Swansea vs Arsenal: Swans and Gunners evenly matched

Michael Laudrup is leading Swansea to a fine season

Swansea are looking for a third consecutive win against Arsenal, but Kevin Hatchard suspects this FA Cup third round tie may require a replay before it is settled.

Swansea vs Arsenal, FA Cup Third Round, Sun 13:30 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Swansea 3.613/5, Arsenal 2.1411/10, the draw 3.814/5

On the first day of December the boos rang out at the Emirates as a late Michu double secured a shock 2-0 win for Swansea. The most alarming thing for Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger was the nature of the defeat - Swansea were the better side for large swathes of the match, and were well worth the three points.

Arsenal have improved their results in the Premier League since then, winning four of their five matches and drawing the other. That said, they also suffered a grotesque penalty-shootout defeat at League Two side Bradford City in the League Cup, and if you scratch beneath the surface they continue to look fragile on their travels. They were fortunate to win 1-0 at Wigan recently, and last time out they were held 1-1 at Southampton in a game they could easily have lost.

The Gunners are prolific scorers at home, but they haven't scored more than once in any of their last six away games. Contract rebel Theo Walcott is currently Arsenal's most dangerous offensive weapon, with four goals netted in his last four games. Walcott is 2.01/1 in the To Score market, and 6.611/2 to be First Goalscorer.

Since their raid on the Emirates, Michael Laudrup's Swansea have struggled to string victories together, and they have won just two of their last seven games. They will however take encouragement from the fact they've beaten and outplayed Arsenal in their last two meetings, and they can also take solace from their recent 1-1 draw at home to Premier League pacesetters Manchester United. Michu is quite rightly regarded as the Swans' biggest attacking threat (he has scored 14 goals in 23 games), but Danny Graham is an interesting choice for First Goalscorer at a hefty 9.28/1 - he has scored in each of his last two games since his return to the first eleven.

I like the look of the draw in this one. Swansea have drawn three of their last four games, and they've racked up five draws in 12 matches at the Liberty Stadium. Arsenal can't be trusted to win away from home, especially at just above evens. That December clash at the Emirates was pretty tight until Michu's late heroics, so I think backing the draw at 3.814/5 is the value bet. If you want proof that the market thinks it'll be tight, the draw at Half Time is priced at 1.9420/21, and in my experience it's rare to see that trading below evens.

It's also worth considering that four of Swansea's last six games have featured Under 2.5 Goals, and when you match that up with Arsenal's failure to score consistently on the road, Under 2.5 Goals looks attractive at 2.166/5.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw at 3.814/5
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.166/5