 goals in the last six league fixtures here.

Romelu Lukaku is ineligible to play against his parent club and will be sorely missed for Steve Clarke's side. His absence should ensure Benitez does not go the way of his predecessors and they look good value to win without conceding given the Belgian's absence.
Best Bet: Back Chelsea to win to nil @ 2.56/4

Everton 1.412/5 v Reading 10.09/1; The Draw 5.14/1
Surprisingly, Everton have won only two of their five Premier League encounters with Reading, including a 2-1 loss at the Madejski earlier this season. But I wouldn't want to be opposing David Moyes' men here.

Instead we should look to the goals markets where Under 2.5 can be backed at a standout 2.466/4. Four of the five Premier League meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals, while they've only managed to score two goals between them in their last four games combined.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.3611/8

Man Utd 1.341/3 v Norwich 11.010/1; The Draw 6.05/1
I'm almost certain that Sir Alex Ferguson will opt to rest a number of key players this weekend. Their stranglehold on the Premier League top spot and Tuesday's massive game with Real Madrid ensures that.

That doesn't, however, give us reason to oppose United. Although Norwich took the reverse fixture at Carrow Road, the Canaries have won only once on their travels in the Premier League this season and haven't won at Old Trafford in the league since 1989.

What United's weakened team does mean is that they are much less of an attacking threat, and we can therefore get some value in the goals markets. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 2.56/4.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.56/4

Southampton 1.9110/11 v QPR 4.67/2; The Draw 3.7511/4
Queens Park Rangers head into this weekend's game with just two wins on the board. Only one of the three previous teams to win two or fewer of their opening 27 games in the top-flight have avoided relegation (West Brom in 2004-05) and only two of the last 11 sides to win three or fewer have ultimately survived.

However, the Rs do have a decent record against Southampton, with the Saints only managing five wins in the last 17 league encounters between the teams.

QPR have scored only four goals in their last 10 Premier League games, and that is obviously something that must improve if they are to have any chance of surviving. It's time for Harry Redknapp to throw caution to the wind and go for the jugular in these games.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9520/21

Stoke 2.186/5 v West Ham 4.03/1; The Draw 3.3512/5
Jussi Jskelinen's heroics against Tottenham last Monday, although ultimately in vain, mean that he has now made more saves in the Premier League than any other goalkeeper this season (109). And considering Premier League games between Stoke and West Ham have averaged only 2.1 goals per game, this looks like another low-scorer.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Sunderland 2.427/5 v Fulham 3.3512/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunderland have won only one of their last seven Premier League games against Fulham but that victory did come earlier this season in a slightly flattering 3-1 win at Craven Cottage.

The Black Cats have failed to score in six of their last nine Premier League games against Fulham, and have netted just twice in their last four matches against all opposition coming into this one.

This is unlikely to be one for the neutrals and looks to be the low-scoring banker of the weekend.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.784/5

Swansea 2.226/5 v Newcastle 3.55/2; The Draw 3.65n/a
The big question here is will Swansea suffer a League Cup hangover? The last two teams to win the League Cup (Liverpool and Birmingham) lost their first league games after lifting the trophy, and Michael Laudrup's side could well extend that stat against an improving and attacking Newcastle side.

Alan Pardew's men have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last three games but have won two of those matches, while they have taken nine points from their last four matches after taking only seven from the previous 13.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.8810/11

Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase Preview: Your Attaglance guide

Malcolm Jefferson: trainer of Attaglance

Following the announcement of the handicap weights for the Festival, Keith Melrose takes a look at one of the opening day's more intriguing affairs.

Unless you're either new to racing or trusting to a fault, you'll already be familiar with the idea of horses spending whole seasons with one race at Cheltenham in March as their principal, or even sole, aim. You can probably name several examples, too; though just to be safe I won't invite you to do so!

The upshot of this, of course, is that we don't always know quite what order a horse is in leading up to the Festival, relying on their trainer's skill to get their charges ready for the 'big day'. The waters are muddied further in Festival handicaps, when we often don't know a horse's exact target until just a few days before the Supreme Novices' field is roared on its way.

There's another consideration for those campaigning their charge towards the Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase (or the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase, to use its official title), in that it's one of only three Festival races that are restricted in terms of ratings, the others being the Kim Muir and the Martin Pipe. The ceiling for the Centenary is a BHA mark of 140, lower than the Kim Muir (150) or Martin Pipe (145), so there's always the chance of a horse that isn't placed just right being priced, quite literally, out of the market.

There is a record entry of 86 for the Centenary this year, of which only 20 can eventually take their place in the line-up. On these bare facts the race could essentially become a handicap in name only (the current top 20 cover a narrow range of 135-140 on the BHA scale), but with so many doubly, triply or, as in the case of Carlito Brigante, sextuply entered at the Festival that number will inevitably whittle down.

As you might have guessed, Carlito Brigante is one of those who appear to have been kept back for the Festival, as evidenced by connections' fairly overt tactic of keeping him off the track (at least over jumps) since November. However, it's felt he'll take up one of his other five engagements, not least because his owners, Gigginstown House Stud, have another live contender for the Centenary whose campaign has seemed nearly as Cheltenham-oriented.

This time last year, your correspondent and several colleagues backed Toner d'Oudaries for the Coral Cup, as he looked like one for whom a Cheltenham handicap had been the plan all season. Apparently it had, but he ran in the Martin Pipe instead and probably should have won, seeming in control when sent on turning for home before being caught late in the piece by Attaglance. 

Since then, Toner d'Oudaries has switched to fences, with his gaining experience seemingly the main priority. It's an approach that seems to have worked well, as he jumped fluently on his latest start, eventually beaten off only by a well-entered Willie Mullins charge over a trip short of his ideal at Leopardstown. If Toner d'Oudaries is able to build on that, and we have faith in trainer Gordon Elliott drawing more from him, then he could look well treated in his bid to make amends for last year. 

The biggest doubt would be over whether Toner d'Oudaries will actually make the line-up, his allotted mark being just 129, 3 lb lower than what was needed to make it into the race last year. A win in the meantime, and the resultant 5 lb penalty, may well be needed to see him make the cut.

It's another whose season has taken a gradual upward curve that could be Toner d'Oudaries' main obstacle to redemption; in fact you could describe him as an old foe. Attaglance entered spring last year as the winner of a weak 0-135 at Market Rasen on his most recent start but ended it a dual festival winner, taking the Martin Pipe from under Toner d'Oudaries' nose before following up at Aintree from a 5 lb-higher BHA mark of 144. He initially struggled with his jumping over fences, but has developed with experience and went about his business in a much more professional manner at Musselburgh last time, admittedly grated an easy time of it up front that day but still doing enough to suggest he's got the hang of things over fences by now. What's more, Attaglance comes to the Festival rated 6 lb lower over fences than he was over hurdles this time last year. If he's primed for this- and the suspicion is he will be- there's a sporting chance of Attaglance securing back-to-back Festival wins.

We have time for a quick word on yet another whose season has appeared to revolve around a return to the Festival. You could reasonably say that White Star Line caught a tartar last year, finishing second to the rampant Hunt Ball in this very race from a higher mark than he looks set to shoulder this time around. His novice status retained for this season, White Star Line showed the first flicker of a return to form when a never-nearer second at Fairyhouse last time. He too holds multiple entries, but he'll be worthy of respect whichever engagement he ends up taking.

It'd be possible to nominate another half-dozen interesting types in this year's Centenary, but that's the nature of Cheltenham handicaps. There are improvers, unexposed types and those who've been campaigned with the Festival in mind at every turn and therefore confident selections are hard to come by. Your best bet in this race is probably to plump for a couple that are on good marks and have Festival handicap form to their name already, and the best part is that you can back Toner d'Oudaries and Attaglance at 19.5n/a and 12.011/1 respectively. Let's hope for the perfect end to the day that punters have had as their main aim all season.

Recommendations

Back Toner d'Oudaries @ 19.5n/a and Attaglance @ 12.011/1 in the Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase

Timeform Radio Tip: Hell for leather

A wide draw may not be enough to stop Hellbender at Southwell

A couple of jumps meetings to pick from, but it's on the fibresand that Rory Delargy has found his best bet...

Today's jumps meetings at Taunton and Ludlow look pretty trappy, and the best bet of the day may well come at Southwell, where Hellbender (16:50) looks to have outstanding claims at the weights in a 6f handicap big on numbers, but decidedly lacking in depth. An improved performer since switching to the Worksop yard of Shaun Harris and tried in a tongue tie, Hellbender has also been given a real chance by the handicapper before his new mark kicks in.

A winner over 7f here earlier in the month, he improved again to go down narrowly to the well-handicapped Light Burst over the same distance, showing an excellent attitude to rally after being passed by the winner. That was all the more meritorious, as he was 3 lb out of the weights, and was unable to get an easy time at the head of affairs. He's been reassessed for that run, but is able to race of his old mark here, so is effectively 3 lb lower than for that effort, and 5 lb "well in" based on his future mark. 

A draw in the widest stall of all (Upper Lambourn, due to race from 14 is a non runner) is nothing like the disadvantage it's perceived to be over 6f at Southwell, and Hellbender has the early speed to sit handy, and crucially avoid kickback. If doing so, he looks much the likeliest winner, and the presence of the mercurial Michael Murphy on his back is another positive, with the rider having a 3 from 7 record for the often-underestimated Harris yard.

The danger on form is Nant Saeson, but he is untried on the surface, which is always a concern. As a son of Elusive City, he ought to take to the surface, but that's still something of a gamble. One who may be overpriced on form is Steel City Boy, who will be ridden as usual by Ann Stokell, and won't attract the cash as a result, but he's been running well despite the rider's limitations of late, and could prove a threat if Stokell can negotiate a path from the inside berth.

One trainer who is enjoying a great time of things since Southwell was passed fit for racing again is Mick Appleby, of whom I've been a big fan for some time. His record with fibresand runners in 2013 is an amazing 7 wins from 7 runs, and he'll be looking to add a couple more courtesy of The Lock Master (16:20) and Our Ivor (17:20).

The latter appears to have outstanding claims, and is a bet if odds against in the last, but for my second selection, I'll row in with The Lock Master, who has yet to win off a mark in the 80's, but who faces a weaker field than he might in this grade. The selection was arguably fortunate to score over 1m here last time, with the overly-strong pace setting things up for him, but he'll be better served by the longer trip on this occasion, and appears to have only Honest Deal to beat. Ascendant is also quite strong in the market, but I'm reluctant to back a seven-year-old who has yet to taste competitive action on the Southwell track.

Recommendations:
Both at Southwell

Back Hellbender in the 16:50 @ 5.14/1
Back The Lock Master in the 16:20 @ 3.259/4

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Taunton Placepot: Thursday February 28

Today's Placepot comes from Taunton

A distinct pre-Cheltenham mood sits over the day's National Hunt cards, though there still looks a fair chance of landing the Placepot at Taunton.

14:10 - This is an above-average seller, with several boasting a fair level of recent hurdles form. Get It On hasn't been at his very best of late, though he's shaped better than the result on unsuitably heavy ground the last twice and is under more suitable conditions this time. He's not quite banker material in this company, though, so we're going to strengthen our hand in this leg with No To Trident, who hasn't had much racing and should have been put right by a respectable run on his return from almost two years off last time.

14:40 - In most circumstances, we'd be reluctant to bank on Fox Run given a couple of disappointing runs since his impressive hurdling debut. However, considering his only two serious rivals have each only one bumper run to their name we find ourselves in the position where a banker on Fox Run is the least speculative approach.

15:10 - There's no room for speculation in leg three. We have just four runners, with none that can be dismissed, so the only realistic option open to us is to take them all.

15:40 - Once these Venetia Williams-trained handicappers get on a roll they usually keep going for a while, so her Jupiter Rex looks a good opportunity to throw in a banker on leg four. He's on the same mark as when dotting up over fences at Plumpton on Monday, not appearing to endure an especially difficult race so fatigue shouldn't be an issue, either.

16:10 - Banking on another odds-on favourite might well appear unimaginative on the face of it, but Thunderstorm looked to have so much in hand when winning at Market Rasen last time that a 7 lb penalty shouldn't be anything near enough to stop him going in again. What's more, if he's to have any chance of getting into the Martin Pipe, his sole Cheltenham entry, then he'll have to win handsomely. 

16:40 - This hunter can be quickly whittled down to just two. Cave Hill and Swansbrook are the only contenders with enough in the way of recent form to make them viable Placepot candidates. Swansbrook has a point win to his name from earlier this month, but he has long-standing jumping concerns and Taunton is no place to bring such baggage. Cave Hill has usually looked more assured in his jumping, while there was enough promise in his return from a lay-off at Ffos Las (in a much stronger race than this) to think he'll be back on song now. All that considered, we're recommending a banker on Cave Hill, but feel free to take Swansbrook too if you're so inclined.

Selections:

14:10 - 5, 8
14:40 - 1
15:10 - 1, 2, 3, 4
15:40 - 5
16:10 - 4
16:40 - 2

= 8 lines

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In-Play Hints: Gower to Rule at Kempton?

Timeform explore the pace angles at Kempton

Timeform try to work out how the opening two races at Kempton will play out...

Race: 17:30 Kempton- 6f Handicap

Pace Forecast: Contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Flaxen Lake is unlikely to get things its own way close up and could therefore prove vulnerable in the finish: With no shortage of likely pace-forcers, Rightcar may have a running style that suits.

Individual Price Hint: Adaeze traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 3 of its last 5 starts: Rightcar traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 3 of its last 5 starts.
 
Race: 18:00 Kempton- 1 1/2m Handicap

Pace Forecast: Weakly contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Gower Rules races prominently, and could be advantaged: Fire In Babylon has been furthest from the pace in recent starts of the better-fancied horses.

Individual Price Hint: Dubai Emerald traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 3 of its last 5 starts: Brandy Snapping traded at 25% or less of BSP twice on its last 5 starts.

Short Priced Hint: Fire In Babylon traded at a low of 11.50 and BSP of 9.60 when losing last time, a race in which it raced behind.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Copa Libertadores Betting: Emelec benefiting from rise in Ecuadorian football

Emelec captain Carlos Andres Quinonez

Jonathan Wilson brings us up to date with some of the latest results in the Copa Libertadores, and tells us why Ecuadorian football, and especially Emelec, is on the up...

These are early days, of course, but Emelec's 2-0 defeat away to Deportes Iquique (36.035/1 to win the tournament) last night feels decisive.

Iquique, having lost their first two games desperately needed the win. Emelec (36.035/1), having beaten Velez Sarsfield (5.85/1) at home and lost away to Penarol (22.021/1), must beat the Chileans next Tuesday if they are to have any realistic hope of progressing.

Iquique may have qualified as the non-champion with the best combined record over apertura and clausura last season but they have had a miserable start to the new season (the so-called transicion - as the Chilean league changes its format) and were well-beaten 3-0 by Velez in Argentina last week.

Emelec, meanwhile, sit top of the Ecuadorian league, having won five from five and are part of what is arguably the strongest Ecuadorian challenge there has ever been. It's habitual to mock football administrators but the decision taken by Conmebol almost two decades ago to arrange South American World Cup qualifying as a home and away round-robin featuring all its members was a stroke of genius. The likes of Venezuela and Ecuador, granted regular fixtures against the continent's giants, have improved immeasurably.

Ecuador sit second in World Cup qualifying (they're 160.0159/1 to win), behind only Argentina, although they have played a game more than Colombia. They beat Portugal 3-2 in a friendly in Guimaraes earlier this month, a game notable less for its result - it was only a friendly after all, than for the fact that all 11 players who started the game play in the Ecuadorian league.

The country's economic health, clearly is a major factor. GDP doubled between 1999 and 2007 and although the dip in oil process has effected growth, it's expected that 2012 will show growth of around 4%. The CIA fact book, meanwhile, shows unemployment is under 6%. Notably the Ecuadorian league is now able to attract players from Argentina, something unthinkable even a decade ago.

Emelec finished second behind Barcelona in the Ecuadorian league last seasons but achieved a major coup in the Libertadores by eliminating Flamengo. They drew at home with the eventual champions Coirinthians before losing 3-0 in Sao Paulo. Their comparative wealth, though, has allowed steady growth - and they have maintained the fine tradition of the Quinonezes.

Remarkably there are three of them in the squad, none related, all born in different towns: Carlos Andres, the captain and attacking full-back who had a brief spell at Ajax in his teens. There's the midfielder Pedro, who won two league titles with El Nacional and joined Emelec from the Mexican side Santos Laguna. And there's Jose Antonio, born in Guayaquil and nicknamed 'El Pulpo' (the Octopus) for his leggy control of midfield.

Quinonez is a relatively common surname in Ecuador, but by no means the most common, yet it resonates through Guayaquil football. The forward Lupo Quinonez remains the highest scorer in Barcelona-Emelec clasicos (10 goals for Barcelona, three for Emelec), while the centre-back Holger Quinonez won four Ecuadorean titles with Barcelona and one with Emelec between 1981 and 1991. There was Carlos and Cristhian, Marco and Rafael.

Jose Antonio is a cousin of Marco, a defender who played 63 league games for Emelec between 2005 and 2007 and is now at Deportivo Cuenca. "Our breed is courageous and tough," he said. "That's why we endure." Perhaps doubly so for him because his full name, using both mother's and father's surname as is the Hispanic convention, is Jose Antonio Quinonez Quinonez.

LDU Quito, the only Ecuadorian side ever to win the Libertadores, lost on penalties to Gremio in the play-off round this season, while the hopes of the league champions Barcelona (36.035/1) of progression suffered a major blow when they were beaten 2-1 at home by Boca Juniors (6.25/1).

The question is whether Iquique's win is a sign of them returning to form or whether it's simply another case of Emelec failing to travel well. The bad news for them is that Penarol have already won in Chile, so they will probably need to win both home matches and get a point in Buenos Aires if they are to go through.

Ecuadorian football is on the up, but the surge has probably been stalled another year.

Recommneded Bet
Back Emelec to beat Municipal Iquique - March 6 02:45

The 80/20 Bet: Thursday, Ludlow 16:00

Ludlow is the venue for today's 80/20 bet

After two consecutive winners at massive odds of 18.017/1 and 23.022/1 Nick is on the hat-trick trail today, with his Win and Place selection coming in the handicap hurdle at Ludlow...

Today's 80/20 is No Duffer in the 16.00 at Ludlow. This gelding put in a much improved effort when finishing third to Pine Creek at Leicester last month. He kept on in good style over the final flight, and was not beaten all that far.

I think he is sitting on a big effort and could go close at a decent price. At present he is trading at 9.417/2 on the exchange.

Aviva Premiership Preview: Bath poised to deliver derby win over Gloucester

Nick Abendanon can help fire Bath to a derby win over Gloucester.

Simon Mail looks ahead to the best of the weekend's Premiership matches and thinks Bath can get the better of rivals Gloucester in their derby clash...

Bath v Gloucester

Bath will be hoping to make home advantage count when they host fierce rivals Gloucester in their West Country derby. Gary Gold's side have been in decent form over the last two months with six consecutive victories prior to last weekend's narrow defeat at Northampton. Bath have also won their last five matches at the Rec so they are starting to build a strong record at home as they climb up the table.

Gloucester have enjoyed an impressive campaign under Nigel Davies which has put them in contention for a top-four finish. The Cherry and Whites have caught the eye again with their entertaining brand of rugby. Gloucester won narrowly against Worcester last weekend but they have found it harder on the road with only one away victory in the league since September.

The sides have already played twice this season with the honours shared. Bath crushed Gloucester 32-5 at Kingsholm at the start of February and although this was in the LV= Cup, the one-sided nature is certain to give them a confidence boost ahead of this weekend. Gloucester edged the league game 16-10 in October and this match is expected to be similarly tight. With only one defeat in their last 11 home matches, Bath are fancied to turn over the Cherry and Whites.

Recommended bet: Back Bath to win at 1.84/5

Harlequins v Exeter 

The champions are well positioned to defend their title after an excellent campaign which has seen them remain top of the table. Quins responded to their surprise recent defeat to Wasps by beating Leicester Tigers and Sale Sharks in their last two games. Conor O'Shea's side have won 12 out of their last 13 matches in all competitions so they are hard to oppose.

It has been a tough campaign for Exeter Chiefs and they are finding it difficult to match their superb efforts from last season in the top flight. The Chiefs earned a much-needed 47-16 home win over London Welsh in their last outing but prior to that had only one victory in their last nine matches. 

Exeter pulled off a surprise 42-28 win over Quins back in October but few people would tip them to complete a first ever league double over them. The Chiefs have lost all three previous games at the Stoop and this record is likely to continue at the weekend. Harlequins should win comfortably to maintain their grip on top spot.

Recommended bet: Back Harlequins to win by over 12.5 points at 1.75/7

Saracens v London Welsh

Sarries are coasting towards another shot at the play-offs and Mark McCall's side are looking strong contenders to add to their 2011 title. The Men in Black have just moved to their new home at Allianz Park and made an impressive start with a bonus-point league win over Exeter. Saracens have only lost once in their last 11 matches and have not been beaten in a home game all season.

After a bright start following promotion, London Welsh are now facing the harsh reality of Premiership rugby and are just three points off the foot of the table. Welsh have a cloud hanging over them with an RFU hearing looming after fielding an ineligible player in league games. To add to their woes, Welsh have lost their last six Premiership matches and games don't come much harder than a trip to Saracens. 

The Men in Black had to work hard for a 28-23 win in Oxford back in October but this was during a time when Welsh were picking up results. Saracens have started finishing off teams with bonus-point victories in their last two games including impressively at Leicester Tigers. The title challengers are unlikely to take their foot off the gas this weekend and it could be a long afternoon for the visitors.

Recommended bet:Back Saracens to win by over 12.5 points at 1.68/13

Timeform Daily: Thursday, Ludlow 15:30

Thursday's race of the day comes from Ludlow

Timeform examine each runner in a class 3 handicap chase at Ludlow...

Zarrafakt produced a smart performance when landing a 25f Wincanton handicap 13 months ago. Jumped poorly/looked none too keen both subsequent outings and something to prove after another break.

Pearlysteps took his form to a new level when second in a 3m Haydock handicap in January 2012. Shaped well on belated reappearance at Exeter recently, and enters calculations if building on that.

Buck Mulligan jumped soundly when deservedly resuming winning ways at Sedgefield (2m) in November. No problem with longer trip and capable fresh, but revised mark just about sums him up. 

Cootehill has largely run respectably since last win over shorter here in April. Just about stays this far, but rare poor effort on return visit here last time leaves him with questions to answer.

The Chazer was good as ever when getting back on the scoresheet at Doncaster (19f) this month, but up in the weights as a result, and stamina/well being to prove following his recent Haydock fall.

Grove Pride was fortunate to make a winning chase bow at Exeter (3m) in November (left clear last), but plenty to prove following a couple of lesser efforts since, shaping as if amiss at Kempton in December.

Politeo cashed in off a sliding mark in good style at Wincanton (21f) in January. Stays this far, and very much of interest again, despite subsequent 8 lb rise.

Ballyoliver is a consistent sort who has been in the grip of the assessor since last win at Newbury (3m) in December. Not as fluent as usual last time, though, and this hardly any easier.

Requin has shown signs that he was getting back on track when fourth at Stratford (21f) in October, but quickly back in the doldrums after a break in cheekpieces in December, and yet to prove he stays this far.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Pearlysteps
2. Politeo
3. Buck Mulligan

Timeform View: Pearlysteps was runner-up off a 2 lb higher mark in a Grade 2 Haydock handicap last season, and may prove too strong for recent winner Politeo, following his promising reappearance. The consistent Buck Mulligan may fare best of the rest.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

The Betfair Contrarian: Why QPR won't get relegated

Redknapp has been in relegation trouble, and survived, a few times in his managerial career

They are seven points from saftey with less than a third of the season remaining, but the Contrarian believes QPR will still be a Premier League club next season...

As the Premier League season heads into the final bend, bottom-placed QPR seem to be having no luck getting rid of the anvil around their ankle. However, before you write off the Hoops as Championship-bound chumps, just see what the Contrarian has to say and you may just find yourself laying Harry Redknapp's hopefuls for the drop at 1.192/11.

Harry Houdini

Much like Harvey Keitel's character in Pulp Fiction, Harry Redknapp is the footballing equivalent of The Wolf - the crisis handler par excellence. Most recently, he transformed Tottenham from bottom-placed flounderers into Champions League quarter-finalists. Crucially though, Harry has kept less glamorous teams afloat in the top-flight when threatened with the trapdoor. He kept Portsmouth in the Premier League on a limited budget in the 2003/04 season. Then on his return to Pompey in December 2005, with the club neck-deep in relegation, he managed to inflate the lifeboat again, securing six wins and two draws from the last 10 games to keep them up.

Hugely favourable fixture list

Of great encouragement to layers of QPR is a run-in which looks like it was hand-picked by Tony Fernandes himself. Out of the 11 games left (a potential haul of 33 points), QPR face eight teams in the bottom-half and not one member of the current top four. Better still, they have the chance to steal points off the five teams situated directly above them at present. Starting with 16th-placed Southampton at St Mary's on Saturday, QPR will play four of the bottom five sides over the course of their next five games, including Wigan and Aston Villa. This run of fixtures presents a gold-plated opportunity to claw back some of the seven-point deficit, whilst simultaneously applying pressure to those above them.

Fit again Loic Remy

It was a massive coup when QPR managed to snare Marseille's departing striker from right under Newcastle noses. Remy notched 28 league goals from just 53 appearances in the French top-flight for Marseille and was understandably being courted by the Magpies as well (understandable given they'll buy anything with a French passport). The 8 million French international showed exactly what he is capable of by racing away to score at West Ham on a fine debut in English football. Now he's fit again the pacy frontman should have plenty to trouble the upcoming opposition. Bobby Zamora's return to the squad also bodes well.

Last season's escape

Believe it or not, given the churn, there are still some players on the QPR's books who were part of the great escapists from last season. The likes of Adel Taarabt, Jamie Mackie, Clint Hill and Bobby Zamora all helped Rangers to five successive home wins during the run-in and can therefore impart some belief on the newer members of the squad, that this task is achievable. Despite losing to Manchester United at the weekend and Swansea previously, the R's have not been as far away from winning games as the table suggests; drawing four of the last six previously against the likes of Tottenham and Man City.

Other team's implosion credentials

We've seen all season-long how the teams around QPR are more than capable of putting together three or four losses on the bounce. Aston Villa have won only once in their last 10 league games, losing on six occasions, while Wigan went on a horrendous run earlier in the season, losing seven out of nine leading up to Christmas. Even Norwich, in 12th, have the potential for free-fall, highlighted by four straight defeats over Christmas for the Canaries.

Cheltenham Handicap Weights: Festival handicap weights revealed

The Cheltenham Festival gets underway on March 12.

There are a record number of entries for the 11 handicaps at this year's Festival and today the weights for those races were revealed...

Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins boasts a formidable team for The Festival and he accounts for the joint or sole top-weight in five of the 11 handicaps including Uncle Junior in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.
            
Following his victory in the Racing Plus Chase on Saturday, Opening Batsman would have to shoulder 12st 6 lb if he was to take up his engagement in the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase or 12st 1 lb if running in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase.
            
The David Pipe-trained Ballynagour, a facile winner on his British debut at Warwick last week, is now rated 148p by Timeform and has six possible targets at Cheltenham.
 
His Festival options are the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase, in which he has been allotted 11 stone, Coral Cup (10st 11 lb), Byrne Group Plate (10st 7 lb), Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (10st 10 lb), Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (11st 10 lb) and Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (10st 7 lb).
 
Meanwhile, it will take a high weight to be one of the 24 to make the cut for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle with 37 entries on 11st 6lb or above.

Click HERE to view a full list of the Festival weights.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Follow The Money: Gizzit a chance

Wincanton

Today's Follow The Money features two backs from Wincanton and a lay at Lingfield

We start at Wincanton and the 14:30 Handicap Hurdle over 2m6f. Fifteen runners line up for what looks a wide open race, with the current market favourite E Street Boy available at 6.05/1. The one for the money, however is course and distance winner Call Me Sir who has slid from a high of 14.25n/a early on to 8.07/1. The selection got stuck in the mud at Ascot a couple of runs back and then fell at Ffos Las when beaten last time out, but we don't have to look too far back to make a case for him. Good wins at Newton Abbot in September and then here in December looked to point to an improving performer. Excuses can be made for his last couple of runs and eased 3lb in the weights, he can regain the winning thread here.

We stay at Wincanton to take in the 16:00 Handicap Hurdle over 2m, where we have seen a big early move for Gizzit who has contracted from a high of around 4.1n/a in to 2.942/1. The gamble was landed on this selection when first of 19 runners at Warwick just five days ago, where he beat the re-opposing Goochypoochyprader with a fair bit in hand. Gizzit has been turned out quickly, with no penalty to deal with here, so is taken to land the spoils quite comfortably again today.

Our lay of the day comes in the 17:10 Lingfield Bumper race. Giveagirlachance has drifted dramatically in the betting from as low as 1.728/11 out to a much fairer 2.427/5.  A course and distance win last time out means she will have to shoulder a penalty, and it could be that she can take that in her stride. However, with a few well-bred types in this field that might just serve up a shock, we take the view that this drift is significant enough to oppose Giveagirlachance today.

Recommended Bets:
Back Call Me Sir @ 8.07/1 14:30 Wincanton 
Back Gizzit @ 2.942/1 16:00 Wincanton 
Lay Giveagirlachance @ 2.427/5 17:10 Lingfield 

Kempton Placepot: Wednesday February 27

Kempton Park is the venue for today's Placepot attempt.

Timeform's Matt Gardner heads to Kempton for Wednesday's crack at the Placepot...

17:30 - We get underway with a competitive handicap over a mile and a quarter but, for now at least, there are eight set to go to post which gives us three places to aim at. The first one we want on side is Noguchi who has been in top form of late, including at this venue the last twice, and makes plenty of appeal with the talented apprentice Robert Tart now taking over in the saddle and it is also worth sticking in Hilali, who has scored twice over hurdles since last being seen on the level and ought to be suited by this distance judged upon a couple of efforts earlier in his career. 

18:00 - A non-runner in this leg has reduced this field to seven, which is annoying, but we will stick to our guns and bank on the thrice-raced Desert Donkey, who has made steady progress in maidens and looks to have been granted a lenient opening handicap mark. 

18:30 - Sandstormers entrant Haywain has taken a while to get his act together but has done better since being fitted with blinkers on his two most recent starts; the drop to seven furlongs last time didn't look an obvious move but he improved for it, actually shaping as if sprinting may be his game, and he is certainly worth a go at the six furlongs faced tonight. Dishy Guru, who shaped as if in need of the run on return from a break last time in a race that has thrown up three subsequent winners, looks to be flying under the radar in the market at present but he is very well handicapped and can provide us with a spot of insurance here. 

19:00 - Flamborough Breeze is bidding to land a C&D hat-trick and is likely to be an obvious banker for many, however the best play may be to oppose her with one who seems just as likely to make the places in the hope that the favourite misses out. The one selected is Pastoral Jet, a five-year-old who is pretty consistent and managed to produce his best effort yet when narrowly denied over C&D last month. 

19:30 - We could realistically select bankers in the final two legs but we haven't burnt all that many lines up to this point so we're going to take two in each. Tanawar and Spring Tonic make the cut here, the former a steadily progressive William Haggas-trained three-year-old and the latter a four-year-old who was bought out of Luca Cumani's yard by his new connections, has been gelded since last seen and boasts a decent piece of form at this venue in September. 

20:00 - Gabrial's Wawa sets the standard but that level is not insurmountable so we will take him on with both Red To Amber and Vastly. The first mentioned could prove to be a different proposition with his debut experience, where he was too green to do himself justice, under his belt and he seems sure to go close, but it is also worth taking a bit of a flyer on Vastly, who boasts a taking middle-distance pedigree with the high-class Await The Dawn among his siblings and he is of interest despite being sold for just 8,000 gns last year and making a relatively late start to his career. 

Selections:
17:30 - 3, 4
18:00 - 5
18:30 - 8, 11
19:00 - 13
19:30 - 2, 8
20:00 - 1, 6
= 16 lines

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.