Timeform Radio Tips: Michael can flip the Greatwood on its head

David's bets all run at Newbury

David Cleary looks towards today's Newbury card and picks out some bets.

You want open-looking, middle-grade handicaps? You've got 'em, at Newbury at least, which offers no fewer than six such contests of varying types on a seven-race card which ends with a junior bumper.

The feature event is the two-and-a-half mile chase at 15:50. Former winner Big Fella Thanks, on his way to a fourth crack at the Grand National, carries top weight, off a mark 8 lb higher than for his previous success. He has work to do, even in what isn't a particularly strong race for the grade. The Knoxs makes some appeal for a stable with a tremendous record in the race, fresh and on a fair mark on the form he would have shown but for falling on his last start, over course and distance in November. However, he's priced about right, whereas Michael Flips is probably too big at double figures. There's no doubt on his best form that Michael Flips is the best treated horse in the race, down 9 lb in the weights this season after getting bogged down on very testing ground. Admittedly, he won a Lanzarote Hurdle on heavy in his younger days, but he's long since looked more at home under today's less testing conditions. The fitting of cheekpieces for the first time in ages is also encouraging, as he ran really well in a Coral Cup the only other time he's completed in them. Garynella is an unknown quantity in British terms and shaped much better than the distances indicate on his British debut. However, the market knows all about his potential, and he's worth opposing with Michael Flips.

The preceding handicap hurdle at 15:15 is wide open, with perhaps no more than two of the thirteen that could be ruled out with confidence. Two against the field are Tango de Juilley and A Bridge Too Far. A Bridge Too Far has been given a chance by the handicapper and comes here fresh, after just a run in a jumpers' bumper this winter. He is likely to have use made of him over this trip and that may well be an advantage in a race that could lack pace. Tango de Juilley has also had just the one run this winter, shaping better than the distance beaten indicates at Ascot two weeks ago. There was enough in that effort to think there's more to come, with some respite from the BHA handicapper and a drop in trip both in his favour.   

Recommendations:
All at Newbury

Back Michael Flips @ 12.011/1 in the 15:50

Back Tango de Juilley @ 8.415/2 and A Bridge Too Far @ 22.021/1 respectively  in the 15:15