Ed Dunlop trains our strongest bet of the day
A trio of three-year-old handicappers make up today's UK SmartPlays...
We're spreading our bets around all three tracks to stage an afternoon meeting, starting with Catterick's very first race at 14:20. Favourite Magic Ice looked in need of seven furlongs when runner-up at Wolverhampton last time, so the chances of her being suited by Catterick's famously sharp five-furlong course are fairly low. Much better to go with speedily-bred current second-favourite Jofranka. Trained by David Barron, who is himself renowned for handling sprinters, Jofranka stepped up a gear on her third start last time, admittedly still looking a mite green but shaping as though capable of much better than what she's shown up to now. An opening BHA mark of 57 looks generous enough, so if she can break on terms this time Jofranka must holds good claims of getting off the mark at the first time of asking in handicaps.
We could take one of two approaches to the 16:00 at Lingfield: either chance Intimidate, who'd looked so promising prior to a flop at Doncaster on reappearance and could be very attractively priced, or take the more solid option of a win-and-place bet on Melvin The Grate. The recommendation is to go for the second option, for all the market has made Melvin The Grate somewhat shorter than we might have predicted. He's an extraordinarily well-bred colt, a brother to three smart performers in Misu Bond, Air Chief Marshal and Foxtrot Romeo, and made a promising reappearance when scoring in a small-field event at Kempton off a BHA mark of 79. Raised just 3 lb for his troubles and proven both on the surface and over the trip, Melvin The Grate looks a sure thing for the first three and, if Intimidate fails to fire again, will be hard to beat.
Our final SmartPlay probably won't make you rich, but he's very likely to make you some money if the vibes this morning are right. Singersongwriter (16:40 Nottingham) has run only once, in a Doncaster maiden last backend, when he scored in ready fashion from subsequent winner King of Kudos. Singersongwriter understandably looked a bit green that day, while the race arguably wasn't the strongest of its type, but it's still a mightily bold call by the BHA handicapper to allot a mark of 74 for such a smooth win by an inexperienced horse. The early money would suggest that Singersongwriter is ready to go after nearly six months off, and if his fitness and maturity are both where they need to be then it's difficult to see him losing.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Jofranka @ 6.25/1 in the 14:20 Catterick
Back Melvin The Grate @ 3.412/5 to win and @ 1.528/15 to place in the 16:00 Lingfield
Back Singersongwriter @ 1.824/5 in the 16:40 Nottingham
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