Find Me a 100 Winner: Texan wind should make Fisher feel more at home

Wind-specialist Ross Fisher should be in his element at San Antonio

With just one week until the Masters, top stars are flocking to the Texas Open in pursuit of a confidence boost. The tournament history, however, points towards yet another shock winner. Paul Krishnamurty explains...

On the bare stats, one couldn't ask for a better place to find a 100.099/1 plus winner than this week's Valero Texas Open. The last two champions met the criteria, as did the majority of top-five finishers in those renewals. Moreover, five of the last seven PGA Tour winners started as triple-figure outsiders, although anyone who backed D A Points or John Merrick pre-tournament deserves a medal.

There have been many course changes ahead of this year's renewal so previous form at San Antonio is of limited value. Nevertheless, there is one core characteristic we know about this course - it's exposure to the wind. The forecast isn't for extreme wind speeds but it is expected, as usual, to be a factor throughout.

That premium on excellent wind-play could spark a revival from one of European golf's forgotten men, former Ryder Cup star Ross Fisher, at odds of 130.0129/1. Whilst understanding the economic logic, I was always sceptical of Fisher's decision to swap the European Tour, where was a regular contender, for the much more competitive and arguably less suitable PGA Tour. So it has turned out, with Ross yet to register a top-20 in his rookie season despite some impressive greens in regulation numbers.

This week's test, however, may well bring out his best as Ross is one of the most proficient wind players around - to the extent that I haven't given up hope on him as a future Open Championship winner. Who could forget his spreadeagling of a world-class field at a windy London Club? Or for that matter the first three rounds of the windswept 2009 Open at Turnberry, before one disaster hole transformed him from hot favourite to also-ran.

In addition to backing Fisher, one rank outsider makes the plan. Texans always warrant respect in their home state and amongst their number, Shawn Stefani catches the eye at 300.0299/1. Twice a Web.com Tour winner at the tail-end of 2012, Stefani made his first meaningful impact at the higher level on his penultimate start when finishing seventh at the Tampa Bay Championship.

The trading advice is to stake three units in total, then place orders to lay both players at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed seven units profit.

Recommended Bets

Back Ross Fisher 2u @ 130.0129/1
Back Shawn Stefani 1u @ 300.0299/1

Place order to lay both players 10u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2013 Stats: -28.5 units