Timeform Dubai SmartPlays: Meydan, Thursday January 3

Stephen has picked out three bets from Meydan

The Dubai Carnival is just a week away but before then there is one more local meeting at Meydan to get our teeth into and Timeform's Dubai Handicapper, Stephen Molyneux, has found three bets for Thursday's card...

Kieren Fallon and Fawzi Nass enjoyed great success together last year with Krypton Factor and that combination are together again in the sprint handicap at 15:05, Forevertheoptimist the horse in question this time. He was trained by Linda Stubbs last year, a listed success at Sandown under potentially flattering circumstances leading to a stiff enough handicap mark, but Nass has a habit of getting the very best out of his sprinters and, after three runs in Dubai this season, he now looks ready to strike. He started the campaign with a perfectly creditable effort off a mark of 91, finishing sixth behind Ganas before facing a stiff task over 7f behind Surfer next time, understandably tiring having raced freely in the early stages. He was outclassed tackling dirt for the first time at Jebel Ali more recently and now returns to handicap company off a 6 lb lower mark. He's got a good draw, the right man on board and a race containing several dubious sorts so everything looks in place for a big run. 

The 15:40 is a rather disjointed handicap with five of the seven runners out of the weights, and it really does look an obvious opportunity for Averroes who has the clear advantage of being able to run off his proper mark. He won over this course and distance last season before running a fine race behind Opinion Poll in the Dubai Gold Cup, showing stamina to be his forte. He was never likely to be suited by the drop back to 10f on his reappearance, in the circumstances running a creditable race to finish fifth behind Zain Shamardal, travelling for a long way as though all his ability remains intact. Everything's in place for a big run and it will be disappointing if he doesn't get his head in front. 

Any horse can be forgiven one poor run, particularly when it comes on a different surface just a week after a very good effort, and with that in mind Karma Chameleon is expected to firmly get back on track in the concluding handicap at 17:25. He was a multiple winner for John Berry and whilst higher in the weights now, he showed with his second to Profondo Rosso on his penultimate outing that he is well up to defying it. He came from an impossible position that day, almost running down one who had everything go his way and whilst such tactics would be a concern again, he has shown in the past he doesn't need to be ridden like that and will hopefully sit a bit handier from his inside draw today. His Jebel Ali running (first outing on dirt) was simply too bad to be true and he looks the one to beat in a handicap high on quantity but low on quality.  

RECOMMENDED BETS:
All at Meydan

Back Forevertheoptimist in the 15:05 
Back Averroes in the 15:40 
Back Karma Chameleon in the 17:25 

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