Timeform Radio Tip: Gilzean set to score at Fakenham

Philip Hobbs trains one of Rory's selections

Rory Delargy looks at the reduced New Year's Day programme.

Spurs (and Dundee) fans will be familiar with the legendary reputation of Alan "Gillie" Gilzean, one of the finest headers of the ball in the modern game. It's nearly 40 years since he netted his last domestic goal, but it may be that another Gilzean will be on the scoresheet today as the horse by that name looks to hold an outstanding chance in the closing handicap hurdle at Fakenham (15:40). This Gilzean, a son of Flemensfirth trained by Alex Hales, served notice that he was on a lenient mark when pulling clear with the winner at Catterick (25f) on his recent handicap debut, and he's able to run off a mark 4 lb lower than for future engagements today. His opposition looks sparse, with the main threat on paper being the reformed Everdon Brook, who has won 4 times this season, including on his last 2 starts for new trainer David Thompson. A further hike in the weights for winning a poor contest at Musselburgh last time makes him look vulnerable, however, while both Native Colony and Smart Exit were most disappointing on their most recent outings. Go Amwell is a rogue who was flattered by his proximity over C&D last time, and the quirky Ben Cee Pee M is having his first start in over 13 months. The last named is hard to rule out, especially with the in-form Oliver Sherwood booking McCoy for the ride, but to my mind Gilzean will be very hard to peg back with his featherweight, aided by the claim of the underused Killian Moore.  

I was recently writing comments for an unraced Philip Hobbs bumper runner, and was considering making it a selection when I noticed that the Hobbs strike rate in bumpers for 2012/13 had dipped markedly below previous seasons' totals. The horse in question didn't run, but is engaged again today, and I was about to add a similar caveat to its short comment when I decided to re-check the stats. I was interested to see that the fortunes of the Minehead yard have picked up somewhat, and it's worth noting that the last 6 bumper runners from the yard have finished 323311, with the last 2, Quick Decisson and Horizontal Speed, running out very impressive winners. Today, Hobbs saddles the impeccably-bred Mighty Mobb in the bumper at Exeter, and he is the clear pick on pedigree, being a half-brother to the classy but ill-fated Kennel Hill, out of a half-sister to the dam of Feltham winner Darkness and promising novice chaser Cantlow. The only dangers on paper are Guanciale (Brendan Powell) and Yabadabadoo (Emma Lavelle). Lavelle can ready a newcomer, and her record in bumpers is decent, but I was surprised to find that she failed to train a single winner in this sphere (from 18 runners) last year, whereas Brendan Powell has the best recent record of the trio, with 6 wins from 22 runs in the current season. A closer look reveals that 3 of those wins have come in junior bumpers, though, and Guanciale comes from a family of dour stayers, most notably 2000 Welsh National winner Jocks Cross. All in all, the chances of Mighty Mobb making a winning debut look to have been underestimated by the market. 

Recommended Bets:

Back Gilzean in the 15:40 Fakenham
Back Mighty Mobb in the 15:50 Exeter