2012 ~ Betting is life

понедельник, 31 декабря 2012 г.

Follow The Money: Final movers of 2012

FTM are backing two at Lingfield today

Today's New Year's Eve Follow The Money comes from the cards at Lingfield and Uttoxeter. It's a quickfire treble for you, and within a little over half an hour we will know whether we are to see in the New Year with Champagne or Blue Nun.

Let's start at Lingfield and the 13:30 6f Handicap where Commanche has been solidly backed from 3.39/4 into 2.6813/8. The selection made a winning start to his all-weather career at Kempton in his last race, and a 5lb rise for that seems fair. Jockey Adam Kirby keeps the ride, and is in cracking good form having had two wins from three at this course just yesterday. Overall, our punters like the chances of Commanche registering a second win on the bounce, and are backing him to do so.

On the face of it, Landenstown Star has every chance in the 13:40 3m Handicap Chase at a heavy ground Uttoxeter. While the selection has a lot going for him and is still odds-on to land the spoils, he has drifted from an early low of 1.412/5 out to a current 1.9210/11. His Boxing Day run at Ffos Las on heavy over 2m5f was a winning one. However, easy that win was, and he won by 16 lengths, it must have taken something out of Tim Vaughan's charge, and perhaps another slog over three miles when turned out so quickly, and up 7lb, is going to find Landenstown Star out today. Lay!

There's a real market steamer to tell you about in the 14:00 at Lingfield. Punters have smashed into Johnstown Lad at all prices from a high of 13.5n/a and they're still lining up to take the 5.69/2 now on offer. Quite why the market has moved so appreciably for him is a bit of a mystery, as the selection hasn't won in two years. But it is worth noting that his handicap mark has become a lot more attractive as a result. Our Timeform colleagues rate Johnstown Lad as 'folly to dismiss' and that's good enough to rate as a confident 'back' for me.

Recommended Bets
Back Commanche @ 2.6813/8 Lingfield 13:30
Lay Landenstown Star @ 1.9210/11 Uttoxeter 13:40
Back Johnstown Lad @ 5.69/2 Lingfield 14:00

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Hapoel New Year

There should be a spectacular end to 2012 in Israel

Another major holiday spent on the shores of the Mediterranean

Livorno 2 Juve Stabia 2. That's nine wins in 11.

In Israel's Liga Leumit three of Hapoel Petach Tikva's most recent five home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals and so have 9/16 Maccabi Herzliya away matches.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.245/4 in Hapoel Petach Tikva v Maccabi Herzliya

Premier League: Walcott for Arsenal exit?

Train to Manchester, Theo?

Arsenal fans have seen star players leave the Emirates over recent seasons, so is Theo Walcott about to depart or will Arsene Wenger go all out to keep his hat-trick hero? Ralph Ellis reports.

Theo Walcott wants to stay at Arsenal and the Gunners want to keep him. It all sounds so simple, doesn't it?

Walcott wants to play as a centre-forward. He's had his chance and now scored four goals in three games, including Saturday's spectacular hat-trick against Newcastle. So that should be another box ticked off in the contract negotiations, shouldn't it?

And yet you couldn't blame Arsenal fans this morning for feeling that they've seen and heard all this before - with Ashley Cole, Samir Nasri, Cesc Fabregas, and Gael Clichy, and most recently with Robin van Persie. Funny how a succession of players who profess to love being at The Emirates seem to end up moving somewhere else.

The talk this morning is that Walcott's advisors are due for another round or two of serious discussions with the Gunners' hierarchy at the start of the New Year to try to settle a deal, and Arsenal sources say they are growing increasingly confident of getting it done.

But the logical question is that if everybody is so keen to sort it out, why hasn't it happened already? Why didn't Walcott put pen to paper at the same time as Jack Wilshere and four of the club's other bright young homegrown talents?

The big fear for the Gunners must be that, in giving Walcott his chance to prove he should play in a central striking role, they have only alerted other big clubs to the quality of his talent there. Walcott's hat-trick took him to just eight Premier League goals for the season, not enough at the moment to make him even a remote contender for the Golden Boot. Arsenal fans won't need reminding that a certain RVP is leading the way for that one and still looks a steal at odds against - currently 2.77/4 - in the betting.

But when you look at Theo's minutes on the pitch in a season where Arsene Wenger has perversely tried to persuade him to sign a new contract by leaving him on the bench for much of the time, the figures take on a new light. Those eight goals have come in the equivalent of just over nine games.
That sort of scoring ratio, alongside the quality of some of his finishing, must surely have attracted attention at Manchester City where they are losing patience with Mario Balotelli, and must be weighing up the options of how to freshen the squad to try to close the gap at the top of the Premier League.

Chelsea are about to add Newcastle's Demba Ba to their options, and after missing out on Van Persie in the summer City know they can't afford to stand still. A cut price deal for Walcott, a player with only six months left on his current contract at The Emirates, looks more and more appealing with each goal he scores.

It all provides reason to keep a close watch on the Transfer Special markets at the start of the January window. Walcott to Stay is one of them, and the 'no' option is currently anywhere up to a lay of 10.09/1. It all sounds so simple that he should be staying - but the track record of other players at Arsenal tells you there could be some twists to come.

Against All Odds: Hapoel Petach Tikva too short in Israel

Celebrate the new year with a winner in Israel

Hapoel Petach Tikva host Maccabi Herzliya in the Israeli Liga Leumit and while the hosts are odds-on, Paul Robinson thinks they should be opposed as the away side have won their last two.

It's the final 'Against All Odds' of the year and with a healthy profit already secured, I hope 2013 will be just as prosperous.

Hapoel Petach Tikva are fifth in the table after picking up 27 points from their opening 16 fixtures. If they win their game in hand this evening then they will go level on points with second place and just two behind leaders, Maccabi Petah Tikva.

After dropping down to this division this year, Eli Mahpud's side will be hoping to bounce straight back to the top flight, however two defeats in their last three have dented their charge somewhat. The 0-1 home loss last time was their third at HaMoshava Stadium this term and they only have a 50% win record thus far.

Maccabi Herzliya are 10th in the league after collecting 21 points from their opening 16 fixtures. After a run of three without victory, they have turned things around with back to back wins and another one tonight would see them move eighth, into the promotion group.

Ofer Talker's men have to put a pair of away defeats behind them though, however they will be buoyed by the fact that they avoided defeat in four of the previous six on the road, and that they didn't lose too many times away from home last season either.

This looks like a pretty even match on paper and despite Hapoel Petach Tikva having home advantage, I can't have them at around the 1.981/1 mark, which is why I'm making them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Hapoel Petach Tikva v Maccabi Herzliya @ 1.981/1

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 302 pts
Returned: 312.60 pts
P/L + 10.60 pts (after commission)

Cheltenham 2013: Sir remains on Gold trail

Sir des Champs could run in the Gold Cup.

Connections of Sir Des Champs retain hope he will be a major player in this season's Cheltenham Gold Cup following his staying-on fourth in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last week...

The Willie Mullins-trained French import is set to return to Leopardstown for the Hennessy Gold Cup in February after he was beaten just three-quarters of a length by Tidal Bay.

Eddie O'Leary, manager for owners Gigginstown House Stud, is keeping his fingers crossed a better round of jumping can see him back on the winning trail.

O'Leary said: "We were happy with how he ran. He obviously made one or two jumping mistakes and if he'd had a clear round he would have been closer.

"I think he got slightly unsighted at one or two fences, which didn't help, but overall we were happy with how he performed.

"All going well, he'll go for the Hennessy next. Let's just hope all goes well in the meantime.

"After the way he ran (in the Lexus), hopefully at this stage he still has a chance in the Gold Cup, if we can sort his jumping out."

Davy Russell partnered Sir Des Champs and admits he could have ridden him closer to the pace.

"It was a good race and we went a good, honest pace the whole way. It was a good trial for what we'll be looking forward to in March," the champion jockey told At The Races.

"He has a lot of stamina and, in hindsight, over the first three fences I maybe should have been a little bit closer and I wouldn't have depended on his jumping as much as I needed to.

"A couple of mistakes just took him out of it, but he showed good heart and stayed on well."

Gigginstown were also represented in the Lexus by the Mouse Morris-trained First Lieutenant, who ran a blinder to finish second.

"It was the best run he's ever had at this time of year. In the past he has never really run well during the winter, he's really a spring horse," said O'Leary.

"This year he seems to be running much better during the winter, so if he can improve in the spring as he has in previous years, we'll be very happy.

"He'll go straight to Cheltenham now, for either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup.

"Mouse likes to run his horses at Christmas and go straight to Cheltenham and they always go there in top condition."

Pandorama was making his first appearance since the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup having been sidelined with a tendon injury.

Noel Meade's inmate came home seventh of the eight finishers and although there was no recurrence of the old problem, he has suffered a minor setback.

Meade said: "He's pulled a muscle behind and he's quite sore on it just at the moment.

"Paul (Carberry, jockey) thought he just stretched a bit at one of his fences.

"He won't be able to do anything for another week or so and we'll just have to see how he goes.

"Hopefully it's not too major as I'd like him to have his second run back in the Hennessy.

"It's unfortunate, but his front legs seems fine, which is the main thing."

The Shark Hanlon-trained Hidden Cyclone trailed home last of those that finished in the Lexus and is now set to come back in trip.

Hanlon said: "He has come out of the race well, he was just way too free.

"He was half running away with Andrew (McNamara) going down to the start.

"The plan was to settle him fourth or fifth but he couldn't do that as he was too free and he has unsurprisingly got very tired.

"In lesser company you can get away with it, but over three miles, in that ground and at that level, it's going to find you out.

"We'll come back to two and a half (miles) with him now.

"There is a race in Thurles, a race back at Leopardstown and the Red Mills Chase at Gowran.

"We'll stick to two and a half with him for now, until we can get him settled.

"He could go for the Ryanair Chase in Cheltenham, or, if we can get him to settle, we could still think about the Gold Cup."

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Singapore Preview: Poly record his Goal

Gary Crispe looks at the action in Singapore.

An outstanding but small field will contest the Open Happiness 2013 Stakes over 1100m this afternoon in Singapore, the first meeting for the new season...

Racing will be conducted on the poly surface something that will not worry the likely favourite Goal Keeper who will be out to maintain his unbeaten record on the all weather surface. Goal Keeper is unbeaten in six runs on the poly with his overall career record standing at eight wins from 13 race starts, making him one of Singapore's up and coming sprinters.

Timeform rated 103, Goal Keeper has won his last five racetrack appearances, the most recent in late October over 1200m on the turf where he easily disposed of a quality Kranji Stakes A field defeating above average restricted class sprinter Texan Takeover, another galloper who will be a force this season.

Goal Keeper steps up sharply in grade this afternoon, but trainer Theodore Kieser has shown great faith allocating the ride to claiming apprentice Troy See who will take three kilos off his back thereby ensuring a luxury weight of just 50.5kgs for the consistent sprinter.

Despite not having raced for 67 days, Goal Keeper should have no worries fitness wise, Kieser electing to trial the gelding early in December in preparation for this assignment. Perfectly drawn in two, See should have no trouble leading on this free flowing sprinter and it will take a superior effort from his rivals to get past him in the straight.

The accomplished sprinters Yin Xin, Valevole and Rapido Star loom as the main dangers in a competitive line up, the latter two not that well weighted this afternoon. The talented Yin Xin Timeform rated 104 brings some excellent form lines to the race, the gelding boasting a win over super sprinter, the consistent Mr Big at this course and distance back in August.

Last start Yin Xin was run down late with 59.5 kilos on his back in Kranji Stakes A class over 1000m on the poly so he will appreciate the weight relief dropping to 55 kilos this afternoon. Like Goal Keeper, Yin Xin is a poly specialist registering all seven career wins on the surface and if he reproduces the Mr Big form lines and ratings he looks a strong winning chance against his emerging rival.

The Pat Shaw-trained Valevole has gone to a new Timeform rating peak in two runs this campaign, his figure now standing at 87p but faces a big class rise on his last start hollow victory over 1100m on the poly in benchmark 97 grade at the end of November. On that occasion he sat off the speed over the 1100m journey but quickly dashed clear on straightening to win easily from Foxtrot Hotel.

This afternoon he is weighted "out of the handicap" on 50 kgs so he will need to continue his improvement to be a strong winning hope. He is also drawn a little wide today but has the speed to handy, although the map says he could easily to get trapped wide. In this class he cannot afford to do that so his chances hinge on Greg Cheyne giving him the perfect ride.

Last start winner Rapido Star is another galloper "out of the handicap" weighted on 50kgs however there are signs this fellow is regaining his form and ratings profile that saw him runner up to champion sprinter Rocket Man in Kranji Stakes A class in March.

Timeform rated 92 on the back of his impressive victory over Mr Big last start at 1000m on the poly, Rapido Star will need to continue that form into this afternoon's race. One advantage he does have is his quick turn of foot, something he showed last and just might become a vital factor if the leaders go too hard up front early.

Top weight Ghozi is likely to be good odds this afternoon but should not be overlooked. Timeform rated 107, the onetime quality galloper has been a bit down on form in recent runs having just three starts in the last twelve months after a 329 day layoff due to injury, the last over 1400m on the turf in late November when third to El Milagro.

Ghozi is likely to find the 1100m a shade short but he will have no trouble handling the poly surface where he has registered two wins from four starts. Enjoy a very interesting race and one that is likely to be a significant form reference in the weeks ahead.

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Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday December 31

Racing takes place at Lingfield on Monday.

Timeform suggest a trio of bets at Lingfield on Monday...

Despite the presence of several last time out winners, Lyric Ballad (12:30) looks set to pounce today and get off the mark in the nursery over seven furlongs. The daughter of Byron has caught the eye when finishing fourth at Kempton and Wolverhampton on her last two starts, not having the run of the race on both occasions and she can take advantage of a drop in the weights to take this event.

Commanche (13:30) landed a seven furlong maiden at Musselburgh for Bryan Smart in the summer of 2011 and returned to form for new connections on his all-weather debut when taking an 11-runner six furlong event on at Kempton earlier this month, forging clear and well on top at the line. A 5 lb higher mark will make life tougher here, but he appears revitalised by his new surroundings and remains unexposed on this surface, so looks one to be with.

Recent winning form is in short supply in the penultimate event on the card, but several runners are in decent nick including the prolific Chjimes (15:00), who is seeking his fourteenth success at this venue today. His last four runs here have all been creditable and have included a couple of placed efforts, so it's perhaps surprising that the handicapper has seen fit to drop him a further 2 lb in the weights. It's possible the eight-year-old will take advantage of this leniency and further add to his impressive course tally.

Timeform SmartPlays
All at Lingfield
Back Lyric Ballad @ 5.49/2 in the 12:30
Back Commanche @ 2.77/4 in the 13:30
Back Chjimes @ 5.24/1 in the 15:00

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Perth Cup Preview: Weighty issue for Cup

The Perth Cup takes place at Ascot.

The G2 Perth Cup at Ascot boasts a capacity field to do battle over the tough 2400m, however weight could be the deciding factor in the outcome of Western Australia's feature race...

First run in 1887 over two miles, the race has not been without controversy, 1987 winner Rocket Racer immediately coming to mind. Several leading trainers from the East, Bart Cummings a prime example quite often targeted the race with his "two milers". In fact Bart sent two time Melbourne Cup winner Think Big over for the 1975 renewal finishing third behind Runyon.

Rogan Josh winner of the 1999 Melbourne Cup was second in the 1999 renewal and Rising Fear another Melbourne Cup placegetter was second in 1989. In 2009 the distance of the race was changed from 3200m to 2400m and the race's influence on feature staying events in the east has diminished as a result.

However this afternoon's field does contain gallopers who have raced well in Melbourne at various stages of their careers such as Playing God, God Has Spoken and Ranger and when adding recent Sydney Christmas Cup winner Cantonese into the mix, the depth in this year's renewal profiles stronger than in recent years.

An alarming statistic for those runners at the head of the weights is the highest winning weight since 1913 when Artesian carried 60.5kgs has been just 55.5 kgs and in that period just two horses have carried it to victory, Lords Ransom (2010) and England's Dust (1961). That augers well for the top Timeform weight adjusted rated runner, the Sydneysider Cantonese who is the "new blood" in the race.

Trained by emerging talent Bjorn Baker at Warwick Farm, Cantonese Timeform rated 108 has had a long campaign but holds his form well. After working his way through restricted class in Sydney, he stepped up to the Listed Christmas Cup over 2400m and with new rider Jimmy Cassidy in the saddle, led throughout to win as he liked by six lengths.

That was Cantonese's fourteenth run this preparation in a campaign that started at Kembla Grange back in mid June taking his Timeform rating from 75 to 108 in the process. The 2400m should hold no fear for the son of Redoute's Choice with the only query being whether he has come to the end of his improvement this preparation.

Cantonese has also made the long journey across the Nullabor Plain to tackle today's race but if he reproduces his Sydney form he will certainly take some running down. Given the history is against top weights, weight adjusted Timeform ratings suggest the danger to Cantonese will come from the lowly weighted Pop Culture.

The lightly raced mare and winner of the WA Oaks over today's course and trip has been given an excellent preparation winning three of her last five starts, including her last run as odds on favourite in the Listed WA St Leger over 2100m ten days ago. On that occasion she showed she was looking for further running on stoutly in the closing stages for a comfortable win.

The daughter of VRC Derby winner Blackfriars is Timeform rated 108 and showed she is well up to this company with an eye catching fourth to Luckygray in the G1 Kingston Town Stakes under weight for age conditions two runs back. On direct weight comparisons from that race she meets top weight Mr Moet three and a half kilos better for just under a length defeat - quite a substantial turnaround for today's assignment.

If there is any chink in the armour of Cantonese, Pop Culture is the one to expose it. The form pattern exhibited by 2010 renewal winner Lords Ransom suggests he could be ready to produce a peak rating effort this afternoon.

The now nine-year-old has raced three times since a spell and while his runs look disappointing on paper he is on an upward ratings spiral and is ready to improve again this afternoon. And his record fourth run back from a spell is potent - four starts for three wins in that state.

It is also worth remembering that at the back end of his last preparation he did score impressive victories in both the Pinjarra and Bunbury Cups. A repeat of that form would see him well placed today. It is a long time since Ranger has won a race, 423 days in fact, but this might just be his opportunity to break the drought.

He has been improved by recent racing and did start second favourite in the G1 Railway Stakes over 1600m when resuming only to have a interrupted run in the straight beaten less than two lengths behind Mr Moet. Ranger failed next time out in the Kingston Town when second up but then finished third to Mr Moet in the Cox Stakes. He too has a weight pull off that galloper this afternoon of 3.5kgs.

Ranger failed as a four-year-old behind Guest Wing in the 2011 Perth Cup but is worth considering again.
Shamardashing looms as the "knock out" horse. Owned by the troubled Patinack Farm group, this fellow has been given a solid staying preparation by trainer John Thompson. When last in work he showed good staying ability during the Brisbane winter Carnival finishing fourth in the Premiers Cup and Tatt's Cup behind handy stayers before taking the G3 Grafton Cup over 2300m in a stout staying performance.

After kicking off this campaign in Melbourne, Thompson has given the gelding three good runs in Perth, the last behind Mr Moet in the Cox Stakes where he settled last early but was making good ground late. To carry the limit weight of 53kgs, Shamardashing is a genuine improver who will run the 2400m out better than most. A definite chance at good odds and one to consider for the multiples.

Enjoy another Perth Cup renewal.

Recommendation
Back >Cantonese @ 6.05/1 in the Perth Cup

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Timeform Radio Tips: Monday December 31

Today's bets are at Lingfield.

David Cleary supplies a number of bets on today's card at Lingfield...

The rain it raineth every day, or so it seems, and even though Uttoxeter has somehow survived the deluge, conditions are sure to be atrocious. It may be better concentrating on Lingfield, which provides eight races on polytrack to end the year. The feature handicap is the seven-furlong affair at 14.30, and this looks quite competitive, with a case to be made for at least half the eight-runner field. Cut Across comes here in top form but is creeping up the weights without winning and is now tried in blinkers. Decent Fella is definitely interesting, dropped to a more realistic grade. He's been given a chance by the handicapper and his stable, that of Violet Jordan, is in its best form for a long time. Market support for Decent Fella is certainly worth noting. The solid option, though, is Kung Hei Fat Choy. He was a ready winner of a competitive event over course and distance last time out, form that's proved solid, suggesting he ought to have gone up more than 3 lb. Kung Hei Fat Choy is the one to beat.

The five-furlong handicap at 15.00 is another open-looking contest. Molly Jones wasn't seen to best advantage last time and her form the time before gives her every chance. She's one to consider but Atlantic Beach makes appeal too. He was off eight months before shaping well on his penultimate start and may have found his last run coming too soon on the back of that. Atlantic Beach should be spot on now.

Timeform Radio Tips:
All at Lingfield
Back Kung Hei Fat Choy @ 3.814/5 in the 14.30
Back Molly Jones @ 11.010/1 and Atlantic Beach @ 9.08/1 in the 15.00

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Timeform US SmartPlays: Monday December 31

Timeform's US team suggest a trio of bets for tonight's action...

Aqueduct race 2 (17:58 GMT) win back #1 GIRL CODE at 3.814/5 or longer

Aqueduct race 9 (21:18 GMT) win lay #11 POINT TAKEN at 4.03/1 or shorter

Turf Paradise race 8 (22:44) win back #1 MAJOR MAGIC at 4.67/2 or longer

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Lingfield Placepot: Monday December 31

Robert Winston will be aboard Lyric Ballad at 12:30.

Lingfield's all-weather card is the target of Timeform's Matt Gardner, as we attempt to make the final Placepot of 2012 a winning one...

12:00 - There is very little to separate Eagle Nebula, Mount Abora and Priestley's Reward in the opening leg so, with just the two places on offer, we will stick in the first mentioned pair relatively safe in the knowledge that at least one will hit the mark.

12:30 - Lyric Ballad's current price of 5.85/1 is fairly surprising given how she has caught the eye on each of her last two starts and remains open to improvement. Three places are up for grabs here, and the two-year-old goes in as our first banker of the afternoon.

13:00 - This looks between Sherinn and Liliana but with six looking likely to line up we need only take one, and it is the former that makes the list. Her latest effort at Wolverhampton wasn't quite up to the form of her Newmarket debut but it was much better than her second start and she is bred to be suited by this step up in trip, so should go well here.

13:30 - Commanche made his all-weather debut a winning one at Kempton earlier this month and is taken to follow up here. That effort saw the three-year-old return to form on his first outing for this yard, having left Bryan Smart, and he remains well-treated on his old form on a mark of 64, so is entitled to go close.

14:00 - This is fairly competitive so we will need to take two in order to progress. Do More Business races from just out of the weights but returned to form in a C&D handicap recently and ought to go well once more. Johnstown Lad hasn't shown much in two starts since returning from a lengthy break but is equipped with headgear once more and that may spark a return to form, so is worth sticking in.

14:30 - Sunshine Always' win record suggests he isn't a certainty to follow up his C&D win earlier this month but, with a strong pace in evidence once more, conditions seem to be in his favour, and he is banked upon to see us across the line.

Selections:
12:00 - 1, 3
12:30 - 8
13:00 - 5
13:30 - 2
14:00 - 5, 9
14:30 - 8
= 4 lines

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Home and Away: Hosts have the Beiting of Ashdod today

Kashiwa are looking to secure their third Emperor's Cup in the early hours of tomorrow.

Jonno Turner selects two tips to end 2012 with a bang in his Home and Away column.

We're off to Israel for the first of our two picks today, and Beitar Jerusalem host FC Ashdod at the Teddy Stadium, looking to make it five unbeaten.

Eli Cohen's side have lost just one of their last half a dozen Ligat Ha'al home clashes ahead of this one, and will be keen to continue that momentum in order to lift themselves into the Championship Round places.

And the Menorah have smashed 11 goals in six on their own patch, which indicates that they possess more than enough attacking quality to punish their opponents here.

Their guests travel to the capital in miserable form, and have lost four of their last five - shipping seven goals in that time.

Those totals suggest that Yossi Mizrahi's side have issues defensively, and that could have a major bearing on the outcome of this encounter.

Just one win in seven away from the Yud-Alef Stadium suggests that the visitors may struggle in this one - and just two goals scored in five on their travels indicates that they may be lacking the necessary cutting edge in the final third to take anything from this clash.

And the Dolphins, who currently sit in fourth place in the table, are slipping fast - and could see themselves out of the top six if they don't secure a positive result from this game.

The last time these two sides met at the Teddy, the hosts ran out 1-0 winners, and I expect them to chalk up another three points here.

Bet 1: Beitar Jerusalem (HOME) @ 2.46

Over to Japan now, and Kashiwa travel to Gamba Osaka in the final of the Emperor's Cup, aiming to extend their excellent form of late which has seen them lose just one of seven.

Nelsinho Baptista's side have won three on the trot ahead of this one, and that will have them buoyed and full of confidence ahead of this massive game.

Four wins from five games away from the Hitachi Kashiwa Soccer Stadium indicates that the Sun Kings have enough momentum and vigour to win this tie, and eight goals scored in their last four away wins shows that they have the firepower to do so, too.

Gamba go into this one in similarly good form, and have been formidable on their own patch of late.

But just three wins from six away from the Banpaku Kinen Koen Sports Stadium recently suggests that they may struggle to transpose that form to the venue of this final, the Tokyo National Stadium.

And six games without a clean sheet indicates that Masanobu Matsanami's side may be struggling in defence at the moment - a possible weakness for their opposition to exploit.

This will be a tough one to call - but Kashiwa are unbeaten in four against Gamba, winning three of those, and I think that they will have enough in the tank to claim their third Emperor's Cup here.

Bet 2: Kashiwa (AWAY) @ 2.98

West Brom vs Fulham: Back Baggies to beat frail Fulham

Scotland's James Morrison is having an excellent season for West Brom

West Bromwich Albion are enjoying a superb campaign, and Kevin Hatchard expects them to rack up another three points against struggling Fulham.

West Bromwich Albion vs Fulham, New Year's Day 12:45 BST, Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: WBA 2.021/1, Fulham 4.1n/a, the draw 3.711/4

As someone who has regularly covered West Brom games for the past few seasons, I have no shame in saying that it's nice to see them doing so well. Head Coach Steve Clarke has built on solid foundations laid by Roberto Di Matteo and Roy Hodgson, adding his own sprinklings of tactical fairy dust. Albion have their strongest squad for many seasons, and they lie seventh in the table, just three points behind fourth-placed Tottenham.

The strength of Albion's squad has been tested by a long injury list, and a host of key players face fitness tests before Fulham arrive at The Hawthorns. Key midfielders Claudio Yacob and Youssuf Mulumbu could both miss out, while imposing centre-back Jonas Olsson is struggling with a groin injury sustained against QPR. It's tempting to think that Albion will struggle if all of these players are missing, but a patched-up side battled well in a 2-0 defeat at Manchester United, only conceding the second goal in stoppage-time. That defeat followed impressive 2-1 wins over Norwich and QPR.

Albion's home record this term has been outstanding, with seven wins, a draw and two defeats. The Baggies have scored a respectable 16 goals in front of their own fans, conceding just seven (no PL team has let in fewer goals at home). To give Baggies fans further hope, midfielders Chris Brunt and James Morrison are on excellent form.

Fulham started the campaign brightly, but a run of one win in 12 games has seen them dragged into the relegation melee. The Cottagers have lost four of their last six matches, and they've kept just two clean sheets in 16 games. Dimitar Berbatov is by far their best player - he has scored six goals and has created a further three. Fulham always look capable of scoring (no-one in the bottom half has netted more than their 30 goals), but their defence is fragile. Stand-in goalkeeper David Stockdale was at fault for both goals in the weekend's 2-1 home defeat to Swansea, and the Cottagers will be praying that first choice Mark Schwarzer can recover from injury.

It's not just the goalkeeping department which is a worry. Fulham's defence looked desperately poor in a recent 4-0 thrashing at Liverpool, and normally dependable players such as Aaron Hughes and Jon Arne Riise have been making mistakes. Given the firepower available to West Brom (Peter Odemwingie, Romelu Lukaku and Shane Long are all available), I suspect Fulham's rearguard may be in for a torrid start to 2013.

I think West Brom are decent value for the home win at 2.021/1, especially against a Fulham side low on confidence. That said, I fancy Fulham to score, so I would also look at backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9310/11.

Recommended Bets: Back West Brom to win at 2.021/1

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9310/11

League Two: Chance for Bristol to cream victory

Torquay should find some festive joy and a victory over AFC Wimbledon to be plain sailing

Ian Lamont says Bristol Rovers should give new manager John Ward his first victory, while the festive sweet box throws up a fourth away win running for Rotherham

Bristol Rovers 2.56/4 Plymouth 3.02/1 Draw 3.55/2 kick-off 13:00

The chances of Bristol Rovers winning appear more likely than the last time they achieved a victory, eight games ago, when they conjured three points against Chesterfield. At Aldershot on Boxing Day, their spirit saw them twice come from a goal down to earn this column a "home lay" success with a 2-2 draw. With that behind them they will fancy their chances in John Ward's first home game in charge against their 'derby' rivals. Confidence is still fragile, but they must take hope into the game, with Plymouth scoring just five times in eight games.

Argyle are, though, a tough nut to crack. They rarely feature in high-scoring games. They have conceded in six of the last seven games - but only once each time. Under 2.5 goals is therefore worth a wager, in addition to the home win.

Back Bristol Rovers @ 2.56/4

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.9420/21

Rochdale 2.962/1 Rotherham 2.546/4 Draw 3.55/2

The festive sweety tin appears to leave sparce pickings in terms of juicy big price away selections. Not one that will come off, anyway. For example Exeter might have won their last three away games but their overall form (one win in five) hardly warrants a bet against Wycombe's 13 points from six matches. Rochdale's respite from a defeat-strewn run of six defeats in nine in all competitions might be worth opposing, as the opposition are imposing Rotherham. It is true that Rochdale have scored four times in each of their two victories, coming in the past three games and that they have not been goalshy in the aforementioned defeats. Bobby Grant (11 goals this season), Terry Gornell (five in six) and Ashley Grimes (five in four) are all in form. However, Dale seem to need to score more than twice to take any points. The Millers have three straight away wins, all by one goal and two of them 1-0. Steve Evans' men will be well drilled to keep a tight grip on the forces that come their way and well up for it as he threatens to bring in reinforcements in January, with promotion paramount.

Back Rotherham @ 2.546/4

Barnet 2.546/4 Aldershot 32/1 The Draw 3.412/5

Aldershot have a strong record against the Bees at this time of year. However, I rarely give too much credit to 'yesteryear' statistics. Current season form offers greater context. Undoubtedly, Aldershot would have envisaged themselves kicking on from a mid-table finish last season, not grappling round the Football League's nether regions. But if they think they have a false position, the table never lies. They are in a relegation scrap. For all the unpredictable excellence of Danny Hylton, the skills of Peter Vincenti and the experience of Ben Herd and Anthony Tonkin, it took the loan signing of Dani Lopez to kick-start their season.

Dean Holdsworth always seems to have a squad in transition beset by injuries. The draw with Bristol Rovers seems to sum up their predicament: they draw with fellow strugglers, having previously done so with then-lowly Dagenham, Wycombe and Wimbledon. A total of 14 points from 13 games even compares unfavourably with Barnet (20 from 13). Another error-strewn draw beckons for the Shots.

Back the draw @ 3.412/5

Torquay 1.758/11 AFC Wimbledon 5.49/2 Draw 4.03/1

The Dons conceding 41 goals in 22 games makes Torquay an obvious choice for a victory. The Gulls' injury list might have eased. Saturday's postponement at Aldershot might have given Billy Bodin and Lee Mansell the chance to recover, but Torquay should still have enough to see off an AFC Wimbledon side short of confidence, even if Martin Ling will be looking to bolster his squad in the transfer window. Rene Howe is well overdue a goal, having notched 10 up to mid-October. It would be a major surprise if the visitors, who have two points from six games, could muster anything here.

Neal Ardley's rally cry for new recruits is eerily reminiscent of his doomed predecessor Terry Brown. Ardley will need a serious change in fortunes to keep the Dons out of the bottom two come May.

Back Torquay @ 1.758/11

Gordon Elliott: My thoughts on Shrapnel at Punchestown today

Gordon saddles Shrapnel at Punchestown today

Shrapnel has won both starts for Gordon Elliott since he arrived at Cullentra House stables but faces a tough task in the handicap hurdle at Punchestown under topweight...

14.35 Punchestown - Shrapnel

I'm quite happy with him since he came over to our yard - he's a quirky enough sort but he's improved a good deal and he's now won twice for us so I can't complain. I mentioned before that we might go chasing with him but we'll wait until next season for that - he's only six so he's still young enough. As regards his chances here, he has a lot of weight and it's a competitive race so it's going to be tough. But Davy Russell knows the horse very well and I reckon we've a decent each-way chance.

Timeform Daily: Monday, Lingfield 14:30

Monday's Timeform Daily comes from Lingfield

Timeform provide a runner-by-runner guide to an interesting handicap at Lingfield...

Decent Fella was a useful handicapper and was fifth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and Bunbury Cup on first 2 starts this year. Below form since, though, including on debut for another new yard here last week.

Brocklebank has won 2 claimers in recent weeks for Kevin Ryan, changing hands for 10,000 after C&D success last time. Returns to handicap company from stiff-looking mark, though.

Saharia regained the winning thread at Kempton (1m) in August and has won over 8.6f at Wolverhampton since, though his mark has suffered as a consequence and handicapper looks in charge for now.

Kung Hei Fat Choy responded well to the fitting of blinkers when winning twice at Southwell in July, and returned to form when readily taking C&D handicap earlier this month. Likely to go well again and shortlisted.

Quasi Congaree scored at Newmarket last year but operating below his best this time around, well held when ninth in C&D handicap returning from 5-month absence recently.

Cut Across made a winning debut in 5f maiden here and off the mark in handicaps when winning at Wolverhampton over this trip. Good in-frame efforts all 3 starts since and may improve further now blinkers fitted.

Beautiful Day's 3 wins have been gained at Southwell, but struggling for form at present and looks one to avoid for now.

Sunshine Always ended a long losing run to land C&D handicap earlier this month, doing well given he wasn't ideally placed off steady pace. His win record suggests he isn't an obvious candidate to follow up, though

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Kung Hei Fat Choy
2. Cut Across
3. Sunshine Always

Timeform View: Kung Hei Fat Choy returned to winning ways over C&D earlier this month and can follow up, with Cut Across looking the best option for forecast backers.

Half-price Race Passes with brand new features - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. And get a FREE gift too! Find out more at timeform.com.

New Year Honours List: The betting.betfair version

Did Adam Scott choke at the Open Championship?

It's been a great year of sport with some moments staying in Mike Norman's memory more than most. Here our man hands out his mock New Year Honours...

Adam Scott - H-MC
(presenting the award - Greg Norman)

The Australian golfer becomes an Honorary member of the Master of Chokes club after buckling down the stretch at the 2012 Open Championship. Scott held a six-shot lead over eventual winner Ernie Els at the start of the final day, but four consecutive bogies from the 15th hole handed the Claret Jug to the South African.

A lot of people suggested that Scott did little wrong on those final four holes and acquisitions that he failed to handle the pressure were unfair. In an exclusive Betfair interview we asked the Australian for his own thoughts on the collapse. Unfortunately Adam took one sip of his water and choked. So I guess we'll never know.

Scott is available to back at 34.033/1 to win the 2013 Open Championship, with Rory McIlroy the current 10.09/1 favourite.

Michael Phelps - CGA
(presenting the award - Larisa Latynina)

Phelps becomes the first recipient of a Cash for Gold Ambassador role after becoming the most decorated Olympian in history at London 2012. He has a staggering 22 Olympic medals to his name, 18 of those gold, meaning he will never be short of a few bob if he ever has to request one of those pre-paid 'Cash for Gold' packs in the post.

Neymar - WII
(presenting the award - Chris Waddle)

No, Neymar hasn't been awarded a games console in our New Year Honours list, he's been made a member of the ever-increasing Where Is It club. Just six weeks ago Brazil played Colombia in an international friendly. With the scores tied at 1-1 and with just a few minutes remaining the Brazil striker was handed the opportunity to win the game from the penalty spot, but what followed has to be seen to believed (so take a look yourself below).

Handing over the award Waddle is rumoured to have told Neymar it was the worst pel-an-ty he's ever seen, but thanked him for making people stop talking about his own 1990 World Cup miss. Sorry Chris, your ball is still on the up, and was last seen heading towards Jupiter!

Andre Villas-Boas - PNF
(presenting the award - Roberto di Matteo)

In June 2011 Villas-Boas walked into Stamford Bridge with a project, so it's only right that he is made a member of the Project Non Finished club after his dismissal in March 2012. Should we be surprised though? He's young, a student of the game, and we all know how much work students do in this day and age!

AVB's Tottenham are 2.588/5 to record a Top 4 Finish this season.

Lee Dixon - GTS
(presenting the award - Mike Norman)

Betfair Ambassador Dixon has enjoyed a fabulous start to the 2012-13 football season, tipping some huge price winners and showing a healthy profit on all his recommended bets. It's only right then that he becomes a recipient of a GTS - a Great Tipping Sir award.

Lee has taken full advantage of Manchester United's inability to keep a clean sheet though we can confirm that he is NOT the defensive coach at Old Trafford. Lee wasn't a bad player you know, though unfortunately Youtube don't keep clips from the 50s so you'll just have to take our word for it!

Why am I presenting Lee this award? Well last season I tipped Reading to win the Championship at 18.017/1 and this term I've recommended wagers on Middlesbrough at 24.023/1 and Hull at 30.029/1, two of the top three clubs in the table. No one else will beat your drum in this game you know.

Bradley Wiggins - SFP
(presenting the award - Keving Keegan)

It's been a monumental year for Wiggo, becoming the first Briton to win the Tour de France, winning gold at the Olympics, and being named Sports Personality of the Year just a few weeks ago. But we believe it was all down to his sideburns.

On the day that he trimmed his famous hair growth Wiggo was knocked off his bike whilst out training, by someone with longer hair than him (I'm not allowed to say the sex of the driver though it wasn't a male).

So who better to hand Wiggins his Sideburns For Power award than Kevin Keegan, a man who donned a similar hair growth in the 70s. The only difference is, you wouldn't find Keegan falling off his bike.

Oh go on then, just one more peek. Happy New Year every one.

Premier League: Lambert can still make Villa as safe as houses

Paul Lambert is a man under pressure

Despite a woeful festive run, Aston Villa can look forward to some promise of some New Year's returns, says Romilly Evans...

Red-top headline writers never need much pun-based inspiration around Christmas time. But Aston Villa's recent travails have been manna from heaven. From "Glad Hidings" to "Pantomime Villans", Villa are the gift that keeps on giving. Quite literally too, when it comes to their opposition: three straight defeats over the festive period, 15 goals conceded and none scored.

Small wonder, then, that manager Paul Lambert is looking like a forlorn child rummaging around a crowded Christmas tree, desperately trying to uncover one present addressed to him. He's come up empty-handed so far. Which you might've expected after fixtures against two Top Four sides (8-0 to Chelsea and 4-0 to Tottenham).

However, Saturday's 3-0 hammering at the feet of fellow strugglers, Wigan, was an unacceptable nadir. Not only did it arrive at home but it also comprehensively crystallised all the defensive frailties which have consigned the Claret and Blues to the murky depths of another relegation battle.

Owner Randy Lerner even popped in for his seasonal visit to Villa Park. Most institutions can wing it when the chairman stops by for an annual review. Take him out for a long lunch, sweep the dirt under the rug and give Dave, that liability from Marketing, the day off.

Instead, Lerner more closely resembled a health and safety inspector paying an impromptu visit to Fawlty Towers, only to find Manuel as his Maitre D'. Still, at least Manuel hailed from Barcelona. Lerner and Lambert must be wishing some of their own players did.

So when you lift the lid on the Villa cloche, what rats have been gnawing at the green shoots of recovery? Well, in fairness to Lambert, the problem is more to do with the players he's missing than those he has available.

Talented as they may be, the side which took the field at the weekend sported an average age of 23. Without experience and leadership marshalling their ranks, any early strike was going to dent the combined confidence of a team still reeling from that Cheslea-Spurs one-two. And so it proved, with Ivan Ramis stealing in unmarked for Wigan's first goal after just three minutes.

Surely such porous holes at the back would've been plugged by absent captain Ron Vlaar and Irish rock, Richard Dunne? Both men are still on the treatment table, alongside Charles N'Zogbia, Darren Bent and Gabby Agbonlahor, whose returns will also swell Villa's offensive options. Their forward line flickered sporadically in Saturday's first half, but was snuffed out by the time Arouna Kone had bagged Wigan's third with over half an hour remaining. Two shots on target will never cut it at this level and many Villa fans agreed, leaving their seats early having seen enough.

Only a week earlier, some of those same supporters were chanting Lambert's name in loyal encouragement. And it is worth remembering that their immediate future looked a good deal rosier when Christian Benteke led the Villans to an impressive 3-1 win at Anfield. Lambert also had a soft League Cup semi-final to look forward to against Bradford which could still set the club on the path to their first piece of domestic silverware since 1996.

However, as Lambert says: "the players and supporters must stand together and fight." Else even a trip to Valley Parade on 8th January might seem like another unstable bridge back to self-belief. More imminently in the Premier League, though, Villa have a New Year's day-trip to an erratic Swansea to worry about.

Lambert's outfit have leaked the most goals in the top flight this term and scored the fewest. If you want to take first prize in a state-the-obvious competition, you would conclude that this is relegation form. But Villa stand one point above the drop zone in a tight bottom half of the table, where Reading and QPR are already cut adrift as the most likely basement bargains.

As a result, the 2.727/4 on Aston Villa being relegated makes little appeal. The return of some key personnel could soon set them on the rocky road to mid-table mediocrity, while Lerner could even free up some more millions in January. In short, this is a time for clear heads and looking forward, not back.

Sounds like the stuff of a classic new year's resolution.

Premier League Results: Chelsea up to third after Lampard brace

Lampard wonders why he still hasn't been offered a new contract

Chelsea record a tremendous victory at in-form Everton, and Liverpool hammer bottom-of-the-table QPR at Loftus Road in the final game of 2012. Mike Norman details the In-Play odds...

Chelsea regained third position in the table and are in to 8.88/1 to win the Premier League title after a hard-fought 2-1 victory at Goodison Park this afternoon.

It wasn't at all straightforward for Rafa Benitez' men however as the Blues found themselves a goal down inside 65 seconds when a Victor Anichebe header rebounded off the post in to the path of Steven Pienaar who fired home from 12 yards.

Everton looked dominant in the early stages but failed to get that crucial second goal, and they were made to pay as half time approached. Fernando Torres got free down the right, played in Ramires who supplied a pinpoint cross for Frank Lampard to plant home a header.

The 1-1 Half Time Score was matched at a high of 11.010/1 In-Play, whilst Pienaar was backed at 25.024/1 in the First Goalscorer market.

In a well-contested second half it was Chelsea that got the winning goal through that man Lampard. A Juan Mata shot was saved by Tim Howard but the ball eventually fell to the England midfielder who prodded home from close range to secure the points for the away side, as well as fire a warning to the Chelsea hierarchy who are still to offer Lampard a new contract.

The Blues were matched at a high of 6.611/2 to win the game when they trailed in the early stages whilst man-of-the-match Lampard was backed at 28.027/1 to score two goals or more.

In the later game Liverpool thrashed QPR 3-0 to leave the London club deep in relegation trouble.

The Reds - who were without flu-ridden manager Brendan Rodgers for the day - were two goals up inside quarter of an hour thanks to the brilliance of Luis Suarez, and when Daniel Agger made it 3-0 after 28 minutes the game was as good as over.

Liverpool could have had five or six in the first period, but they were happy with three, and although QPR put up a spirited second half performance the result was never in doubt.

Suarez was matched at 6.411/2 in the First Goalscorer market whilst the 0-3 Correct Score was matched at 25.024/1 In-Play.

QPR stay rooted to the bottom of the table after Reading's victory yesterday and Harry Redknapp's men are now available to back at just 1.292/7 in the Relegation market.

League One Betting: A new year, a new Hartlepool?

The much loved Hartlepool mascot H'Angus the Monkey

Following some topsy-turvy results over Christmas, can Hartlepool (the conquerors of league leaders Sheffield United) gain another result against out-of-form Preston on New Year's Day? Our League One man Alan Dudman also looks to the potential promotion clash of Bournemouth at Brentford in the best of the 2013 fixtures.

Brentford 2.3411/8 v Bournemouth 3.2011/5, the draw 3.45n/a

A near top-of-the-table clash on New Years Day awaits, with two of the form teams in the division both bringing impressive runs, with Brentford undefeated in 10, and Bournemouth 15 and counting.

Dealing with Brentford first, who have picked up four points over Christmas (although disappointingly couldn't break down a stubborn Shrewsbury Town on Saturday), they are increasingly looking promotion material. Bees boss Uwe Rosler described the Shrews game as a fair result, and the 90 minutes certainly had the defences on top.

In fact, that 0-0 at Shrewsbury was in the face of some crazy results at the weekend, none more so than the 3-2 Hartlepool win at table-toppers Sheffield United. Brentford used effectively a 4-1-4-1 against Town but were forced to switch in the second-half with 'two holders' and two strikers. The Londoners do have goals in them, as they have hit 21 at Griffin Park this season.

Meanwhile Bournemouth moved up to fifth and are looking like title winners to me. They are now 15 unbeaten
and won all five games in December. Christmas encounters are often about maximising the potential of the home matches - of which the Cherries took six points with two shut-outs. Perfect.

It's important to mention the clean sheets, something manager Eddie Howe was striving for. The young defensive pairing of Tommy Elphick and Steve Cook (combined age 46) are looking very assured, whilst their 4-4-2 has width and plenty of firepower.

Saturday's 3-0 win over Crawley was most impressive, and I liked Josh McQuoid being used as a livewire winger.

Both are in such tremendous form that it's hard to split them. Arguably the case for Bournemouth is attractive considering the generous price, but they are keeping clean sheets which provides a good platform. And remember Brentford's knack of scoring late goals In-Play.

Recommended bets:
Back the draw @ 3.505/2
Back 0-0 @ 13.012/1 and 1-1 @ 8.07/1

Coventry City 1.774/5 v Shrewsbury Town 5.104/1, the draw 3.8514/5

Another of the form teams in League One at the moment is Coventry, and from nowhere have entered the promotion picture by moving up to ninth in the table. New boss Mark Robins has not only got them organised, but are showing the ability to attack teams at will.

The Sky Blues have won six of their last eight (drawing the other two) and have hit four against Doncaster, five against Walsall and Hartlepool, whilst smashing the MK Dons for three on Saturday. It's an impressive run.

The Dons match was a cracking Christmas game on Saturday, with both attacking at ferocious pace providing a real end- to-end spectacle. Robins described their play as 'magnificent', and it was all done without leading marksman David McGoldrick who was serving a one-match suspension. He is one of the best in the division.

Eight of Coventry's last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals, and are on such a roll, it's unlikely Shrewsbury will visit the Ricoh with the intention of attack. An early goal will be crucial in terms of the potential for an overs bet.

Salop's 0-0 home draw against Brentford showed how resilient they can be, and they really fought hard to keep out the in-form Bees who had won five straight before Saturday's game. Graham Turner's men are just one defeat from eight matches, but they have drawn far too many on the road (five).

Recommended bets:
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.9010/11
Back Coventry City to win @ 1.774/5

Hartlepool United 3.65n/a v Preston North End 2.1211/10, the draw 3.505/2

Hartlepool had gone 23 matches and four months without a win prior to Saturday. They had failed to find the net in three matches prior to the weekend, and were 14 points from safety. So who would have predicted their amazing 3-2 win at the league leaders Sheffield United? Not me, that's for sure, and some of those lucky Hartlepool backers would have got 11.010/1 pre-match on that win.

Having just about got over the shock of that victory, it makes you wonder how such a result can be achieved for a team that were so chronically lacking in confidence. Their plan to go very direct to Steve Howard (who scored twice) obviously worked, but Sheffield United lost all the second-balls and couldn't deal with Howard's muscular presence.

Can you trust Pools to back up a 'come from nowhere' win? I am not so sure.

And then you read who the opponents are on New Year's Day - Preston North End. A side who were winless over Christmas with a heavy home defeat to Doncaster Rovers and a tame 0-0 against Bury. Manager Graham Westley was booed on Saturday - and not for that hideous fashion combo of the pink v-neck and blazer.

Westley is under pressure, and their current league position is not good enough for the club of North End's side. An ever-changing team has hardly helped, but the football isn't quite there. The Whites know how to defend but sadly are lacking the know-how of winning matches.

Pools had nothing to lose against the Blades, a totally different match to this home affair. Whilst Preston will be feeling nervous and will be set-up not to concede too early. It's a game worth chancing a 0-0 trade on, unless of course Hartlepool were too good to be true.

Recommended bets:
Back the draw @ 3.505/2
Back 0-0 @ 12.011/1

Wayne Mardle: Taylor and MVG to prevail on an unmissable night of darts

Phil Taylor will be up for this one alright

We've reached the semi-final stage at Ally Pally and four of the best darts players in the world will throw tonight for a place in Tuesday's final. Wayne Mardle previews the action...

Michael van Gerwen V James Wade

Both had to fight all the way for their wins in the quarter-finals, both winning 5-4, Wade having to come from 2-0 down to get the better of West Newton, and MVG prevailing in arguably the best quarter-final ever witnessed at the World Championships.

Michael showed that the Achilles problem he has is not affecting him at all, even being up on the stage for nine sets playing at a rapid pace against the world champ Adrian Lewis couldn't stop him.

The scoring phase of Van Gerwen's game is incredible, the stats say that he will earn himself a dart at a double before Wade, in nearly every leg. That means James will be reliant on the Dutchman missing, and although he lost a few legs against Lewis due to missed doubles, I can't see him missing enough to let Wade get thet better of him.

Wade has shown a lot of character in this World Championship however having come into it having dealt with mental health issues. He showed a fighting quality against Newton that had been missing from his game for the last four months. But if he is going to win this game he's going to have to score better than he has done all tournament and hope that Michael puts in a below-par performance.

Van Gerwen is massive odds on for a reason (available to back at just 1.251/4), he's simply the better out of the two on current form.

Selection: Back Van Gerwen to win 6-2 @ 5.69/2

Phil Taylor V Raymond van Berneveld

The game's two biggest hitters over the years go head-to-head, but it's been a long time since Barney was at the top of his game when facing Taylor so this really is a mouth-watering prospect. And of course, they have just the 20 world titles between them!

This fixture has been somewhat of a mismatch over the last few years because Barney had lost his edge, lost his belief, lost his darting mojo. Well, as I've already alluded to, IT'S BACK.

The Dutchman will fancy his chances tonight and why not, if you think you can you can. He's scoring well and hitting doubles and that's why he's so confident.

But a word of caution, The Power has his number, he seems to somehow save his best for Barney, he likes beating the big man.

Phil Taylor has never lost in a World Championship semi-final, and I can't back against him here either. I wouldn't be surprised if Barney came out all guns blazing and beat The Power, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he came out and let The Power dictate proceedings.

On the basis that Taylor is far more reliable to fire in a 100+ average I think he will win, but certainly this is one game that any sports fan (never mind just fans of darts) will not want to miss.

Selection: Back Taylor to win @ 1.625/8

воскресенье, 30 декабря 2012 г.

Against All Odds: A not so Super Sunday

It could be a long afternoon for those in attendance

QPR host Liverpool in the Premier League this afternoon and while the Betfair markets favour goals, Paul Robinson doesn't think there will be too many.

QPR are back on the bottom of the pile after they lost 2-1 at home to West Brom. Harry Redknapp may have improved them enough to earn their first win of the season against Fulham, but they still look almost certain to go down, especially with Reading, Southampton and Wigan picking up points yesterday.

Rangers are devoid of quality in all areas of the field and they are making individual mistakes as well which are costing them goals. Rob Green was the latest as he tipped the ball into his own net after coming under minimal pressure from the attacker. They have played nine league games at Loftus Road so far this term, won one, lost four and drawn four. They have kept just one clean sheet and scored only eight goals themselves.

Liverpool fell to a 3-1 defeat at Stoke on Wednesday and after grabbing an early lead, the defence played very poorly and conceded three pretty sloppy goals. I'd expect Brendan Rodgers to have torn strips off his back four, Skrtel and Agger in particular and they should be looking to prove a point against QPR.

On the road, four of Liverpool's last seven in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals, with three going under 1.5 and the match at the Liberty Stadium at the end of November going under 0.5.

This has all the hallmarks of being a cagey affair and while I expect the Merseysiders to nick it, I don't envisage a goal fest. Therefore with over 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.9520/21 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in QPR v Liverpool @ 1.9520/21

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 301 pts
Returned: 312.60 pts
P/L + 11.60 pts (after commission)

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Sunday December 30

David Pipe could have a good day at Taunton

Timeform bring you three SmartPlays from today's National Hunt meeting at Taunton...

Having landed the hat-trick with a bit in hand at Wincanton on Boxing Day, Home Run (13:10) looks to have been found a good opportunity to carry on the winning sequence. The way he travelled through his race at Wincanton suggests that he is very much still a horse ahead of his mark and he remains open to further progress. David Pipe's four-year-old is clearly thriving at present and, crucially, is proven on testing ground. He looks to have plenty in his favour and should make a bold bid in his attempt to rattle up the four-timer.

Deireadh Re (14:55) hasn't matched the pick of his hurdles form in three attempts over fences, but there was plenty of encouragement in his latest effort at Sandown where he travelled well for a long way. Kindly, the handicapper has dropped Paul Nicholls' charge another 3 lb and he looks fairly treated over the larger obstacles. Testing conditions shouldn't pose any problems and it would be a surprise were Deireadh Re not to put up a good effort.

The sixth race on the Taunton card looks like a competitive affair but we will take a chance on the David Pipe-trained Waterunder. He has hinted at possessing ability on a few occasions, notably when beating It's A Gimme at Wincanton last year, and there were more positives to take from his Cheltenham return than the distance beaten would suggest. He is still fairly unexposed and can further his trainer's good record in the race following the success of Dynaste and Arab League in the last two renewals.

Timeform SmartPlays:
All at Taunton

Back Home Run @ 2.3411/8 in the 13:10
Back Deireadh Re @ 3.9n/a in the 14:55
Back Waterunder @ 7.06/1 in the 15:30

Half-price Race Passes with brand new features - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. And get a FREE gift too! Find out more at timeform.com.

Follow The Money: Flight to prove the Master at Taunton

Taunton is the venue for today's FTM best bet

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Lingfield and Taunton...

Starting at Lingfield in the 13:35 Maiden over 1m2f Dusty Red has drifted out to 3.4012/5 from 2.186/5. Her sire is Teofilo who was unbeaten as a two year old winning two group 1 races over seven furlongs. The three year old filly came fourth last time out at Lingfield and the race though reasonable was 206 days ago, and it is debatable how relevant that is in the context for today's race, though that may well be the best actual racing form shown so far. Her main competitor appears to be the debutant Golden Share whose trainer Marco Botti has been in good recent form.

Over to Taunton in the 13:45 2m7f Handicap Chase Master Flight has been backed in to 2.707/4 from 3.68n/a. Master Flight carries bottom weight 10st 0lb and that is significant when considering the ground is forecast heavy. Master Flight has had two runs at Doncaster finishing fourth both times and has had an absence of 312 days so should be fresh for today's race. His main competitors appear to be Dushy Valley and Midnight Charter.

Finally at Lingfield in the 15:20 handicap over 7f My Scat Daddy has been backed in to 4.2016/5 from 7.03n/a. The three year old gelding finished second last time out at Lingfield, and appears to run his best races over 7f at Lingfield, finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd from four starts so today's trips should be to his advantage.

Recommended bets

Lay Dust Red 3.4012/5 Lingfield 13:35
Back Master Flight @ 2.77/4 Taunton 13:45
Back My Scat Daddy @ 4.216/5 Lingfield 15:20

Timeform US SmartPlays: Sunday December 30

Timeform bring you three bets on Sunday

Timeform's US team bring you two bets from Aqueduct and one from Sunland Park on Sunday...

Aqueduct race 1 (17:30 GMT) win back #4 LINDELL A.C. at 4.03/1 or longer
Aqueduct race 8 (20:48 GMT) win back #3 RICE TO RICHES at 3.613/5 or longer
Sunland Park race 8 (22:15) win back #1 FRAUDULENTFOOTNOTE at 3.55/2 or longer

Brisbane International Preview: Raonic the value in week one

Will Milos Raonic have his eye on the ball this week?

The new tennis season has started and Sean Calvert is back with his preview of the week's opening tournaments, including the Brisbane International, where he likes the look of Milos Raonic...

The 2013 tennis season gets underway this weekend, with the traditional three ATP 250 events to concentrate on.

We rounded 2012 off in good style with a profitable Davis Cup Final and let's see if we can carry that on into the new season in Brisbane, Chennai and Doha this week.

The big news of the week was that Rafa Nadal, who was due to play in the Abu Dhabi exhibition before Doha and the Australian Open, has withdrawn from all of them - not with the knee problem apparently, but with a stomach virus.

The Spaniard reportedly feels that he wouldn't have enough practice time to be competitive in Melbourne, so we won't see him again now until the Golden Swing on clay in February, if we see him at all that is.

But Andy Murray, fresh from being awarded an OBE in the New Year's Honours List, is in Australia to defend his Brisbane International title and he's a pretty warm order to do so at around 1.8810/11

Murray turned up in Abu Dhabi to collect a few quid in a straight sets loss to Janko Tipsarevic in the exhibition event there a few days ago, but exhibitions mean very little and I would expect Murray to go close to retaining his title here.

The Scot's main opposition this week comes in the form of Milos Raonic, Gilles Simon, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Kei Nishikori and combined Murray is 15-1 against the latter trio.

An in-form Raonic would be the biggest threat to Murray and he proved last season that he does go well when fresh when he won the opening event of 2012 in Chennai, beating Janko Tipsarevic in a final that lasted more than three hours.

The draw sees Murray pitted against one of Martin Klizan, Radek Stepanek, Denis Istomin or Lleyton Hewitt in the last eight and probably Dolgopolov or Nishikori after that, although the likes of Julien Benneteau, Marinko Matosevic and last year's Sydney champion Jarkko Nieminen may have a say in that.

Raonic's immediate quarter includes two young talents in David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov, along with Brian Baker, Matt Ebden and Jurgen Melzer.

The final quarter is where Simon, Florian Mayer and Marcos Baghdatis are drawn, along with the likes of Santiago Giraldo, Alejandro Falla and Aussie wild card Benjamin Mitchell.

I would expect Simon to come through that, although it is worth noting that the Frenchman is 0-3 against the mercurial talents of Mayer, who should begin this season better than he ended the last, where he suffered three straight opening round losses.

This tournament is certainly Murray's for the taking, but he hasn't exactly impressed since New York, with losses to Jerzy Janowicz, Raonic, Roger Federer and twice to Novak Djokovic so I'm not sure he's a great bet at a shade of odds-on.

For me, Raonic is a better bet at a more acceptable price of around 54/1 and with points to defend from his Chennai win he should be up for it this week. Having beaten Murray from match points down in their most recent meeting in Tokyo he won't be afraid of the Scot this week.

Elsewhere, I would expect David Ferrer to land the Doha title in Rafa's absence and Chennai looks very competitive this time, with Tomas Berdych, Marin Cilic, Janko Tipsarevic and Stan Wawrinka all in with great chances.

But for me Raonic looks the one to be on out of all three tournaments in this opening week of the season.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic at 54/1

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Women's Tennis Betting: Can Vika hit the top again Down Under?

Victoria Azarenka enjoys this time of year

It's a big January for WTA world number one Victoria Azarenka as she prepares to defend her Australian Open title. Guy McCrea discusses the Belarusian's chances over the coming weeks...

Without doubt, 12 months ago in Australia is where things really took off for Victoria Azarenka. True, she had been a WTA top five fixture for some time before then - but the Belarusian had always fallen short when it mattered most.

It seemed like we had been talking for an age about Azarenka's graduation to the big time (she was ITF junior world champion back in 2005) before it finally happened for her last year.

Building off a title in Sydney, Azarenka's Australian Open romp - which culminated in a ruthless demolition job on Maria Sharapova - eventually extended into a stunning 26 match unbeaten streak to start 2012. If not at the awe-inspiring level of Novak Djokovic's 2011 tear, it was still mighty impressive and helped intimidate most opponents.

Azarenka only lost one match to a player ranked outside the top 10 all season. Unlike some recent world number ones, she was accepted as a worthy queen to sit atop the WTA throne.

Along with most of the world's top 10, Azarenka opens her 2013 campaign this week at the Brisbane International: - a venue where she won in 2009. Her past record shows that she commonly starts the year Down Under in red-hot, suffocating style.

By contrast, her main Brisbane rivals Serena Williams and Sharapova have never won a pre-Australian Open event in their careers. Indeed, Sharapova has often chosen to completely forego tournament play before Melbourne. Serena looked good in her opening Brisbane win over Varvara Lepchenko, but I'm backing Azarenka (at around 4.1n/a) to survive a stacked draw this week and again start her season with a trophy.

The same result in Melbourne? (Azarenka is trading around 5.39/2 on Betfair to defend the Australian Open) I'm not so sure.

Historically, it has certainly proven possible to repeat - the likes of Martina Hingis, Jennifer Capriati and Serena have all managed it in the past 20 years alone. But mentally, I suspect it will be extremely tough for Azarenka to constantly try to match her early 2012 achievements. She even admitted as much last month.

On top of that, everyone knows that 15-time Grand Slam singles champion Serena (2.3411/8 favourite to win in Melbourne) generally saves her very best tennis for the majors where her status looms largest over Azarenka and the rest.

Serena won all five of the pair's meetings in 2012 - although Azarenka did serve for the match in the final set of their U.S. Open final clash. Even if Serena isn't quite 100% all through this week in Brisbane, you can be sure the American will be ready to go in Melbourne as she seeks what would be a sixth Australian Open crown.

Azarenka may have dominated Sharapova on outdoor hardcourts last season - but the Russian still fancies her chances in their match-up, as shown by two wins indoors last season. You would give Azarenka the slight edge if they meet again in Melbourne, but it's not exactly a cut-and-dried call.

Add two other erratic, yet dangerous Grand Slam titlists in Li Na - now firmly into her intriguing hook-up with Justine Henin's former coach Carlos Rodriguez - and former Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova and the road to a Melbourne repeat could prove rocky for Azarenka.

Of course, it's always tough to make a definitive judgment without the draw having been made. But as it stands, I veer away from an Azarenka title defence. I do like the world number one to win her quarter of the draw, as she has made a habit of crushing opponents from outside the WTA elite.

But from there as the quality of opponent hikes, the pressure will build. So I think it best to prepare a back-to-lay strategy on Azarenka with the likes of Serena, Sharapova and Kvitova also expected to be involved at the business-end of the tournament.

Follow Guy on Twitter - @GuyMcCreaTennis