Halfway leader Jason Day
It was Jason's day at Augusta yesterday where Guan Tianlang just made the cut, despite a penalty, and where Tiger Woods may yet get disqualified. Read Steve's latest update here...
11:30 - April 13, 2013
After a dramatic and controversial second day at Augusta, Australia's Ryan Day leads the US Masters by a solitary stroke.
Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back as at 11.30am.
Jason Day -6 8.415/2
Fred Couples -5 30.029/1
Marc Leishman -5 50.049/1
Brandt Snedeker -4 13.012/1
Jim Furyk -4 25.024/1
Angel Cabrera -4 30.029/1
Justin Rose -3 14.5n/a
Lee Westwood -3 17.016/1
Adam Scott -3 17.016/1
Jason Dufner -3 32.031/1
K.J Choi -3 42.041/1
David Lynn -3 130.0129/1
Tiger Woods -3 4.67/2
-2 Bar
Thankfully, Day failed to birdie either of the last two holes because had he done so, the 14-year-old Chinese amateur, Guan Tianlang, would have missed the cut and that would be a sad travesty.
For the first time since 1995, since before Guan Tianlang was even born, the PGA Tour decided to penalise someone for slow play, and they picked on him, giving him a one-stroke penalty.
I'm not for a second defending slow play, it's quite correctly considered a blight on the game but as someone so succinctly tweeted yesterday, "after watching grown adults on Tour playing like snails, I find this appalling." And that's pretty much how I see it.
By all accounts he's painfully slow but so are Keegan Bradley, Kevin Na and of course, Mr. Slow-Play himself, Ben Crane, but they've not been punished. Thank heavens he made the cut because had he not it would have been tricky for officials. As is the Tiger Woods drop on 15...
If you missed it last night, Tiger Woods was extremely unlucky on the par 5 15th hole when his third shot clattered into the pin and ricocheted into the water. He then took a drop and made a six but afterwards he claimed to have dropped it two yards further back and that looks to have been an illegal drop. This piece here explains it eloquently but it seems, at the time of writing, that there's a real danger that Wood may yet be disqualified.
Onto my bets and it was a very disappointing day. I really fancied Matt Kuchar to relish the tough test and hang around all week but after birdying the second hole to get to within one of the lead and having been matched at just 9.28/1, he struggled badly and ended the day on -1.
I suspect Phil Mickelson may have panicked and pressed too soon when he saw in-play selection, Dustin Johnson, streaking off ahead. He was nicely poised on one under-par for the round and two-under for the event after eight holes but he went into meltdown after that. And so did Johnson!
My pre-event picks were struggling but Dustin Johnson appeared to be taking the event by the scruff. Having started slowly, with three straight fives, D.J looked in complete control when he birdied the par 5 13th to get to -7 but he came home in an ambulance - dropping six shots in the last five holes!
Best of mine now is K.J Choi on -3 so I'm not in the best of positions and there was more agony in-running too. It's a congested, quality-rich, hard-to-call affair and I didn't place a bet at all last night in-running but I did come close...
On three-under-par with a hole to play, I thought Brandt Snedeker looked a very fair price at 28.027/1 but I decided to wait and see how he played the final hole first. Unfortunately, we didn't see the drive, or the approach shot, and by the time we got to see him stroke his tiny birdie putt in the hole, the price had well and truly gone.
Having missed the price on Sneds, I'm just leaving things alone for now, though I don't rate him as a bad price now at 13.012/1, far from it.
The stats tell us that we need to concentrate on the small pack at the top, as Charl Schwartzel, two years ago, is the only player to win the event having been outside of the top-five at halfway since 1998, but can it really be that simple?
Provided he doesn't get slung out, Woods is an obvious threat and so too, according to the market, is Rory McIlroy. He sits alongside the likes Sergio Garcia and Schwartzel on -2 and trades at just 13.012/1.
That looks very short to me and if I had to have a bet it would be on Snedeker a the same price but I'm going to hang on for now and see what today brings, it's just too hard to call. Sometimes the right thing to do is nothing and this feels like one such occasion.
11:50 - April 12, 2013
There was a general consensus before the start of this year's US Masters that we could be in for an absolute cracker and after day one, it looks as though we are. It looked an extremely open affair before the off and still does now.
Here's the first round leaderboard
Sergio Garcia -6
Marc Leishman -6
Dustin Johnson -5
Matt Kuchar -4
Rickie Fowler -4
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -4
Trevor Immelman -4
Freddie Couples -4
David Lynn -4
Jim Furyk -3
Zach Johnson -3
Adam Scott -3
-2 Bar
If recent history is anything to go by, the odds are that the winner will be one of the players already in the top-12, listed above, or either Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson.
As detailed in the preview, since 1998, Woods and Mickelson are the only players to win the US Masters having finished outside the top-ten after day one, so it may well pay to concentrate on the early pace-setters.
Those stats would suggest you'd have to give Marc Leishman and Sergio Garcia a big chance but round one leaders don't have a great record - leading brings its own unique pressure. Trevor Immelman was tied for the lead in 2008 before he went on to win but you have to go right back to Ben Crenshaw in 1984 to find the previous round one leader to go on and win.
I've backed Dustin Johnson, who sits on his own in third on -5, modestly at 9.89/1, as I can see him making a big move early on today.
There were rumblings from a number of players yesterday about the slow pace of the greens, especially Mickelson, and that probably in part explains the lofty positions on the leaderboard of a number of players. Garcia and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, for example, are both players I wouldn't want to be with on fast sloping greens.
With overnight rain forecast, we might see some aggressive low-scoring from the early starters today and aggressive certainly describes Dustin Johnson. After booming a drive over the tall trees and across the dogleg on the par 5 13th yesterday, he hit a nine iron onto the green and knocked in the eagle putt!
He's always looked made for Augusta but until yesterday he hadn't showed it. The softer greens may have contributed slightly to his improvement but he's a player of immense talent who arguably should have won a major already and I felt I had to get him onside.
In addition to my wager on D.J, I've also backed past champions, Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson and I've had a very small sentimental bet on Ernie Els, who perhaps should have won a Green Jacket before now.
I can't moan about the performance of my pre-event picks, with four of the five finishing the day under-par. Bubba Watson three-putted three times and appears to have joined the long list of defending champs to struggle but the others have fared well enough despite all four dropping shots over the final few holes.
I'm least confident about K.J. Choi (-2) and Luke Donald (-1) and I'm a little wary about Lefty (-1). After a slow start, he burst into life on the back-nine yesterday but dropped a shot on the 17th and he might just get over-aggressive too soon today. He's talking up his chance and he's sounding confident but that isn't always a precursor to a good performance will Phil. There is very definitely a danger that he could push too hard too early.
Obviously, the one I'm most happy with is Matt Kuchar, who could have fared even better. He was on -5 and in position A on the par 5 15th fairway yesterday but failed to make birdie there before bogeying 16. Regardless of the finish though, he looked in fine form and I'll be disappointed if he isn't in the shake-up come Sunday.
It was a great first day yesterday with a number of highlights. Exciting American prospect, Rickie Fowler, hit two double bogeys and just 21 putts during his four under-par 68 and England's David Lynn surprised plenty with his great start on debut. He too shot 68.
Former winners and now Champions Tour players, Bernard Langer and Freddie Couples rolled back the years to break par and at the other end of the scale, 14 year-old amateur, Guan Tianlang, from China created arguably the biggest story of the day. He confounded almost everyone by shooting a remarkable one over-par 73 and for me, that was the round of the day. Could he even make the cut?
Tiger Woods had threatened to stamp his authority on the event and was matched at just 3.4012/5 but three-putted the 14th hole to make bogey before paring the last four holes and Rory McIlroy started brightly but finished woefully. He flittered away far too many shots with the putter and two over-par on the back-nine was quite frankly a dreadful effort.
The greens are bound to speed-up considerably over the weekend and that will favour those with plenty of experience around here so I may well look to get Tiger onside today too. He looks a shade short at present at just 5.39/2 but I'll have my eye on him for sure.
Adam Scott is the only other player I've come close to backing and I see Paul Krishnamurty has gotten him onside. His Augusta record is superb, he's started well enough, and he's a reasonable price at 17.016/1 but I'm going to hang fire on him for now too.
The Punter's Pre-Event Picks
Phil Mickelson @ 15.5n/a
Matt Kuchar @ 42.041/1
Luke Donald @ 44.043/1
Bubba Watson @ 46.045/1
K.J Choi @ 160.0159/1
In-Play Bets
D. Johnson @ 9.89/1
T. Immelman @ 95.094/1
Z. Johnson @ 95.094/1
E. Els @ 170.0169/1
I'll be back in the morning with a look at the state of play at halfway.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
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