Aintree Tips: Grandouet and Geraghty can storm to big race success

Is Barry Geraghty's decision to pilot Grandouet significant?

Racing expert Tony Calvin begins three days of Aintree tipping right here and he's looking at a Nicky Henderson horse to do the business on day one of the Grand National meeting 

A lot of National Hunt enthusiasts bemoan the fact that all roads lead to Cheltenham, with too many of the big-name horses wrapped in cotton wool throughout the season in preparation for their one big day at the Festival.

But there are no dead-end races or shortage of top class runners at this Aintree meeting, and in particular the Aintree Hurdle at 15:05 would probably deserve star billing on any Cheltenham card.

Oscar Whisky goes for his third consecutive win in the race - in the last two renewals he has beaten the luckless Thousand Stars by a neck; the Champion Hurdle form is represented by the third and fourth home, Countrywide Flame and Zarkandar; Grandouet has always threatened to have a true Grade 1-winning performance in him if staying on his feet when the fight is at its fiercest in races; and then there is the new kid on the block, The New One, sparkling winner of the Neptune.

But, for all his potential, does Nigel Twiston-Davies' youngster really deserve to be favourite in this lofty company? Timeform ratings, which have him rated at least 8lb inferior to five of his rivals here, suggest not.
 
The interesting runner here is Grandouet. The choice of Barry Geraghty over Oscar Whisky, he couldn't have gone into the Champion Hurdle with worse rumours surrounding his well-being and preparation but he was travelling like a dream when he fell four out.

Too often the dreams of his backers have quickly turned into nightmares as he has come to grief or failed to find as much as expected - after all, he has traded at odds-on and been beaten four times in his career.

And it was obviously too far out in the Champion to be bullish about where he would have finished. But today is the day that he can deliver what he has always promised. A warning though: stick in that in-running lay at the even-money mark; aside from his mishap potential, this strong traveller is unproven over the trip, too.

Nicky Henderson also has another back-to lay trading opportunity in the opener, in the shape of Vasco Du Ronceray in the 14:00.

Outside of Our Conor, you get the impression that the juveniles are all pretty much of a muchness this season.

But in Vasco Du Ronceray, we have a horse with a profile we can trust. Well, to a punting degree anyway. Namely, that he is powerful traveller who, before his highly creditable fifth in the Triumph, flattered to deceive. Check out his in-running lows of 1.331/3, 1.374/11 and 1.412/5 in his three previous races.

But he doesn't look a rogue and it could be that 2m on good ground on a sharper track like Aintree could finally see him finish a race as strongly as he usually tanks throughout a race. At his current Betfair odds at around 9.08/1, it looks well worth chancing. With that in-running lay insurance, obviously.

Silviniaco Conti dominates the betting for the Betfred Bowl at 14:30, and it is easy to see why.
His form this season would see him despatch this field with ease, and clearly Ruby still had to play his hand when the horse fell three out in the Gold Cup.

But, having spoken to the horse's trainer Paul Nicholls yesterday, there is clearly a slight worry over whether the horse will be seen in the same form today.

Indeed, all trainers will be concerned that their Cheltenham runners remain at their peak. It's a big question mark.

But at least in Cape Tribulation, we have a horse who won at both meetings last season - albeit in handicap company - and he looks well positioned to take advantage of any dip in form from the favourite. Current odds at around 17.016/1 look far too big.

Although his win at the Trials meeting came in heavy ground, he is equally at home on a sounder surface. And, like Grandouet and Vasco Du Ronceray, he is no mean traveller through a race himself. So the trading option is there, too, should you so wish.