Grand National Switcher:
Ruby Walsh is among the best over the National fences
Using their jockey ratings, Timeform reveal which riders cope best with the unique demands of Aintree's world-famous National course.
The Grand National is unquestionably the ultimate test of horse and rider. In isolation, the average performance against expectation over National fences is 8 lb lower than the mean of all other British racing circuits. Just as previous experience of the National course counts for plenty for a horse, the same goes for jockeys, and therefore we've adapted our unique rider ratings - based on, amongst other considerations, performance +/- of their mounts by Timeform measurement - to analyse and rank active riders specific to the distinctive National course.
No prizes for guessing who's top of the table. Ruby Walsh's record in the Grand National is second to none, including two wins, and only once failing to complete in 10 attempts. When extended to all races over National fences, his CV looks better still: five wins and 13 top-five finishes from just 23 rides, which, given an average field size of 33, is little short of remarkable. The 2013 National favourite has, by our reckoning, the best jockey for the course, so the omens are good for On His Own.
Ruby isn't quite out on his own in the jockey ratings, though, and there is, if not a prize, then some kudos for guessing who's breathing down his neck for the top spot. More used to a jeering than a cheering, it's Sam Waley-Cohen, whose Aintree stats are the envy of most professional riders.
Seven of his 13 qualifying rides have admittedly come in the Fox Hunters', but disregarding that event Waley-Cohen still ranks as highly as third. He finished second in the National itself in 2011, aboard Oscar Time, though even Waley-Cohen's Aintree powers won't be enough to get the pair into a similar placing this year given the horse's slide in the meantime.
If sample sizes weren't statistically important, another amateur, Katie Walsh, Ruby's sister, would have a sky-high rating based on her only qualifying ride, a close third last year, and, unlike Oscar Time, Seabass looks ready and able to run at least as well this time, representing Father Ted.
Of the 'old-timers', Tony McCoy and Richard Johnson, who've had 34 rides apiece over the National fences, are both fairly neutral on the rating and impact value scales, but McCoy has three wins to Johnson's one, that in the Topham Chase, while he's yet to hit the bullseye in 16 Grand National attempts.
At the other end of the experience spectrum is a jockey whose only previous taste of the National course lasted precisely five fences, the point at which Bryan Cooper was brought down aboard Rare Bob last year. That has been one of the few blips in an otherwise rocketing career for Cooper, who, as previously publicised, is near the top of Timeform's wider jockey ratings. So good is Cooper, highlighted at the Cheltenham Festival, that his relative inexperience of Aintree needn't be a barrier to Rare Bob's chances, though unless Cooper really does carry a magic wand instead of a whip, stamina might be.
And so to another 20-year-old, but one who's been there, done that and got several t-shirts as far as the National fences go, up in fourth in the jockey rankings. In fact, Sam Twiston-Davies has won the last two races that have taken place on the National course, courtesy of Hello Bud (who also won the 2010 Becher) and Little Josh, both trained by his father Nigel, as is Imperial Commander.
If you believe that former Gold Cup-winner Imperial Commander has still got it in him, then you can trust his new rider will get it all out of him over the National fences, new because his regular partner Paddy Brennan (himself in the Aintree top ten) is suspended.
Sometimes it's not the obstacles on the National course that can shatter National dreams. Two flights of hurdles on the Mildmay track scuppered Ruby Walsh's National chances ahead of the main event, when he was injured by a fall in the Aintree Hurdle in both 2010 and 2012. Those events, when the race was on the Saturday, led to something of scramble and a jockey merry-go-round, with lucrative 'spares' up for grabs.
On the outside chance last-minute riders are needed this year, connections of whoever needs them could do worse than reach for the slippers, with Niall 'Slippers' Madden boasting an excellent record - better still than Walsh on ratings, albeit from far less rides - on the National course. Alternatively, there is another jockey still riding who features in the top ten of the hit list but who hasn't ridden over fences of any sort since February 2012. We'll leave him for you to work out...
Top 10 Jockeys With Over 10 Rides Over National Fences And A Run Since The 2011 Grand National
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