La Liga Preview: Goals flourish in the Rose Garden

Leo Messi has scored in 3/4 at the Bernabeu and ten straight La Liga away games

Lionel Messi can make a major impact on a minor clasico, says Tobias Gourlay

Real Madrid v Barcelona
Saturday 15:00
Real 3.052/1 Barcelona 2.427/5 draw 3.814/5

The Big Two have bigger concerns than each other right now.

The 16-point gap between them in La Liga means the result of this game will change little. Much more rides on the results of their impending Champions League second legs.

If Jose Mourinho were to put his mind to it, Real could probably beat Barcelona for the second time in a week. As it is, he looks likely to rest key players like Xabi Alonso.

If Barcelona were in better form, they could probably make it five unbeaten at the Bernabeu. As it is, they are in a trough and it's not clear Jourdi Roura is the man to get them out of it.

The defences, at least, should be as porous as ever and both teams to score is an obvious bet - it's paid out in 12 straight clasicos - but the market knows it.

The most real contest is likely to be between Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Ronaldo might not last the full game - Real's Champions League fixture comes a week earlier than Barca's - so we'll concentrate on the li'l man. He's scored in 3/4 at the Bernabeu and 10 straight on the road. 

Recommended Bet
Back Lionel Messi To Score @ 1.758/11

Valencia v Levante
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Valencia 1.594/7 Levante 7.26/1 draw 4.216/5

Like the Big Two, Valencia are hanging on in the Champions League. They travel to PSG with a deficit to make up on Wednesday, and Ernesto Valverde will have at least half an eye on that game.

Suspensions leave Los Che short-staffed at the back for a derby they haven't won in either of its last two runnings.

The problem with opposing them is that Levante are a poor away side in bad form. Juan Ignacio Martinez's men have put a lot into a fine Europa League run and are on a winless streak of four in La Liga.

Going deeper, you might want to revert to the hosts. Valverde's three wins at the Mestalla have all come by two-goal margins, while six of Levante's seven away losses this season have been just as (un)comfortable.

Just a small stake, mind.

Recommended Bet
Back Valencia -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.77/4

Malaga v Atletico Madrid
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Malaga 3.02/1 Atletico 2.6613/8 draw 3.39/4

Atletico played in midweek and, having won just one in six on the road, are doubtable favourites.

That said, Malaga are Spain's fourth Champions League contenders and should now be thinking about their match in Portugal a week on Wednesday - the more so because the late payment on some bills means they will not be allowed in next season's competition wherever they finish in La Liga.

There's value in the goals markets, however. Nine of Malaga's last 12 at La Rosaleda (the Rose Garden, no less) have gone Over 2.5 Goals and so have four of Atletico's most recent five on the road.

Sure, Malaga's most recent three have stayed below the line, but the 1-1 draws with Celta Vigo and Real Zaragoza show they remain capable of scoring and conceding.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.26/5

Real Sociedad v Real Betis
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Sociedad 1.865/6 Betis 4.84/1 draw 3.8514/5

Sociedad have lost only once in La Liga since early November (W8-D6-L1), while Betis have lost three straight on the road without scoring.

The spanners in the works: Betis ended their drought with a 3-0 win at home to Malaga last weekend; this weekend they get main man Ruben Castro back.

And here's a thing: if you had backed every team in La Liga to win each of their last 20 away games, Betis would have given you your biggest profit.

Pepe Mel's men regularly defy these sorts of odds and we're ready to punt long.

Recommended Bet
Back Betis @ 4.84/1

Sevilla v Celta Vigo
Monday 20:30 (Live on Sky Sports Xtra)
Sevilla 1.538/15 Celta 8.07/1 draw 4.3100/30

Sevilla have won four in a row at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.

Celta are La Liga's worst travellers, losing 11/13 on the road to date.

That's a big part of why the visitors arrive in Andalusia with a new coach. 

You might remember Abel Resino losing the Atletico Madrid job after a heavy Champions League defeat to Chelsea, but we're ready to give him a 1.5-goal head-start on Monday.

Discount the losses to the Big Two and 8/9 of Celta's away defeats have been by a single goal.

Recommended Bet
Back Celta Vigo +1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.75/7