Danger in Betting Against the Minnows

Danger in Betting Against the Minnows

By Michael Gales Nov 10, 2012

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With qualification for the 2014 World Cup underway, punters will be looking to make a profit backing against the “minnows” of international football to get heavily beaten. This article sets out to see if betting against these teams is a viable strategy, and whether these “minnows” perform as badly as bettors anticipate.

Every qualifying campaign sees a number of “minnow” nations – San Marino, Andorra, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein and Malta – go toe-to-toe with the best soccer nations Europe has to offer, with results sometimes resembling rugby scores.

By investigating the past five World Cup qualification campaigns we have looked at whether the reputation of the “minnows” are true representations or based on preconceptions.

World Cup Total Goals Market

The average number of goals scored per “minnow” game for all five small sides over the last five World Cup qualifying campaigns is above three goals. This doesn’t mean that betting “over” on 3 goals is a sure thing, however.

In fact, this number has been manipulated by a number of heavy defeats in the past, which act as outliers to skew the actual amount of goals scored.

For example, on average 2.5 goals were scored in games involving the Faroe Islands in their 2010 World Cup qualification campaign. However, 60% of the games saw fewer goals scored, with two 4-0 defeats and a 5-0 away loss at France bumping up the mean.

Another example is highlighted by Liechtenstein ‘s 1998 World Cup qualification campaign. The average number of goals scored involving Liechtenstein was 5.5 goals, however 70% of their games witnessed fewer goals. Their average was inflated after suffering defeats such as 11-1, 8-0 and 8-1.

Bettors must understand their own preconceptions regarding these sides in order to bet effectively. The Faroe Islands, for example, have a reputation for heavy defeats, but have lost by five or more goals in qualifying just six times in the last 18 years.

World Cup Handicap Market

The negative connotations carried by the minnow sides also have a dramatic impact on the handicap market. Looking at the Faroe Island’s last five World Cup Qualifying campaigns, the side averaged a deficit of 2.3 goals per game. In truth, however, the side has lost by less than this 62% of the time.

Andorra and Liechtenstein also lost by less than their average deficit the majority of the time – at 59.4% and 55%.

For other minnows, the negative connotations prove more accurate. San Marino lose by less than their average just 43.4% of the time, while Malta loss by less than their average deficit 44%.

External Factors Effecting “Minnows”

Before betting on World Cup qualifiers involving “minnows” every punter should consider a number of external factors that may affect the result.

External factors such as squad information, group dynamics, travel and the pitch should all be taken into consideration.

For example, how motivated is a major nation going to be after travelling hundreds of miles on a Tuesday night to play a “minnow” on a poor pitch, when their best players have been rested and they have already qualified for the World Cup?

*Odds subject to change

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