Can Harry Redknapp save QPR from relegation?

Can Harry Redknapp Save QPR From Relegation?

By Jack Ratcliffe Dec 21, 2012

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Having taken 16 matches to win their first game of the season, QPR have a massive task on their hands in order to avoid relegation from the Premier League. Can new manager Harry Redknapp work his magic, or will it be too late for the West Londoners?

What Does Previous Relegation History Dictate?

QPR’s poor start to the season means that this is the sixth time since the turn of the century that a team has reached the Christmas period at 10 points or under.

Only one of those sides – West Bromwich Albion – has avoided relegation, narrowly avoiding the drop in 2005. West Brom were also on 10 points at this point in 2004/05 season, but went on to reach 34 points by the season’s climax.

WBA and QPR had won and drawn the same number of games, and scored the same number of goals (15), but West Brom had a leakier defense, conceding 36 goals to QPR’s 30.

In 2011, Blackburn also had 10 points at this stage, but they had scored and won more than QPR. The side conceded a massive 38 goals, however, and conceded even more in the second half of the season, finishing 19th on 31 points – six points and seven goals from safety. The team that survived in 17th that season? QPR.

While QPR were much higher in the table before Christmas last season (16th), the side were actually just six points better off than they are in 2012, courtesy of four wins. That is significantly better then the solitary victory achieved so far in the 2012/13 season.

The worst of the six sides to be on less than 10 points by mid-December was Derby County, who had picked up just six points by this stage in 2007, and gained just five further points.

Picking Up Needed Points

It’s often stated that ‘40’ is the magic number for relegation battlers in the Premier League. Get this number, pundits say, and you can start planning for another season in top flight.

This rule-of-thumb has proved true on all but one occasion since the turn of the century – in 2002/03, West Ham’s 42 points were not enough to topple Bolton’s 44 and ensure their safety.

Investigating the issue mathematically, the average number of points for teams that have finished 17 – and therefore survived relegation – is 38.2. This suggests that if QPR hit 38 points with a good goal difference, or reach 39 points, they are more likely than not to be safe.

By looking at the performance of teams that finish 18th, we can see that their average points per season are 36.4 – way below 17th place’s 38. Therefore the ‘magic’ number could be considered 37 points – just enough points to overcome 18th.

The Redknapp Effect – Can Redknapp Save QPR?

Since firing Mark Hughes and appointing Harry Redknapp, QPR have won their first game of the season and notched up three draws, giving them six out of their 10-point tally. But can he continue this form and save QPR from relegation?

Brought in to save the club, Redknapp seems to be a go-to-man for clubs languishing in the relegation zone – Southampton in 2004, Portsmouth in 2005 and Tottenham in 2008.

Brought in at around the same time for both the Saints and Pompey as at QPR (December 8th and 7th respectively), his appointment had polarising affects on the teams. Redknapp was the nail in Southampton’s coffin, overseeing their drop from 18th to 20th in the table and averaging just 0.91 points per game (PPG).

He fared better across the road at Portsmouth, averaging 1.22 points per game – more than double the 0.66 PPG they were achieving before his appointment. He had similar success at Spurs, who were at just 0.56 PPG, which trebled to 1.582 PPG under his leadership.

Taking 37 as the number of points needed to avoid relegation, that means that Redknapp’s QPR will need to achieve a 1.32 PPG to survive. Since taking over, it is at 1.5.

If you think QPR will stay up or go down, click here to view the latest odds on Pinnacle Sport’s relegation props.

*Odds subject to change

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