IPL Betting: It's Mumbai's time

Ponting will take charge of Mumbai

Ed Hawkins, who unearthed last year's IPL outright winner, casts his eye over the odds, including the top-bat and top-bowler markets

The sixth edition of the Indian Premier League is not for the fainthearted gambler. There will be inexplicable results, the form of individual teams will fluctuate wildly and whatever is learned from the group stage can be forgotten.

This has always been the case, however, which is probably why it is such a great ride. It is not for the purist, either cricket fan or bettor, because it breaks all the rules: the cheerleaders, the ill-fated time outs and blaring music upset the traditionalists; the fact that no punter really knows what the hell is going on.

As ever it is not easy to find a winner. However, this column has a pretty decent record. We picked the chapions in the inaugural tournament in 2008 (Rajasthan) and were rewarded last year with Kolkata's success.

We are looking for inspirational leadership, at least three blitzers in the batting line-up, a stellar all-rounder, wily spinner and an expert death bowler. Each winner of the IPL has filled this criteria comfortably, most notably Chennai, of course with their double-winning run from 2010 under MS Dhoni.

Chennai (59.3 percentage of matches won) and Kolkata (50.6%) are the best fits once again for this recipe and are 5.24/1 favourites and 6.86/1 respectively. Chennai, bizarrely, will also benefit from no Sri Lanka players being allowed to play in the state following political interference.

The second favourites are Bangalore (50.6%) at 6.205/1. In terms of batting talent (Chris Gayle, Tillakaratne Dilshan, AB De Villiers) they have got the lot. But it has not been enough before. We are unsure about the death bowling with RP Singh and Zaheer Khan enjoying veteran status.

The best value could lie with Mumbai (56.5%) and Delhi (52.7%). They are the sleeping giants of IPL considering they have never won. Indeed, they continually disappoint. Often they look superb in the group stage but fall away badly. Delhi won the points table last year and then became the fourth-straight side to fritter away such a hold. Hence why we can scrub form from that section.

Mumbai will be captained by Ricky Ponting. Inspirational leader, check. The runs will come from Sachin Tendulkar and Rohit Sharma - Nos 3 and 4 on the all-time IPL run lists - while Pragyan Ojha spins it, Kieron Pollard does the lot and Lasith Malinga skewers batsmen with the ball.

At 6.611/2 you are guaranteed a good run for your money it would seem as the Indians have three times made the knockouts stages in the last three years. Ponting, who has brought five Australians with him, could well add that missing steel.

Delhi are 7.06/1. It is clear they have the nous to win Twenty20 matches otherwise they would not have done so well last year. They lack bottle, though. This could be improved by signing Jeremy Snape as performance coach. Snape is something of a magician and gave South Africa the confidence to take top spot in the Test rankings. It is small details like this which can make a difference.

In Mahela Jaywardene they have a genial leader and there is batting prowess in Virender Sehwag and David Warner. Kevin Pietersen will be a big miss, however.

Of the bigger priced teams Hyderabad, replacing the Deccan Chargers franchise, look the best bet. They are rags at 22.021/1 but they have a balance which could see them trade at single figures. Kumar Sangakkara, Shikhar Dhawan (when fit), JP Duminy, Amit Mishra, Thisara Perera and Dale Steyn are their key players. They have little else but they should not be as big.

As usual we like Rajasthan (52%), also at 22.021/1. Rahul Dravid is a great man and could have them in contention with a squad which lacks develop but has some gems. Pune (27.5) are shy on batsmen and King's XI (48.6), under Adam Gilchrist, will probably finish bottom .

Recommended bet
Mumbai Indians at 6.611/2
Back-to-lay Hyderabad at 22.021/1

Top batsman
Gayle is as short as 4.47/2 here. He is looking for a third-straight No 1 finish but Ajinkya Rahane, at around 30.029/1, is the man to follow. He will open for Rajasthan and made the top four last time. Suresh Raina and Sachin Tendulkar look big at 30.029/1 and 36.035/1 respectively.

Recommended bet
A Rahane at 30.029/1

Top wicket-taker
Sunil Narine, the top wicket-taker last season, is available for the whole tournament with KKR. He is also the leading wicket-taker in internationals over the last 12 months. He is a bit too skinny at 5.04/1 when you consider Morne Morkel, who topped the IPl charts in 2012, is 14.5n/a. Ashok Dinda, the Pune pacer, is a coming force and is worth following at around 28.027/1.

Recommended bet
A Dinda at 28.027/1