вторник, 2 апреля 2013 г.

Timeform Radio Tips: Henry to reign supreme at Exeter

Racing takes place at Exeter today.

Exeter has survived a morning inspection and that is where David Cleary heads for today's bets...

Exeter passed an unexpected morning inspection due to frost and provides the jumping action in Britain this afternoon, with large fields due to be in action on much drier ground than has been the case for much of the winter.

The handicap hurdle at 14:40 looks wide open, with quite a few potential improvers in the line-up. Lord Protector is one, though he was seen to better advantage than a few behind him at Sandown last time; the once-raced Watergate Bay is obviously another, though he has plenty of weight for the bare form of his win; Saroque and Ballinahow Star clearly have potential for further improvement but the drying ground is an unknown quantity with them. All in all, it may pay to side with a slightly more exposed one who is clearly on a good mark on his best form in Henry King. He shaped as if retaining plenty of ability after a lengthy absence in a competitive affair at Sandown in February, the ground that day plenty soft enough for him in all likelihood. Henry King won off a mark just 3 lb lower than today's as a novice and showed better form subsequently, so if he can return to that level - and Sandown suggested he could - he is sure to go close under optimum conditions.

The following handicap chase (15:10) revolves around Quarl Ego. In short, he looks to have been let in extremely lightly on the form of his chasing debut at Leicester and if he runs to the same level again he will bolt up. His BHA mark is very hard to explain. At Leicester he split two horses with marks of 125 or higher, getting 7 lb, and yet finds himself in here off just 105. The fourth horse, who ran close to form that day, was then beaten a length off 120 at Huntingdon yesterday, and that despite a poor round of jumping. A faller who would have finished behind Quarl Ego at level weights, has since won a handicap off 115. It's arguable Quarl Ego, who was sent off at 66/1 on the back of a long absence and who looked out of his depth on hurdles form, was slightly flattered that day, but it's worth taking the chance that that was not the case - he could just be going to make a much better chaser. Anyway, even if he's only as good as he was as a hurdler, he won a reasonably competitive handicap off today's mark in that sphere. The only real concern with Quarl Ego is whether this fragile sort can build on that first run but he's had five weeks to recover and must be backed to take advantage of such generous treatment. 

Timeform Radio Tips:
Both at Exeter
Back Henry King @ 12.011/1 in the 14:40
Back Quarl Ego @ 5.04/1 in the 15:10

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