Simon Rowlands had his stopwatch handy at Kempton.
Simon Rowlands analyses the sectionals from Monday's meeting on the all-weather at Kempton Park...
Both the potential and the limitations of sectionals taken by hand can be illustrated by the Kempton meeting on Monday April 22. On the one hand, sectionals taken for the leaders and engineered for individual runners at the 3f marker identify the general run of the races and flag up a number of interesting performances. On the other, the unavoidable absence of sectionals for every horse at every furlong almost certainly results in some important information being missed.
Still, for as long as British Racing prefers to invest in projects other than sectional timing, even diehard sectionalists will have to make do with living in a state of semi-ignorance.
The most obvious piece of missing information is that for (the appropriately-named) Secret Talent in the 7f maiden. The last 3f sectional shows that the race turned into a sprint, but it does not capture the fact that the winner quickened from the front in tremendous style something like a furlong AFTER the sectional (and yet he won by 7 lengths and the same).
The mark-up based on last 3f sectional is modest in view of the overall race time, but a very rough estimate of 21.7 sec for the last 2f for the winner would result in a sectional rating of 105, not 79. The likelihood is that Secret Talent is a decidedly useful performer, and that he will rate well into the 100s. But there is a large degree of educated guesswork involved in that from a sectional point of view.
Some observers will tell you that Bright Strike did well to win the 7f handicap "against the pace bias that had been evident throughout the afternoon". This is nonsense and reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of the subject. Both pace and position can be modified on a by-race basis and therefore pace and position analysis needs to be conducted on a by-race basis. The only enduring pace bias is that the overall time of an individual running in a non-efficient way will be compromised.
Bright Strike did well to come from a bit off the pace specific to the race he was running in and deserves to be rated in the region of 5 lb more superior to the placed horses than implied by the bare result. Fourth-placed Excuse To Linger made late headway also and can be rated third-best.
Shahrazad, Order of Service, Pether's Moon and King Olav were all winners who were leading turning in. In each case, at least one of their rivals did better than they did in time terms from the sectional, but that is not to say any of them was clearly flattered.
Black Truffle (59 sectional rating) comes out best on sectionals in the opener, but only just ahead of Shahrazad in a race run in a decent overall time (given the abilities of the horses concerned); the same can be said of Shearian (72 sectional rating) in Order of Service's race; Pether's Moon comes out best in his race, with the first two more superior to their rivals than the bare result; Mount Abora (67 sectional rating) might have finished closer to King Olav set less to do, but the eased winner won well enough (and in a reasonable enough time) to think that he was comfortably best on the day in any case.
Foxhaven came from second at the sectional in the first division of the 11f handicap and comes out scarcely better than second or third on sectionals in what was a tactical affair. Midnight Feast came from a few lengths back to take the concluding 7f handicap, with South Cape (66 sectional rating) also worthy of marking up from the bare result. Runner-up Homeward Strut (66 sectional rating) and fourth-placed Mishrif (61 sectional rating) looked to have been slightly favoured by the run of the race.
To follow: Bright Strike
To oppose: Foxhaven, Homeward Strut
Punchestown Race Cards only 2 at timeform.com!
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