вторник, 23 апреля 2013 г.

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can Peter Uihlein kick-on or will it be all change again in Spain on day three?

Halfway leader in Spain and US trendsetter, Peter Uihlein

Steve's taking it easy on both sides of the Atlantic but he's cheering on an American trendsetter to give the European Tour a much-needed boost. Read his halfway thoughts here...

Saturday April 20 - 11:00
They're off and running in round three of the Open de Espana and we have a very congested and tricky looking leaderboard.

Former US Amateur champion, Peter Uihlein, leads on -6, with Rikard Karlberg, Felipe Aguilar and Raphael Jacquelin all a shot back on -5. A group of five, including one of my pre-event picks, Andrea Harto, sit on -4 and what we have is a really tough event to call.

I really hope Uihlein wins an event or two in Europe as it may encourage more of his countrymen to take the same very wise career route. Anyone than wins the US Amateur, clearly has quality, just look at the list of winners - Tiger Woods (three times!), Phil Mickelson and Justin Leonard to name but three, but they don't all kick-on and make it in the professional ranks at the highest level.

Young players from Europe and South Africa (in particular in recent years) have honed their trade playing all over the world on the European Tour before going on to win majors. Travelling the globe, gaining all this invaluable experience looks a shrewd move by Uihlein and I hope he gets rewarded.

American golfers are famous for their inability to travel outside of the States but Uihlein could be the man to change all that. If he wins a major in ten years time and credits his time on the European Tour as the reason for his success, we could see a huge shift in the way the European Tour is viewed stateside, so bets apart, I'll be cheering on Peter!

This is just too tough to call right now and as I have Harto in-the-mix, I'm going to see what today brings now, though I have thrown a few speculative pounds at Kenneth Ferrie at ludicrously big prices this morning.

The event is live on Sky at 12.30pm.

With 17 players yet to finish off round two of the RBC Heritage, thanks to a late weather delay, we haven't quite reached the halfway stage in South Carolina.

A trio of players, Kevin Streelman, Charley Hoffman and Steve Lebrun lead on -6, with Luke Donald and Bill Hass lurking menacingly on -5. This one looks every bit as tough as the Open de Espana and given how poorly my in-play bets have fared so far this week I'm leaving this one well alone for now too.

Of the three bets struck after day one - Simon Wakefield missed the cut in Spain, Carl Pettersson plummeted down the leaderboard in South Carolina and Johnson Wagner merely shot level par, so waiting a while makes sense.

Friday April 19 - 10:00

So much for weather forecasts eh? I stressed in my preview ahead of the Open de Espana the importance of keeping a check on the weather as it could be that one side of the draw gets a huge advantage, and as the start of the RBC Heritage drew nearer it looked like Thursday's early starters would have a big advantage there too.

Well unfortunately, or thanksfully depending on how you played it, there was hardly any advantage whatsoever. In Spain the morning starters averaged 73.59 for the round, while the afternoon starters averaged half a shot worse at 74.1. But Stateside it was much closer - the morning starters averaged 71.67 while it was 71.63 for the afternoon starters.

The perils of betting on early weather forecasts strike again, but that's golf betting, you just have to take it on the chin, re-assess the situation, and move on.

It's still too early to write any of my pre-event picks off in Spain. Sitting between three and seven shots off the lead currently absolutely any one of them could make a move today so I'm still hopeful.

I have had one in-running bet however on Simon Wakefield at 55.054/1. The Englishman is two off the lead currently and out early today. I'd looked at him before the off as he'd found an improvement in form in Morocco when he finished top-15, and he's a great links player so fingers crossed he can make a move up the leaderboard today.

I also flirted with backing Robert-Jan Derksen and I might yet regret not getting him on side. One observation from yesterday morning was that I thought this venue reminded me of Kennemer, home of the KLM Open for a few years where Derksen has played well previously, so maybe no surprise to see the Dutchman doing well here.

Over in South Carolina the best of my pre-event selections is Ted Potter Jr who is three off the lead on -3, and I also have a number of players under par, and with the lead at just -6 you can't rule anyone out on par or better at this early stage.

But I can't help but feel I should be in a much better position. Matt Every for example played the front nine in -4, but then decided to throw in a bogey, and double and a triple on the back nine prompting myself to consider a few doubles and triples of my own. Brian Gay, Ben Crane, and Tommy Gainey all finished poorly too, dropping shots late on.

And the biggest disappoitment was undoubtedly Zach Johnson who I fancied quite strongly this week. He started with two birdies, but then had a disappointing day with the putter and eventually finished +1.

But if poor finishes had me bleeding, then it was a good start from Charlie Hoffman that rubbed salt into the wound. I backed the Hoff pre-tournament just a few weeks ago on his last start in Texas but decided to dismiss him this week. I'll keep an eye on him over the weekend.

I really didn't envisage backing anyone so soon in this one but defending champion Carl Pettersson at 50.049/1 was just too big. He hasn't been in great form and stated slowly yesterday but finished in fine style - birdying five of his last eight holes after being +2 through 10 holes (started on the 9th).

When I took 50's he was no bigger than 33's on the high street, so the price was definitely wrong. Now all he needs to do is win!

And this morning I've added Johnson Wagner @ 90.089/1. He ticked all the boxes except form, two of his three wins on tracks highligted in the preview - at the Sony and the Mayakoba.

It was no surprise to me to see last week's 54-hole joint leader Brandt Snedeker (who was pre-event favourite this week) struggle on Thursday. He's been off for a while and must have put in a huge effort both physically and mentally at Augusta. I didn't fancy him at all this week.

But by the same token, huge credit to Mark Leishman and Jason Day who were also in contention all week at the Masters. They are just two off the lead currently, and I see in Spain that both Gonzalo Fdez-Castano and Sergio Garcia - who were on the fringes of contention last week also - are bang in contention again.

I'll be back tomorrow for another update.

Open de Espana pre-event Selections:
Alvaro Quiros @ 80.079/1
Ricardo Santos @ 90.089/1
Michael Hoey @ 130.0129/1
Andres Harto @ 200.0199/1
Mikael Lundberg @ 400.0399/1

In-Play Bets:
Simon Wakefield @ 55.054/1
Kenneth Ferrie at an average of 380.0379/1

RBC Heritage pre-event Selections:
Zach Johnson @ 50.049/1
Ernie Els @ 70.069/1
Brian Gay @ 75.074/1
Ben Crane @ 80.079/1
Michael Thompson @ 95.094/1
Matt Every @ 240.0239/1
Rory Sabbatini @ 250.0249/1
Scott Brown @ 280.0279/1
Ted Potter Jr @ 320.0319/1
Tommy Gainey @ 330.0329/1

In-Play Bets
Johnson Wagner @ 90.089/1
Carl Pettersson @ 50.049/1

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