Paul Nicholls at Cheltenham: My thoughts on Dodging Bullets and Zarkandar today

Zarkandar is ready to run for his life says Paul Nicholls

Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls gives an honest assessment of his two runners on day one of the Cheltenham Festival as well as his extensive thoughts on the races they run in...

13:30 Cheltenham - Dodging Bullets

Only 12 runners, but this is a very hot Supreme, arguably stronger in depth than when our Al Ferof beat Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card in 2011, so it will take a world of winning.

My Tent Or Yours clearly sets the form standard after his Betfair Hurdle win but he now has to back that up in a faster-run race on a more undulating track, Jezki comes here aiming for his third Grade 1 win in a row, and Un Atout may not have beaten much but has done it effortlessly and is very highly-regarded. And that is not to mention the likes of Puffin Billy, River Maigue and Champagne Fever.

In an average Supreme, I think that you would expect those kind of horses to be trading at single figure prices - and the same applies to Dodging Bullets. He has an official mark of 156 after his third to Darlan and Raya Star in the Christmas Hurdle, where Champion Hurdle hopefuls Countrywide Flame and Cinders And Ashes were in behind, and that is normally a level at which you would expect to win a run-of the-mill Supreme. It is obviously potentially far from that, but I am very happy with Dodging Bullets. He hasn't really got the strong end-to-end gallop this season that he wants, but his Kempton run was very pleasing and he won in spite of the way the races panned out here twice earlier in the season.

He ran a great race when fourth in the Triumph last year - that was only his second run, coming just three weeks after his debut second in the Dovecote - and I am convinced the better the race the better he will travel and perform. Ideally, I would have preferred better ground for him but he clearly handles soft ground well - it was heavy in the Christmas Hurdle - and he is real good order at home.

Some people may think that Ruby siding with Champagne Fever is a negative but I wouldn't read anything into that. Ruby will have some difficult decisions to make this week, and probably won't get them all right. If Dodging Bullets is good enough, then Daryl is. And, anyway, he knows the horse well, having ridden him in the Triumph and plenty of times at home.

15:20 Cheltenham - Zarkandar

This is a very open Champion Hurdle, but I wouldn't swap Zarkandar for any other in the race. I know everyone thinks that trainers have to say that as a matter of course, but I genuinely believe it. The only potential negative to his chance is that this race is run on the sharper Old Course but in all other respects we go there in peak form and ready to run for our lives.

It is well-documented that he wasn't 100% right last season, despite winning the Betfair Hurdle first time out and then finishing fifth in this race. And thankfully he didn't suffer any ill effects from a very nasty tumble at Aintree. But we have really had him where we want him this season - he is a totally different horse, with no repeat of last season's coughing and the like - and his efforts on the track have really hammered that home.

We were genuinely gobsmacked when he was able to give all that weight to Prospect Wells in the Elite first time up and he showed what he was all about when seeing off Grandouet and Rock On Ruby in the International. Even though he was getting 4lb from that pair, I was suitably impressed and don't think the weight was the deciding factor that day. And everything went to plan when he won his prep race, the Kingwell back at Wincanton last month. Two wins on a sharp track!

Some people have asked me whether we would consider making the running with him today if there wasn't any pace, but I would answer that by saying two things. One, never show your hand before a race where inches could count come the winning post. You didn't see me advertising the fact that we were going to make the running with Kauto Star before he won his fourth Betfair Chase, did you? And, secondly Zarkandar is a versatile horse, and Daryl is an intelligent jockey and able to react to whatever unfolds in front of him.

The soft ground holds no fears for the horse, and we expect a big run. I am confident of that, if not of winning. It would be foolhardy going into a race of this competitive nature thinking you were a certainty. Ruby was never going to get off a Champion Hurdle winner in Hurricane Fly, and he has looked great in Ireland. And there clearly isn't much between the International horses.

I am slightly surprised to see Rock On Ruby wearing first-time blinkers here, but Harry knows what he is doing and it didn't do See More Business any harm when we put them on him for the first time in the 1999 Gold Cup. Or Michel Le Bon at Newbury recently. They both won. And funnily enough I said to Chris and Jared at the start of the season that I would consider running Zarkandar in blinkers this season if he raced lazily, and that if he did so, the time to put them on him would be first time up in the Champion. So Harry must have been listening!

But of course Zarkandar has given us no reason to even consider them. Anyway, let's just hope that Rock On Ruby runs out of his skin in them, and finishes second to Zarkandar!