Heineken Cup: Handicap bets the way to go at Clermont and Saracens

Clermont entertain Montpellier this weekend

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood is excited ahead of the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup and looks to the handicap markets for some real value in Saturday's games...

Clermont v Montpellier

Kicking off this weekend's Heineken Cup games is an all-French affair between superteam Clermont and visitors Montpellier. These French club rugby matches tend to be brutal affairs, and although Montpellier are big underdogs and rightly so, they're a physically strong side with some stand out players in the shape of captain Fulgence Ouedraogo and of course the great Georgian powerhouse Mamuka 'Gorgodzilla' Gorgodze, a man that, if he was Australian or South African, would arguably make a World XV side.

But Clermont are clearly the team to beat here, they've not lost at home for over 50 games and it's easy to see why; their home turf is a real cauldron, and when 18,000 rugby fans are packed into it, it can be a very intimidating place indeed. Montpellier will have to be at the very top of their game to even have a chance. What's more, look at the individuals Vern Cotter has as his disposal: Morgan Parra, Wesley Fofana, Aurelien Rougerie and Napolioni Nalaga to name just a few. These are match-winning players, and include the top points scorer (Parra) and try scorer (Nalaga).

All that said, there's a bit of edginess that comes along with having such a good home record and it can stop them playing really fluid rugby. When the pressure's on, they might find it difficult with everyone thinking it a foregone conclusion that they'll get the win.

I actually think Montpellier can run them close, and for that reason I'm going to back a tough Montpellier team in the handicap market. 1.84/5 looks an attractive bet for them with a +9.5pts handicap.

Saracens v Ulster

If this game was taking place before Christmas, I'd have to fancy last year's finalists Ulster to win it, and win it pretty handily. The Irishmen were in great form, starting the season with 13 wins in a row. Their record away from home in the Heineken Cup over the past two seasons has been exceptional and, most tellingly, they had next to no injury problems.
 
Fast forward a few months and The Ulstermen are without key players due to injuries, and as a result will be relying heavily on inspirational captain Johann Muller. Muller is a natural leader; big in set pieces and happy to do the dirty work so the rest of his team can play. He'll bear a lot of the responsibility against a strong Saracens side who have saved their best rugby of the season for this competition.

This is another game that looks like a narrow home win to me, and Saracens' major issue is that they don't really tend to batter teams. Mark McCall's men tend to accumulate points slowly but surely, notching penalties and creeping away from the opposition before closing out the win. If they can stay disciplined, they can do the same to a visiting side who are also without effective winger Tommy Bowe.

1.4740/85 is the best price you'll get on a home side in the Heineken Cup this weekend, but I like the look of another handicap bet. Back Ulster with a 4.5pts boost at 1.855/6 and then sit back and bite your nails. I can see this one going close.

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