The Big Match Tactical View: Southampton v Arsenal

Lukas Podolski was excellent in Arsenal's 7-3 win over Newcastle

Michael Cox previews the meeting between Nigel Adkins and Arsene Wenger.

Southampton v Arsenal, New Year's Day, 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Southampton 5.24/1, Arsenal 1.768/11, The Draw 4.1n/a.

Arsenal thrashed Southampton 6-1 in the reverse fixture in September, but Nigel Adkins' side are unlikely to on the end of a similarly heavy defeat this time around, having improved their shape and structure in recent months.

At the Emirates Southampton were simply far too open - leaving their back four exposed, and being particularly vulnerable to Arsenal's attacks from wide positions. Since then, Southampton's wide players perform their defensive duties a lot more keenly, and subtle shift in the balance of the midfield triangle - with the impressive Jack Cork coming into the side - has made them look better in the centre of the pitch. Recent results have been inconsistent, but they'll give Arsenal a good game here.

Adkins will be tempted to name an unchanged side from the XI that started excellently in the 3-3 draw with Stoke - Southampton were 3-1 up after 36 minutes, and only conceded the equaliser in stoppage time. It was a rather adventurous system, with Jay Rodriguez fielded behind Rickie Lambert, although Adkins will be keen to use Argentine playmaker Gaston Ramirez, who was rested at Stoke. 

With left-sided midfielder Adam Lallana still out, it seems more likely that Rodriguez will move left in place of Guly Do Prado, with Ramirez occupying the central playmaking role. That's a zone Arsenal can be vulnerable in - Mikel Arteta still isn't completely suited to the primary defensive job in midfield, and Ramirez positions himself cleverly, in very advanced positions away from opposition midfielders.

Right-back Nathaniel Clyne is an injury doubt, with Japanese defender Maya Yoshida - more of a centre-back - set to deputise. This would be a potential area of weakness, because Lukas Podolski was excellent in the 7-3 win over Newcastle and also performed well two weeks ago in the win at Reading, while Yoshida was very poor against Arsenal earlier in the season, admittedly on a surprise debut from the bench. Podolski would be worth backing to open the scoring at around 8.07/1 - he's probably better value in this market than in the 'anytime' market, because he's only completed 90 minutes once in his 17 league starts.

Arsenal appear too short at 1.758/11. They may be on a run of four consecutive league victories, but each has been unconvincing - West Brom and Wigan were defeated courtesy of some debatable penalty decisions, while against both Reading and Newcastle, Arsenal looked prone to letting their lead slip. 

However, their win over Newcastle was sealed with a strong second half showing - probably thanks to their rest on Boxing Day - and that relative freshness will still be an advantage in this match. Arsenal have played well in the second half recently, and backing Draw / Arsenal at 5.39/2 looks good.

Arsene Wenger's major decision is which centre-forward to use - Theo Walcott scored a hattrick against Newcastle and should continue there, although he played equally well when moved to the right flank, with Olivier Giroud finding the net as a substitute. Pace seems the best bet against Southampton's backline, which means Walcott and fellow ex-Southampton youth product Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain should continue, with Giroud only a plan B.

Finally, expect few cards in this match - Southampton and Arsenal are the only Premier League sides that average fewer than one booking per game, while Lee Probert shows (marginally) fewer than average yellow cards per match, which makes the Bookings Odds and Total Bookings Pointsmarkets look enticing.

Recommended bets:

Back Podolski to score first at 8.07/1 if Yoshida plays at right-back
Back Draw / Arsenal at 5.39/2 in Half Time / Full Time