Aqueduct Preview: Vegas can put on a show in the Jerome

There's some big US action this weekend

Graeme North looks ahead to the big weekend racing in New York.

The first of the recognised Kentucky Derby trials this year has already been run and was won quite readily too by Itsmyluckyday at Gulfstream Park on Tuesday, though quite what he achieved in beating rivals he'd already beaten before is open to interpretation and whether he has the long-term potential of the Todd Pletcher newcomer Verrazano that took the maiden on the same card most impressively is another matter. There are a couple of trials this weekend, too, at Santa Anita and Aqueduct with the G2 Jerome Stakes (off 15:48 local time, 20:48 GMT), over a mile and seventy yards the highlight of an ordinary card at the New York venue. The Jerome, which has been run on the main track here in April for the last two seasons, is the first of three trials to be held at Aqueduct that precede the G1 Wood Memorial in April.

Eight go to post in a race that has a very attractive betting shape to it. The pre-race spotlight in the local media has so far fallen on the 3/1 Morning Line favourite Vyjack who is 2-2 at Aqueduct and shapes as if he will very much appreciate the step up in trip after forging clear in the slop in the seven-furlong Traskwood Stakes last month. He seems likely to improve on the rating of 114 he achieved that day but he will probably need to as he faces a rival, Vegas No Show, who won twice last year and proved his credentials at this level when second (running to 115) in the G2 Nashua here in November when he emerged best of the trio that slugged it out up front only to be overhauled late by the subsequent and still unbeaten G1 Cashcall Futurity winner Violence. Vegas No Show rather lived up to his name with a 'no show' in the G2 Remsen less than three weeks later on his final start but he can be forgiven that effort in view of his very tough race in the Nashua and it seems significant the blinkers he wore then for the first time are now left off.

If there's a horse in the line-up capable of causing an upset, it's most likely the Godolphin representative Long River who broke his maiden at the third attempt over this track and trip last month. By itself that is strong form, but Long River is a fair bit better than even that result makes him look as his final timefigure of 98 was achieved despite being anything but hard ridden and after an initial modest pace. Had the race been run more optimally that 98 could easily surpassed 106 given his equivalent timefigure at halfway was around 80 and to suggest 106 or more is a better gauge of his ability than his current 98 form rating is no wild assertion given that he received a 3lb beating off the 116-rated Delhomme on his previous start in a Belmont maiden two months previously. That day the re-opposing Mudflats was well behind in third. Mudflats has since won a maiden at Aqueduct and moved to Doug O'Neill but he's far too short at the forecast 4 in view of what he has achieved and Morning Line forecasts of 3.5 about Long River are on the thin side too. Had Vegas No Show come here straight from the Remsen he'd have been much shorter than the 7 he's forecast to start and that price if available would represent terrific value.  
   
The preceding Busanda Stakes (15:18, 20:18 GMT) over the same trip has attracted six runners and top trainer Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand with two entries, Princess of Sylmar, who won her maiden at Penn National by nineteen lengths before following up in a minor stakes here last month by over five, and Coconut Shrimp who have arguably the best form. How Coconut Shrimp will fare on her dirt debut having been raced only on turf so far remains to be seen, however, and a bigger danger to Princess of Sylmar will probably be the Godolphin-owned Asiya who won a maiden here by eleven lengths on the same card as Vyjack won the Traskwood. The longer trip here shouldn't be any inconvenience but the likelihood of improvement has already been factored into her 3 Morning Line price and at the forecast 3.5 odds Princess of Sylmar, who looks set to make more improvement given anything stronger than the modest pace she tracked last time before surging clear, makes more appeal.  

Recommended bets
1pt win Vegas No Show in the Jerome
1pt win Princess of Sylmar in the Busanda