Paul Nicholls: The verdict on my Thursday runners at Aintree

Can Gwanako land the Fox Hunters?

It's the first day of Aintree's Grand National meeting and Paul has a big team out with runners in every race and we've got his exclusive views on all those horses.... 

14:00, Aintree
Irish Saint
After getting him from France, we always thought of him as primarily as a chaser for next season, so the ability that he has shown in his three starts over hurdles has surprised us a fair bit. Won really well at Kempton on his debut for us, so we stepped him up in class on Trials Day, and he showed improved form to finish second to Rolling Star in very testing ground at Cheltenham. He got back on the winning trail when beating Triumph fifth Vasco Du Ronceray in the Adonis on good ground at Kempton last time, but he got a bit behind that day before getting on top close home, and I don't think you saw him at his best there. We purposely sidestepped the Festival for this and so he comes here a fresh horse, and is in real good order at home. I think he will go well.

14:30, Aintree
Silviniaco Conti
I know that he is a short-priced favourite for this - even odds-on in places - but I personally would advise a degree of caution to anyone tempted to back him at those kind of prices. Yes, on the overall balance of his form you would expect him to win this - and clearly Ruby had yet to make his move when he fell three out in the Gold Cup, so he didn't have a hard race as such.

But you never know what races at Cheltenham have taken out of horses until you get them back on the track, and it is doubly a concern when they have fallen too. So, you won't hear me saying he is a certainty here. But what I can tell you is that he looks the best horse in the race on all the available evidence, he will like the ground - it will probably be the same as when he beat Champion Court in the novice chase here last season, after missing Cheltenham - and looks great at the moment. He was a little bit flat after Cheltenham, as you would expect, but in fact he now looks better in his coat than he did before Cheltenham and his recent work has pleased me. If he comes here in the same form as he has been in all season, then he is clearly the one to beat. But, as every trainer will tell you, there is always a doubt in the back of your mind with Cheltenham horses coming to Aintree.

15:05, Aintree
Zarkandar and Prospect Wells
I revealed here on Tuesday morning that he wears blinkers for the first time today - actually, the first time over hurdles, as he wore them on all three of his Flat starts in France - and I hope that they can bring about some improvement. They seemed to wake him up on Tuesday, and when we worked him yesterday morning without them, he did seem sharper. In fact, he was mad fresh and Trudi, who rides him each day, had a big smile on her face. Obviously, he is unproven over this trip - he fell in this race last year - but you would have to think that it will suit him, and I imagine that we will be trying him over 3m next season. It is clearly a very hot race, with very little between many of these on form and The New One really impressed me at Cheltenham, but I would like to think that we go into the race with a really good chance.

And don't rule out Prospect Wells running into a place. Yes, he has a lot to find on the book, but he comes here a fresh horse after missing Cheltenham, will like the ground and won really well in the National Spirit at Fontwell. He isn't totally without chances.

15:40, Aintree
Gwanako and Rebel Du Maquis
I love this race and have two fair chances of winning it. Gwanako won the Topham as a 5yo in 2008 but his form figures over the Aintree fences since then are UFF, including when falling when in with every chance in this race last season. But don't let those form figures totally mislead you, as he is normally a very sound jumper, and those mistakes were unfortunate, silly little falls. And he comes here in good form after two Sandown wins under Jody Sole. You would have to think that he has a lot going for him.

Rebel Du Maquis has the services of Champion Point-To-Point rider Will Biddick and he will like the drying ground - it was probably too testing for him when he ran what I would call a satisfactory race at Taunton last time. He has had a lot of problems and is not the horse he was - in fact, his handicap mark flatters him as he was beaten by a 111-rated horse at Taunton last time, so I'd ignore that - but what I will say is that this is the first time in a long while that he races in the right company, over the right trip on the right ground. Let's hope he can put his best foot forward here, but whatever happens I think next year he will be a good schoolmaster for Megan to ride.  The horse to beat here could actually be the one trained by my mother-in-law, for myself and a few others!! Bold Addition beat Silverburn nicely at Warwick last time and in fact maybe those two horses are the two to beat. I trained the runner-up to win a couple of Grade 1s early in his career and I am sure Evan will have targeted this race for him all season.

16:15, Aintree
Toubab and Rebel Rebellion
Toubab is a different horse on good ground, so he will relish the drying conditions here. But, even though he finished fourth in a Swinton, I am not convinced that he will be suited by the hurly-burly of an 18-runner field. He may be best bossing small fields, and I think he will need a career-best to win this. I don't want to sound too downbeat about him, however - he was back to form at Doncaster last time, ran well behind Sprinter Sacre at this meeting last year, and is fresh and well, so let's see. He is up 5lb from Doncaster though, and I think Rebel Rebellion could possibly be the better handicapped of the pair. He has been running pretty well in testing conditions this season, winning nicely at Sandown last time, but I think he is better on better ground and 2m on good ground round here could be ideal for him. I won this race with a novice last season in Edgardo Sol and I think Rebel Rebellion has a decent chance off 140 with conditions to suit.

16:50, Aintree
Fago
This horse got us excited after winning on his debut for us at Newbury. But then he fell when looking set to score at Warwick, and then ran very flat at Sandown last time. So we bypassed the Festival, and have tried to freshen him up for this race. But he has been on the go since winning in France back in September, and I suspect that you will only see the horse at his best next season. But he is a really good prospect, make no mistake, and I have been much happier with him recently. I viewed him as a two-miler earlier in the season but he did win over 2m6f in France, so I think 2m4f on good ground should be fine. The race has cut up a bit, so we take our chance. 

17:25, Aintree
Easter Day and Wilton Milan
I won this race with a novice in Forest Pennant in 2008. I am not sure whether my two runners this year are as well handicapped but Easter Day has done nothing wrong this season, and showed the benefit of the breathing operation we gave him after his Newbury second when winning at Huntingdon last time. I suppose a mark of 140 is fair enough considering what he has achieved, nothing more, but he stays really well and let's hope the step up in trip brings about more improvement. He has obviously done all his racing on soft ground this season, but good ground should be fine.

Wilton Milan is similarly lightly-raced and unexposed - so inexperience could be a negative for both of my runners in this 22-runner race - but he is certainly going the right away too and won nicely at Southwell last time. But I don't think a mark of 138 for him is overly-generous at this stage of his career. I will be quite happy to be proven wrong though!