Aintree Tips: Savour Sprinter but get against Dynaste

Grand National Switcher:

Could Sprinter Sacre go on to be the best ever?

Tony Calvin makes a case for an unfancied outsider in the Mildmay among his recommended bets for Friday at Aintree...

The best weapon in a punter's armoury is picking your battles - and that means betting only when the odds are in your favour.

Sitting out a race at a meeting like Aintree is easier said than done for most adrenalin-based punters, but that surely has to the case with the Melling Chase at 15:05.

Quite simply, it is the race of the season - and one where a financial involvement is not only unnecessary but hard to pinpoint.

I suspect that Sprinter Sacre could well be taken on by the Betfair layers today at around the 1.341/3 mark, and he could drift. 

But how confident can you be in taking on a horse that has looked imperious, and frankly unbeatable, over fences and one which Timeform rates the best of the modern era, even better than Kauto Star in his 2009 King George pomp.

But his would-be layers may point to the fact that in Flemenstar and Cue Card he faces his best two rivals yet - and Finian's Rainbow and For Non Stop are no slouches either - and over a trip in which he is unproven over fences. Indeed, he was beaten on his only attempt over 2m4f over hurdles.

But the form book, as well as the evidence of your own eyes, tells you that taking him on is akin to giving money away.

Back-to-lay punters may see some mileage in Flemenstar - this could be his optimum trip and don't forget this strong-traveller traded at 1.081/12 before emptying over 3m in the Lexus  - but the problem there is that he could be taken on for the lead by Cue Card and Finian's Rainbow, setting the race up for the favourite.

No bet for me - though there could be some mileage in backing Ryanair third For Non Stop in the betting without Sprinter Sacre market. If Flemenstar and Cue Card do cut each other's throats up front, then the race could be set up for a closer like For Non Stop to pick up the runner-up spot. Check out that market when the liquidity arrives on Friday.

If short-priced favourites are your bag, then My Tent Or Yours does look rock solid in the opener at 14:00. Tony McCoy reckons this is his best ride of the week, and the betting agrees. As do I. But, with only four runners against him, so has the opposition! 

But a favourite worth taking on could be Jewson disappointment Dynaste in the 14:30. And Vino Griego could be the one to back - with an in-running insurance lay highly recommended - against him.

Vino Griego has been called some unkind names in the past, and probably was again by some punters as he traded at a low of 1.222/9 when second in the 2m5f Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham last time.

He clearly is a horse that needs caressing into a race, but to question his resolution there, after impressive wins at Cheltenham and Ascot, seems harsh and I'd be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt on that score.

He may not be as sexy a punting proposition as Dynaste or the progressive Rocky Creek, but his handicap second at Cheltenham came off a mark of 145 and this longer trip on better ground shouldn't be a concern.

At Fisher's Cross looks a stand-out on form in the 16:15, but it is easy to see the massed rank of the Betfair layers picking on him.

He was very impressive in the Albert Bartlett, but he has never raced on anything better than soft ground, and the drying conditions will see surely him drift. But he has a lot in hand on form, so is certainly not one to be laying at too big a price.  

And it's no crime to sit the odd race out from a punting point of view...