вторник, 23 апреля 2013 г.

In-Running Week: Backing Lantern in-play is a bright move

Richard Hannon's Sky Lantern often travels well

Neil Munro returns with in-running week, bringing you the latest horses to have caught his eye for trading purposes...

'He's a lazy bugger, all he does is eat and sleep'. I never thought I would have the need to quote the better half in my column but I regularly hear her telling her friends that. Coincidently Richard Hannon said the same statement about Olympic Glory after his win in the Greenham Stakes. He did go on to say that 'he'll never win a race by too far' and that is something Mrs In-Running will never need to say, unless it is a race to the bar!

So let us look at Olympic Glory and a couple of other decent sorts (a term I use for Mrs IR but apparently it is not respectful!!!!) that the powerful Hannon yard have in their armoury.

Horses on the Database:

Olympic Glory - Richard Hannon has some lovely three-year-olds and because the same owner has Toronado for the English Guineas it is likely that Olympic Glory will go for the French 2000. He showed last year at Goodwood that he has a turn of foot when he gets in the clear and on his seasonal appearance this season in the Greenham at Newbury Richard Hughes was having to work away on him from quite far out before staying on gamely.

With this running style, and the comment that Richard Hannon said above about him never being likely to win a race by far, I think he does become an interesting horse to play on in the run. At Newbury Olympic Glory traded 22.0 in the run having gone off a BSP of 1.79 and last season at Goodwood he hit 400 in the run having gone off 4.12 BSP. Of his four UK runs, he has traded at least double BSP or bigger on three occasions.

Back Olympic Glory in the run at double BSP and then put up a further small offer at 10 times the BSP. I would then put up an offer to lay at around evens for at least your stake, if not a little more, as connections try to deliver him late on the line.

Toronado - As mentioned above, Toronado's target is the English 2000 Guineas, his price for the first classic slashed on the back of an impressive performance in the Craven Stakes. He has now won all four outings, with three of the victories coming when taking charge from the front and the other one showing he can handle being held up if necessary. Connections felt Toronado exhibited a turn of foot at Newmarket not once, but twice and for me he proved that he could steal the Guineas by dictating the race and taking full control in the dip. I realise that in the Guineas he is more likely to be challenged for the lead but he has shown enough pace previously to take control.

Back Toronado in the 2000 Guineas (and subsequent runs) pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at quarter the matched price in the run. I am going to leave it at that but by all means put up an odds-on lay to green up your book on both sides.

Sky Lantern - The three-year-old filly lit up a couple of races last season including the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh in September. She proved that the reputation she had built up was not just hot air when finishing second on her seasonal reappearance in the Nell Gwyn Stakes behind the very impressive Hot Snap. The daughter of Red Clubs catches the eye not only for her strong travelling style of racing but also because she is a grey. I know this is a point that could be laughed at (that would be a first, me writing something that someone can laugh at) but sometimes greys do catch the eye of the more nave in-running players. Sky Lantern has traded at 1.80, 1.20 and 1.33 for her three British racecourse defeats so that gives us hope of creating a nice trading position.

Back Sky Lantern in the 1000 Guineas (and subsequent runs) at BSP and then lay out your stake at quarter the matched price in the run. Then put up some odds-on offers to create a green book. For the 1000 Guineas I will be looking to have the field winning the majority.   

Something for the weekend

The wonderful mixed card at Sandown that signals the end of the National Hunt season is upon us this weekend and having obtained tickets to attend I am gutted that I have to be in Dublin that weekend. And I am not even going to get to Punchestown.

Mr Moss will be very interesting for the B365 Gold Cup if the ground stays at good, good to soft in places. Evan Williams eight year old has good form on going described by Timeform as good to soft, with two wins and a place from six efforts, but has yet to win on good ground despite running well on all three occassions. This is backed up by the fact that he traded at 2.22, 1.01 and 1.10 in the run for those three defeats so he should be a serious player for back-to-lay tactics with some low lay offers. He is quirky and proved this in defeat last time when taking a keen hold early, then lost his place before emerging as a major player at the last. But then when he got upside the eventual winner he didn't want the battle. 

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