Bundesliga Betting: Foals to edge out Rhine rivals

Lucien Favre has made Gladbach tough to beat

Our Bundesliga man Kevin Hatchard is back to pick out the week's best bets, and he fancies Borussia Monchengladbach to overcome local rivals Fortuna Dusseldorf.

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Fortuna Dusseldorf, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Gladbach 1.728/11, Fortuna 5.85/1, the draw 3.953/1

Rhine rivals Borussia Monchengladbach and Fortuna Dusseldorf played out a sterile goalless draw in September, and since then both clubs can be relatively happy with the way their respective seasons have panned out.

Gladbach have slowly but surely recovered from having the spine of their team ripped out in the summer, and they lie just four points off the Champions League qualification places. Canny coach Lucien Favre has made the Foals tough to beat - they have suffered four league defeats, a tally only bettered by Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.

Gladbach haven't lost a game since mid-November (a 2-1 home reverse to Stuttgart), and that was also the last time they conceded more than one goal in a game. Their home record is solid, with four wins, two draws and two defeats. Opta tell us that under Favre, Gladbach have lost just four of their 31 Bundesliga games at Borussia Park.

Fortuna's top priority is survival, and they have crafted an eight-point cushion between themselves and the bottom three. Fortuna have plenty of links to Saturday's opponents - coach Norbert Meier was a player and coach, at Gladbach, five of the Fortuna squad have played for the Foals, and even director of sport Wolf Werner is a former Gladbach coach.

Fortuna made an appalling start to the year, as they lost 3-2 at home to struggling Augsburg. Dusseldorf's defending wouldn't have looked out of place in one of those silent films where custard pies and pratfalls are de rigeur. The first goal was a backward header from defender Juanan which went through keeper Fabian Giefer's legs to set up Sascha Molders, the second saw Fortuna's defenders stand motionless as Augsburg doubled their lead, and the third saw Giefer smack a loose ball against the posterior of Molders and watched in horror as it rebounded into the net. Fortuna were indeed given "the bum's rush."

While such comedy defending is out of character for a team that's only conceded 25 goals in 18 league games, such a horror show will surely have affected confidence. Gladbach have won their last three home games 2-0 (including the Europa League), and I fancy them to take all three points. Fortuna have scored just eight goals on their travels this season, so I like the look of backing Gladbach to Win to Nil at 2.89/5.

It's also worth looking at backing No in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.8910/11. The reverse league fixture was a goalless draw, and Fortuna won 1-0 against Gladbach in the cup after extra-time. It'll be another tight derby, but I expect Gladbach to come out on top.

Recommended Bets: Back Gladbach to Win to Nil at 2.89/5

Back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.8910/11

Greuther Furth vs Mainz, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Greuther 3.211/5, Mainz 2.486/4, the draw 3.45n/a

Greuther remain rooted to the foot of the table, and while they battled gamely in last week's 2-0 reverse at Bayern Munich, another game has gone by without a point or a goal. I don't want this column to become a weekly Greuther bash-fest, but they have scored just one goal in their last six matches, and they haven't won a game since they beat Mainz 1-0 in late August.

We shouldn't get too carried away by Greuther's victory in Mainz, as it was a real smash-and-grab in a game Mainz dominated. Since that defeat Thomas Tuchel's men have risen to seventh in the table, and although they have picked up just two Bundesliga away wins, they have actually put in some decent displays on their travels.

Mainz are the only visiting team to win at Eintracht Frankfurt this season, and they recently won 2-1 at a full-strength Schalke in the German Cup. Greuther have the worst home record in the division, and as such Mainz's price of 2.486/4 for the win is too big to ignore.

Recommended Bet: Back Mainz to win at 2.486/4

Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen, Sat 17:30 BST

Match Odds: Freiburg 2.915/8, Bayer 2.77/4, the draw 3.45n/a

The Opta stats show that second-placed Bayer have an outstanding record against Freiburg. They have won seven of the last nine meetings, and have won on each of their last four visits to the Dreisamstadion.

Sixth-placed Freiburg are undoubtedly punching above their weight, but it's worth noting that they struggle against elite sides. They lost against each of the division's top four teams in the first half of the season. Bayer have taken 18 points from their last seven games, and have won four away games this term. Considering that form and Bayer's superb record against Freiburg, 2.77/4 has to be considered as value for the away win.

Recommended Bet: Back Bayer Leverkusen to win at 2.77/4