One of today's SmartPlays comes from Wincanton
Following a 6.55 BSP winner yesterday, we have three more National Hunt SmartPlays today.
There's a school of thought, not a wholly inaccurate one, that says form achieved in the North is generally weaker than in the South; that isn't to say that good races in the North don't exist, rather that the strong form lines tend to stand out more. That's the philosophy that we're taking into the 14:40 at Carlisle, in which unexposed chaser Rudemeister comes boasting several pieces of sound form. From higher marks than the one he's been allotted today, Rudemeister split progressive rivals in a couple of handicap hurdles last season, while both starts over fences so far have promised more to come. Firstly, there was a maiden at Musselburgh (useful sorts Viva Colonia and Sydney Paget ultimately filled the first two places) in which he fell four out when travelling smoothly, then he folded late on having been asked to do too much too soon at Catterick last time. Rudemeister jumped superbly at Catterick and, assuming that hard race hasn't left too much of a mark, he looks very well-handicapped back in trip today.
Wincanton has a couple of races with interesting and unexposed handicappers: there's David Pipe's Royal Peak in the opener, but without the benefit of seeing how that one fares in the market throughout the day a more solid proposition is represented by If In Doubt in the 15:00. He's been handed an opening mark of 126 by the handicapper, but the nature of his win at Towcester last time suggests he could be a lot better than that. In a well-run contest that compared very favourably with other races on the card in terms of times, If In Doubt pulled clear with second-favourite Viva Steve, ultimately beating that one by an easy one and a half lengths. Admittedly, Viva Steve didn't exactly do his bit for the form next time, though the impression left on the clock by If In Doubt that day certainly shouldn't be forgotten ahead of his handicap debut.
We're back to Carlisle for SmartPlay number three, siding with one ostensibly more exposed than our other two SmartPlays. None the less, Bogside has offered more tangible signs that he's ahead of his mark than either Rudemeister or If In Doubt; he does, however, have a seemingly incurable flaw in his jumping. There was little greater proof of that than Bogside's last run at Musselburgh, when he fell at the last when holding a narrow lead over Wild Geese. He's evidently well-treated, though, even from a 4 lb higher mark today, while Carlisle's notoriously soft fences pose a much lesser threat to his uncertain jumping than Musselburgh's traditionally more tricky obstacles.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Rudemeister @ 4.3100/30 in the 14:40 Carlisle
Back If In Doubt @ 3.02/1 in the 15:00 Wincanton
Back Bogside @ 5.24/1 in the 16:50 Carlisle
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