вторник, 30 апреля 2013 г.

Acca Insurance > Cashback if one leg lets down your Football Acca!

Place a fivefold (minimum odds 6.0) on the Premier League and other top competitions this weekend and if only one leg lets you down, we'll give you half your stake back, up to 25.

Place a fivefold (minimum odds 6.0) on the Premier League and other top competitions this weekend and if only one leg lets you down, we'll give you half your stake back, up to 25.

Opt in now and start building your Acca..

Terms and Conditions

Can I take part?

You can take part if your Betfair account is registered in the UK or Republic of Ireland. You can only take part using one account.

What do I need to do?

Place at least /€5 on a match odds (1X2) fivefold (or above) multiple choosing matches from the FIFA World Cup Qualifiers, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, Premier League, FA Cup, English and Scottish football leagues (excluding Non-league), Scottish FA Cup, Serie A, Italian Cup (Coppa Italia), Bundesliga 1, German Cup (DFB Pokal), French Ligue 1, French Cup (Coupe De France), La Liga, Spanish Cup (Copa Del Rey), Dutch Eredevisie, Italy Serie B, Belgian Division 2, Airtricity Premier Division (Ireland), Brazilian Paulista A1, Brazilian Carioca A1, Segunda Division (Spain), Ligue 2 (France), Blue Square Premier, MLS (USA), Copa Libertadores & AFC Champions League on fixtures taking place from 30th April to 2nd May 2013 inclusive. Minimum accumulative odds 6.0 (5/1).

How does the Cashback Special work?

If your multiple has exactly one incorrect result, we will refund half your stake up to a maximum of /€25. If you get two or more results wrong, or your bet wins, you will not receive a credit.

Only your first bet placed counts.

If any of the matches selected as part of your qualifying multiples bet are postponed or abandoned, leaving you with fewer than five active matches during the promotional period, you will not be eligible for this promotion.

When will I be credited?

You will be credited within 48 hours of the end of the promotion.

Standard Betfair Terms and Conditions for promotions and competitions apply.

Barcelona v Bayern Munich > Cashback Special!

Place a pre-match First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer or Correct Score bet on Barcelona v Bayern Munich (Live on ITV, Wed 19:45) and if Lionel Messi scores the last goal in the game, we'll refund your stake!

Place a pre-match First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer or Correct Score bet on Barcelona v Bayern Munich (Live on ITV, Wed 19:45) and if Lionel Messi scores the last goal in the game, we'll refund your stake!

It was a memorable night for Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena last week following their 4-0 emphatic victory over Barcelona a week ago.

In contrast, it was a humiliating defeat for the visitors and any hopes of a survival took a severe blow when they failed to register that all important Champions League away goal.

Yes, Barcelona have been beaten before, but never this comprehensively. Instead of breathing down the necks of their opponents Barca were left suffocated by Bayern Munich, who's high intensity and outstanding individual displays proved too much for a team touted as the greatest ever.

It's hard to imagine that Barca will endure another miserable evening, especially in front of their home crowd at the Nou Camp, and with Lionel Messi returning to somewhere near full fitness one could never rule out Barca overcoming the mammoth challenge that lies ahead.

We're got over 100 competitive pre-match markets and all the best in-play prices at kick-off. Bet now and if Messi scores the last goal in the game, we'll refund your stake on selected markets.

Football Cashback Special

Can I take part?

You can take part if your Betfair account is registered in the UK or Republic of Ireland. You can only take part using one account.

What do I need to do?

Place a Sportsbook First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer or Correct Score bet on the featured 'Cashback Special' match before kick-off.

Exchange bets and multiples are not included in this promotion.

How does the Cashback Special work?

If the stated refund trigger occurs (regular examples - Steven Gerrard to score anytime or Lionel Messi to score first in the selected game), and your first bet loses, we'll refund your loss, up to /€50. Own goals do not count. If your player selected as the refund trigger is not named in the playing squad for the selected match (either starting or a substitute), we will then treat any red card (in 90 minutes) as the refund trigger for the defined fixture.

Only your first bet placed counts.

When will I be credited?

You will be credited within 72 hours of end of the featured match.

Betfair Standard Terms & Conditions apply.

French Open Betting: Plenty of big priced trades in the women's draw

Serena is favourite for the French Open but better value can be found elsewhere

The betting for the women's draw at the French Open is, as expected, headed by Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova but Gary Boswell believes there is more value in picking some high priced outsiders and backing to lay...

It is said that when Serena Williams is playing her 'A game' with the service in the zone, she cannot be beaten.

The world number is rightly now called best women's player ever and she has a 12-2 record over her main rival, Maria Sharapova, for the upcoming French Open title. This head-to-head includes two wins the only times the pair have met on the clay surface. Both wins, the most recent of which was in Madrid last year, were in straight sets.

So this means that 4.03/1 is a steal of a price on Serena? Especially as we know she is that much more focused for the Grand Slams?

Not necessarily. A study of the results on the surface makes for interesting reading. You have been able to get 7.06/1 and bigger about Williams for the past six years at Roland Garros simply because she doesn't have a great record in the tournament and has only made the semi-finals twice - the last time as far back as 2003.

The slower surface means Serena has less opportunity to power through opponents and often finds herself having to deal with returns that wouldn't have come back over the net elsewhere. She would also be the first to confess a distaste for 'the slide' - the split leg strategy you can use on the loose clay top surface that doesn't work on any other court.

Sharapova looks the more obvious market favourite on current form so her price of 5.24/1 will interest her fans. That head-to-head against Serena would worry me though. On balance, both look a bit short in the market and when you add in Australian Open Champion Victoria Azarenka at 6.411/2 - who has no kind of record on clay at all - you have a layers market on the top three in the betting.

The French Open has a record of throwing up an outsider. Francesca Schiavone was available at 200.0199/1 on Betfair before the tournament prior to winning in 2010 and is 100.099/1 again this time despite coming into the event in terrific form, having won in Marrakesh without dropping a set. 

She suits the surface and can overcome the power advantage of the Serenas and the Wozniackis when she gets on to clay. As indeed can compatriots Sara Errani (29.028/1), Flavia Pennetta (250.0249/1) and Roberta Vinci (140.0139/1) - all of whom can be supported with a view to a back-to-lay. It won't surprise me to see at least two Italians in the final eight.

While we are talking outsiders, it's worth noting the form of Schiavone's Marrakech final victim, the 32-year-old Lourdes Dominguez Lino - a stalwart of the clay game. A career high ranking of 40 is within her grasp again now and she has had recent notable wins over Pironkova and Pennetta. The Spaniard has a decent chance of bettering her best ever of third round and is worth trading at a big price once the market develops.

Recommended Bets (all back-to-lay)
Francesca Schiavone at 100.099/1
Sara Errani at 29.028/1
Flavia Pennetta at 250.0249/1
Roberta Vinci at 140.0139/1
Lourdes Dominguez Lino

Knott puts Hunt Ball up for sale

Anthony Knott will sell high-class chaser Hunt Ball

Hunt Ball will go under the hammer next month after he was supplemented into the Doncaster Bloodstock Sales...

Anthony Knott is to relinquish ownership of the Cheltenham Festival-winning eight-year-old - a day after trainer Keiran Burke had asked him to take the horse away from his Dorset yard.

The British Horseracing Authority recently handed out fines to Knott and Burke after Hunt Ball ran with a bookmaker's name printed on his hindquarters at this year's Festival.

Knott claimed it was an effort to raise money for charity, but the BHA said the trainer and the owner had acted "in a manner deemed prejudicial to the good name of the sport".

"I've just had enough of it all at the moment," said Knott.

"The news yesterday came out of the blue so I put him in the sales this morning. The fine didn't help. All we were trying to do was raise money for the air ambulance and a 4,000 fine just felt like a kick in the teeth.

"There's no doubt he'll make someone a great Saturday horse. You mark my words, all this horse needs is fast ground and he's top class. The only time he got it this year he could have broken the track record with 12st at Taunton."

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Premier League: Monster Villa win a wound to Wigan

Has that huge win for Aston Villa spelt curtains for Wigan?

Aston Villa's mammoth win over Sunderland has huge repercussions on the Premier League's relegation picture, writes Christian Crowther...

Not even in his wildest dreams would Paul Lambert have envisaged hitting Sunderland for a half-dozen at Villa Park on Monday night.

A win was certainly the target, but a victory by five clear goals has produced a profoundly positive impact on the relegation landscape for Aston Villa, as that timely goal difference boost lifts them above Newcastle into 16th with three left to play.

A special mention should be afforded to Christian Benteke, whose outstanding match ball-scooping performance typified just what a phenomenal start the Belgian has made to life in the Premier League.

If his side do stay up, with their own chances now rated at 9.28/1, with Newcastle available at the same price, then keeping hold of Benteke will be the biggest challenge that they face next season.

The win leaves Wigan, who do have a game in hand against Swansea, cut adrift by five points as they now glance up at the Magpies as the bottom club of a trio also featuring Sunderland and Villa. They are separated only by goal difference on 37 points.

The Latics' price to become the third team to drop out of the top flight has understandably moved in to 1.4740/85.

Many observers and punters alike have written Wigan off at their peril in seasons past, however, the grimness of the situation is about as bleak as it has been during their eight-season Premier League adventure.

Their FA Cup final appearance, for which Roberto Martinez and his squad deserve huge credit, could ironically be their undoing, much like happened to Birmingham when they went down despite winning the League Cup back in 2010/11.

Still, if they can win their game in hand with a Swansea team which have looked beach-bound for some time then the last day showdown with Villa could yet prove their salvation.

Even though Sunderland received the thumping on Monday night, a ten-goal advantage on Villa (and 11 on Newcastle) with two home games to play understandably makes them the outsiders in the 37-point gang at 19.5n/a to go down.

With two away matches from three and now the worst goal difference to boot, Newcastle look in the most danger should Wigan pick up a few wins.

League Two Playoffs Betting: Home comforts to hand Bradford and Northampton first leg advantage

The Bantams can take a first leg lead into the second

Bradford and Northampton should make the most of home advantage in the first legs of the League Two play-offs, says Ian Lamont, who fancies goals at Valley Parade but not so many at Sixfields...

Bradford City 2.01/1 v Burton Albion 4.3100/30; The Draw 3.711/4
Kick-off: Thursday 19:45 
I wonder sometimes whether I worry too much. Is Bradford's cup expertise - having reached the Capital One Cup Final - in their favour for the play-offs or do those extra games mean they will be exhausted? 

The Bantams will play at least 63 games this season, prompting Phil Parkinson to play Andrew Davies, often injured but a huge presence, at centre-back on Saturday to rest Rory McArdle after 55 games. Davies was sent off for two yellow cards and will be suspended. His manager felt he let the team down.

Eight players were changed in all but consider none of them mere 'squad players', the 0-0 with last year's play-off final losers Cheltenham confirming as much. No wonder the city's newspaper takes the tone, comparing League Two to a prison cell, that the fourth tier is somehow beneath Bradford.
 
Such disrespectful talk is bound to wind up opposing teams, whether it comes from the club or not. Just two defeats since Wembley is a telling statistic, however, as the Yorkshire club rose to seventh. Furthermore, as Opta state, Burton have never won at Valley Parade and, worse, their last four away games reaped just two points.

That they have salvaged a league-high 23 points from losing positions seems an Opta warning, however, until it is considered that Bradford, at home, have dropped points from leading positions just three times. The Brewers finished the season with a confidence-boosting 3-2 win over weakened Gillingham, Billy Kee (13 this season) finding his scoring touch again along with Calvin Zola (11). All four of their main scorers have netted in recent weeks, Matthew Paterson (7) and Jacques Maghoma (15) battling for net-busting rights. But which Burton will turn up? The one that won 4-0 at Fleetwood or the one that lost 7-1 at Port Vale?

The one that lost 1-0 at Bradford just 10 days ago will not be intimidated by a Premier League standard stadium, that is for sure.

Anyone who has backed them in from 16.015/1 in the to be promoted market will surely want to cash out now they are 3.3512/5 favourites. It should be worth holding on, at least until the final. Bradford are the team with real momentum and with the play-off matches in the last two years favouring the teams who were at home first, combined with their momentum, it is worth backing them to win even though they are short-priced favourites, all things considered. Over 2.5 goals should also be in order, as the visitors will surely try to make some of the running.

Recommended Bets
Back Bradford @ 2.01/1
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.05n/a

Northampton 2.35/4 v Cheltenham 3.3512/5; The Draw 3.45n/a
Kick-Off: Thursday 19:45

Ben Tozer believes his Northampton side can 'mix it up' in terms of varying how they play: they can bully, rely on set pieces or, more importantly, pass and move. 

A terrific home record of late - 10 straight wins at Sixfields before the 2-0 loss to desperate York - indicates a win-at-any-method mentality which will surely stand them in good stead in the play-offs. Ade Akinfenwa, who Opta emphasise has scored in three of his last four games against Cheltenham, can certainly use his size to intimidate up front. He will be fresh from being rested, while the Cobblers await news on the fitness of Clive Platt.

The Cobblers defeated Barnet, who were desperate for points, on the season's final day and it is telling that, in those 11 wins out of the last 12 home games, Aidy Boothroyd's side only conceded three goals - in the first three games. Possibly. But which was the last team to win at Sixfields before that? You've guessed it. Cheltenham, 3-2. They also won on their own turf.

So, the Robins' nerves - having been beaten in the play-off final last year - will be somewhat settled. Keeper Scott Brown has kept 20 clean sheets this season, six in the last eight games, to earn him two player of the year awards. Team-mate Marlon Pack has been named in the League Two team of the year and, at 22, already has 150 league appearances. He proved he can pack a punch with a stunning goal in last year's play-off semi-final, in the second leg at Torquay. Jermaine McGlashan also has to be marshalled well.

He is second top scorer with seven. Only Shaun Harrad with eight has more, which must be a bit of a concern. But Mark Yates's men also have Paul Benson, who opened the scoring for Dagenham when they won the play-off final in 2010.

Two defeats this season against Cheltenham will give Northampton plenty of ammunition. In fact, Opta reveal, the hosts are without a win in six against their opponents. However, with Northampton's home record, it is hard to argue against them. Under 2.5 goals at 1.845/6 is an even stronger fancy, given Northampton do not like conceding at home. A 1-0 home win is value at @ 8.27/1 as a back to cashout at least.

Recommended Bet
Back Northampton @ 2.35/4

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.845/6

Back 1-0 Northampton @ 8.27/1

Championship Promotion: Watford to overhaul Tigers

Gianfranco Zola should be smiling on the last day of the season

The race for promotion on the Championship's last day promises high-end drama, Christian Crowther tries to make sense of a plethora of permutations...

Let's start at the top and work down. The hottest topic in the higher echelons of the Championship is who, just who, will be joining Cardiff in the one remaining automatic promotion spot?

Will it be Gianfranco Zola's Watford outfit or will Steve Bruce's Tigers keep their claws stuck into second as they entertain the champions at the KC Stadium.

Watford have the momentum, winning there last two games, while Hull's goalscoring and consequently results have dried up at just the wrong time - they've failed to beat or even score against any of the bottom-three sides in their last three games.

The Hornets entertain woeful travellers Leeds, who have nothing to play for, so you'd expect them to fulfil their side of the bargain, whereas Hull face the champions, who have drawn five of their last six games and haven't lost in seven. 

On this evidence, Watford's price of 2.265/4 to make the top two holds much more appeal than Hull's odds of 1.784/5, with just a point the difference. As Watford's goal difference is superior, a draw will suffice if Hull lose, with the Tigers obliged to match Watford's result to seal second.

The play-off spots still remain a tangled web, with no one prepared to stamp their authority. 

It's a four-way tussle to join Brighton and the losers of Hull and Watford's scrap as Crystal Palace, Bolton, Nottingham Forest and Leicester fight over fifth and sixth with just three points separating these clubs (although Palace could still technically wrestle fourth from Brighton).

Despite a dismal eight-game winless run which includes four defeats, two consecutive draws have somehow kept Palace at a one-point advantage over Bolton and Forest with a game in hand. 

With a superior goal difference over all bar Leicester - three points back - even the Eagles will do well to throw a play-off spot away, with their chances of a top-six finish priced at 1.141/7. They make the short trip to struggling Millwall on Tuesday night, with victory enough to secure their place and avoid any final-day angst.

Bolton's own 1.4740/85-rated prospects of remaining in the top six are emboldened by their good form and a home game against a Blackpool side with nothing to play for.

But even better for Dougie Freedman's Trotters is the fact that Leicester and Nottingham Forest face off at the City Ground, with four of the last five east midlands derbies between them finishing all square. 

It's therefore unsurprising to find Forest and Leicester's chances priced at 3.39/4 and 6.411/2 respectively, as a draw could easily prove fatal to both. 

Recommended Bet: Back Watford for a top-two finish @ 2.265/4

Knott puts Hunt Ball up for sale

Anthony Knott will sell high-class chaser Hunt Ball

Hunt Ball will go under the hammer next month after he was supplemented into the Doncaster Bloodstock Sales...

Anthony Knott is to relinquish ownership of the Cheltenham Festival-winning eight-year-old - a day after trainer Keiran Burke had asked him to take the horse away from his Dorset yard.

The British Horseracing Authority recently handed out fines to Knott and Burke after Hunt Ball ran with a bookmaker's name printed on his hindquarters at this year's Festival.

Knott claimed it was an effort to raise money for charity, but the BHA said the trainer and the owner had acted "in a manner deemed prejudicial to the good name of the sport".

"I've just had enough of it all at the moment," said Knott.

"The news yesterday came out of the blue so I put him in the sales this morning. The fine didn't help. All we were trying to do was raise money for the air ambulance and a 4,000 fine just felt like a kick in the teeth.

"There's no doubt he'll make someone a great Saturday horse. You mark my words, all this horse needs is fast ground and he's top class. The only time he got it this year he could have broken the track record with 12st at Taunton."

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Lee Dixon: Real will go down fighting in Champions League semi but for Barca the dream is already over

Down and out - are Madrid tumbling out of the competition at the semi-final stage?

The two Spanish giants were humbled in Germany last week and - like most other football fans - Lee Dixon doesn't see either Real Madrid or Barcelona reversing their positions against Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, but he is expecting an entertaining game at the Bernabeu... 

It's easy to assume that the Champions League semi-finals are done and dusted after a pair of stunning victories for the German clubs last week.

And, I have to say, it would be very hard to disagree with that assumption! 

Betfair customers certainly see it that way, making an all-German final a 1.271/4 chance. 

For Barcelona the dream really is over. Bayern Munich are too confident, too strong and too polished to give up a 4-0 first leg advantage, but Real Madrid have a very slim chance of overhauling Borussia Dortmund thanks to Cristiano Ronaldo's goal at the Westfalenstadion.

Of all the teams in Europe you might back to do the seemingly impossible, Jose Mourinho's Madrid would be right up there. The Portuguese manager is capable of stunning things and we know never to rule his teams out, especially one containing an on-pitch genius too.

If Madrid are going to pull off the impossible, a fast start will be absolutely essential. A goal in the first 20 minutes will give Real a taste for the task at hand, get Dortmund on the back foot and set the visitors' minds racing. 

I certainly expect Madrid to score, but with three goals needed I doubt they can keep Jurgen Klopp's men out at their end. The imperative will be on the home side to take the game to the visitors and that will surely create chances for Robert Lewandoski and co.

The Betfair markets have clearly factored that into their thinking, pricing over 3.5 goals at a scarcely believable 2.01/1. Even though I expect a relatively high-scoring game that is not a price for me. If we don't see the 0-0 broken early there is always the chance this could peter out.

Borussia Dortmund have had the whip hand on Real throughout the Champions League, unbeaten in three games against the nine-times champions, but the game they lose will probably still be the one that sends them into the final.

Real will undoubtedly give this a big effort but there is enough class in the visiting lineup and enough knowledge of their opponents to get through this test. 

In what could be a volatile game let's keep stakes low and play a few correct scores, factoring in that all-important goal for the visitors that will surely kill the tie off. 

Recommended Bets
Back Real to win 3-1 @ 12.011/1 and 3-2 @ 23.022/1 

British Lions Betting: Wilko should have been in not out

Jonny Wilkinson has shown with Toulon that he's still the master in his position

Sam Warburton will captain the Lions but Jonny Wilkinson and Chris Robshaw will be left at home. Ralph Ellis fears that Warren Gatland has made some key mistakes in today's squad announcement.

The unique thing about a Lions tour is that it happens once every four years. It isn't part of a progression, it doesn't involve team building over time, or planning for the future. You aren't preparing for a World Cup. It is the ultimate sporting occasion when all that matters is here and now.

So when Warren Gatland settled down to finalise the squad he named this morning, the last thing he needed to look at was the age of any of the players. All that mattered was their form and fitness.

Given those parameters, why did he leave out the fly half who had just kicked his club into the European Cup Final?  Why wouldn't you choose the experienced guy who had put any injury worries behind him by playing almost every game of a full season for a club who are competing for their title? In short Jonny Wilkinson should have been on the plane. In fact Sir Clive Woodward's view this morning was that he should not only have been in the squad but the starting Test team. He is the proven performer, and has just reinforced that he is still the best in his position that the Northern Hemisphere has to offer.

Gatland's argument has been that he wanted to put the whole squad on one flight to begin team building at the start of the tour. That's great in theory, but in practice is a nonsense. When you deal with the reality of a Lions trip, there will inevitably be some people called up late because of injuries to others who have to go home early.

Last time, in South Africa, Danny Care flew halfway around the world to join up from his holiday, and then got sent straight home again because of an injury and they found another replacement. What difference would it really have made if Wilkinson came a few days late so he could complete his domestic season with Toulon? And if club duties rule out Wilkinson, why is his Toulon team mate Gethin Jenkins, who is also likely to be kept back in France, included?

Gatland's Lions are just odds on at between 1.855/6 and 1.9520/21 to win the Test series  against the Aussies, but the squad he has picked raises some questions, and not only about Wilko.

Sam Warburton as captain is also a big call. It's only a couple of months ago that he couldn't get into the Welsh team, and was deposed as skipper. He chose to swerve captaincy duties to get his own form back up to scratch, and yet he is now going to lead the Lions. Meanwhile Chris Robshaw, who was in superb form for all but the last game of the Six Nations, is not on the plane at all.

Back in February, Gatland revealed he was worried about the dangers of a Lions tour to Australia degenerating into "an anti-England media circus". Well at least that won't happen now. The big danger, instead, is that we'll have an anti-Wales circus, with the travelling media wondering how as many as 15 players got included in a 37 strong party. It's only a surprise that Gareth Bale hasn't been brought in to help with the kicking.

Against All Odds: Lions and Eagles to give us goals

Lions are a dangerous animal when wounded

There's a big game in the Championship this evening as Millwall host Crystal Palace and while both teams have been struggling to score of late, Paul Robinson thinks the goals could flow.

Millwall were looking like play-off contenders earlier in the campaign but Kenny Jackett's men are now in the midst of a relegation battle. They are only one point clear of Barnsley and Peterborough but victory tonight would ensure their safety. 

That is clearly a huge incentive for The Lions as they won't want their fate unknown going into the final day, especially as they are away from home. The vocal home support will be roaring them on at The Den and while they have struggled for goals recently - four in seven - I'm confident that they will go all out for the three points in this one.

Crystal Palace are another side on the slide but they are at least still in the promotion hunt. Ian Holloway's outfit are in fifth place, but have Bolton, Nottingham Forest and Leicester all snapping at their heels. 

The Eagles also have a huge incentive to win this evening as three points would all but secure their play-off place given their superior goal difference over their rivals. 

Again, the stats don't point to goals for Palace as they have netted just two in their last half dozen away matches, however this is the time for players like Glenn Murray and the departing Wilfried Zaha to step up to the plate.

Under 2.5 goals is trading as low as 1.865/6 and I think that has to be taken on as I can't see either team settling for a draw. That should translate into 90 minutes of attacking football, and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Millwall v Crystal Palace @ 1.865/6 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 119 pts
Returned: 106.17 pts
P/L – 12.83 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Premier League Tips: Swansea's slump to continue

Mancini needs to win as many games as he can to ease the pressure

Paul Robinson looks to build on a profitable week that had three winners, including a correct score at 6.0 (5/1). Here are his selections from Betfair's Sportsbook:

Swansea v Man City 

Back Man City @ 1.72 (8/11)  
Back Man City to win 2-0 @ 8.0 (7/1)  

Swansea have struggled since the Capital One Cup victory and with Manchester City in town on Saturday, I can't see anything other than an away win.

Michael Laudrup has received plenty of plaudits this season and been linked with some top jobs. His supporters must be at least slightly concerned with how his side's form has tailed off dramatically in recent weeks though.

Since their Wembley glory in the cup, The Swans edged past Newcastle 1-0 - a result that flattered them - and then picked up just two points from a possible 18. The players seem to be going through the motions ever so slightly as they are safely berthed in mid-table with little to play for.

Manchester City also have little to play for in terms of the league as they look booked for second place. Roberto Mancini is still under a little bit of pressure though and he will want to finish on a high to keep the detractors at bay. City also have the FA Cup final to look forward to and with such a big squad, the players will be wanting to perform well to secure their place in the first team at Wembley.

Their results have been a bit mixed away from the Etihad recently - three defeats in five - but with Sergio Aguero back to fitness and Carlos Tevez in decent form, I can see them having too much quality for Swansea.

This should be a relatively comfortable victory for last year's champions so not only do I recommend backing them to win, I like the look of a 0-2 correct score at 8.0 (7/1).

West Brom v Wigan  

Back West Brom @ 2.37 (11/8)  
Back West Brom to win 3-1 @ 17.0 (16/1)  

Wigan travel to the Hawthorns badly in need of a win this weekend but I'm afraid to say I can't see them getting it here as West Brom are looking too strong.

The Baggies ended a run of five without victory by comprehensively beating Southampton at St Mary's last Saturday. Steve Clarke fielded both Shane Long and Romelu Lukaku in that match - a rare thing for him - and it worked wonderfully as they both scored.

They look set to finish eighth and that is a huge achievement not only given the club's stature, but also the fact that this is Clarke's first season as a number one. He has built a side that is strong at the back - eight clean sheets - but also one that has plenty of power and pace going forward, especially on the counter.

Wigan are really struggling now after Aston Villa's 6-1 demolition of Sunderland. Conceding that last minute equaliser to Spurs may have left them with too much to do as they are five points adrift of safety, albeit with a game in hand. 

Roberto Martinez will be disillusioned with how his side defended last weekend but that's been the story of their season really. They have conceded 62 goals - only three less than Reading - and the Spanish manager has even reverted to playing four at the back.

The Latics have lost their last two on the road and I think that statistic will become three on Saturday. West Brom are fantastic value at 2.37 (11/8) as is a 3-1 correct score at 17.0 (16/1).

Liverpool v Everton 

Back Liverpool @ 2.0 (1/1)  
Back Liverpool/Liverpool in the HT/FT Market @ 3.25 (9/4)  

It's the 220th Merseyside derby live on Sky Sports One at 13:30 this Sunday and I have to favour the home side as David Moyes' Everton have a history of choking against their neighbours when it matters.

Liverpool put the 10 game ban for Luis Suarez behind them by demolishing Newcastle 6-0 at St James' Park in a fantastic display. Yes, the defending from the Toon was poor, but the likes of Philippe Coutinho, Jordan Henderson and Danny Sturridge played some superb stuff at times. Lucas Leiva also had a fantastic match - breaking up the play on a regular basis - and he seems almost back to his best after a couple of nasty injuries.

The Reds would of course prefer to have Suarez available, but his absence will give others the chance to shine and Fabio Borini will be wanting to prove a point before the summer as his Liverpool career hasn't really got going yet.

Brendan Rodgers' men are five points adrift of Everton with just three games to go so a win is absolutely imperative if they want to finish above them and as The Blues go to Chelsea on the final day, it could be a real possibility.

David Moyes' team have had a fine campaign but it looks like they're going to just miss out on the European places and it will be interesting to see what that means in terms of a summer shake up.

The Toffees beat Fulham 1-0 last weekend and that continued their decent home form - five wins in a row - however their results away from Goodison haven't been anywhere near as good. It's no win in six for Everton on the road and while they drew at both Spurs and Arsenal, they were beaten by Norwich and Sunderland.

Everton haven't won at Anfield since 1999 and I can't see that changing on Sunday. Liverpool should win this comfortably for my money, so as well as backing a home win, Liverpool to be winning at half time and at full time is worth an investment at 3.25 (9/4).

Recommended Bets
Back Man City @ 1.72 (8/11)  
Back Man City to win 2-0 @ 8.0 (7/1)  
Back West Brom @ 2.37 (11/8)  
Back West Brom to win 3-1 @ 17.0 (16/1)  
Back Liverpool @ 2.0 (1/1)  
Back Liverpool/Liverpool in the HT/FT Market @ 3.25 (9/4)  

Prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

1000 Guineas: Cecil expects mile to suit Snap

Hot Snap returns to Newmarket on Sunday

Sir Henry Cecil expects the step back up to a mile will be in Hot Snap's favour when she seeks to give the Warren Place trainer a seventh success in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday...

The daughter of Pivotal leapt to the head of the betting for the first fillies' Classic when winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes over seven furlongs in tremendous style at HQ on her reappearance. Her only previous start had come over a mile as a two-year-old when she won a maiden at Kempton in September.

"The mile will suit her better and hopefully the experience of the Nell Gwyn will have brought her on," the trainer told www.sirhenrycecil.com.

"She is coming in her coat but will always be a very tall filly with plenty of bone (and) not over-robust. I think she will get a mile and a quarter. The Oaks trip (of a mile and a half) is a slight question-mark at the moment.

"We may consider the Musidora Stakes at York (May 15) but we will wait and see. The Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot could be the other alternative but she will tell us which way to go."

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Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund: Back Klopp's men to handle the pressure

Dortmund striker Marco Reus was a menace in the first leg

Real Madrid are looking to pull off an extraordinary comeback against Borussia Dortmund, but Kevin Hatchard thinks the Germans can complete the job they started spectacularly last week.

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund, Champions League SF 2nd Leg, Tue 19:45 BST, Live on ITV1

Match Odds: Real 1.594/7, Dortmund 5.95/1, the draw 4.94/1

Borussia Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp says protecting a 4-1 first-leg lead at the Bernabeu won't be a walk in the park, and as understatements go that's a pretty big one. Robert Lewandowski's stunning four-goal salvo has put BVB within touching distance of the final, but there is still plenty of work to do.

Real boss Jose Mourinho insists anything's possible, but history is against his side. Opta tell us that only one team has ever managed to overturn a 4-1 first-leg deficit in the Champions League - Deportivo La Coruna beat AC Milan 4-0 in 2004. Of more comfort to Real fans will be the team's superb Champions League home record under Mourinho - they have won 14 out of 17 games, and ten of those victories were by at least a three-goal margin. Real know a 3-0 win would take them through to this year's final at Wembley.

Klopp has been keen to stress that his side won't shut up shop and look to solely defend, and he has hinted that Dortmund will react to whichever approach Real adopt. That's hardly surprising, as Dortmund are one of the best counter-attacking teams in Europe. When pressed on whether his young team would freeze on the big occasion, Klopp icily and simply replied 'no'. He has plenty of evidence to back up that assertion. BVB are the only unbeaten team left in the competition, and in three matches against Real this season they have won twice and been denied a third victory at the death by a Mesut Ozil equaliser. It's also worth noting that Dortmund aren't some gang of callow novices - they did the league and cup double in Germany last season, and won the Bundesliga the year before. These boys can handle pressure.

With a three-goal deficit to wipe out, it's hard to see Real settling for a slow start. In La Liga Real have led at half-time in 10 of their 16 home games, but in the Champions League they have held the half-time advantage just twice in five home matches. The market clearly expects goals. Over 2.5 Goals is available at a stingy 1.422/5, and I can't recall seeing a match that has Over 3.5 Goals trading as low as 2.0811/10.

Cristiano Ronaldo is back to lead the line for Los Merengues after missing the weekend's 2-1 derby win at Atletico with a thigh injury. The Portuguese superstar is the competition's top scorer with 12 goals, and he has netted in each of his last six UCL matches. Ronaldo and Dortmund left-back Marcel Schmelzer are the only players to have featured in every minute of their teams' respective Champions League campaigns. Ronaldo was gifted a goal in the first leg, but he was kept pretty quiet on the whole as Dortmund dominated. This time around Ronaldo is a miserly 1.625/8 in the To Score market, and he is 4.1n/a to be First Goalscorer.

Dortmund hot-shot Lewandowski rightly took the plaudits for his magnificent display in the first leg, a mind-blowing display of close control and ice-cool finishing. Mourinho raged after the match that his players hadn't put the Pole under enough physical pressure, and Real will surely put more effort into shackling him this time around. That focus on Lewandowski could open up space for his attacking partners-in-crime Mario Gotze and Marco Reus, and I fancy the latter in the To Score market at 4.47/2. Reus netted in a 2-2 draw at the Bernabeu, and he scored in all three of his side's away games in the group stage. Real will be forced to commit men forward as they chase a glorious comeback, and I think Reus can use his blistering pace to profit from the space they leave behind. It's also worth noting that Reus was a constant threat in the first leg, teeing up his side's second goal and winning the penalty that led to the fourth.

Real will be without injured full-backs Marcelo and Alvaro Arbeloa, but other than that they have a clean bill of health. Dortmund rested all of their key players at the weekend, and both Gotze and Ilkay Gundogan are thought to have shaken off knocks. The only doubt is over right-back Lukas Piszczek, who faces a late fitness test on a groin injury.

I understand why Real are favourites given their quality and their home record, but they haven't beaten Klopp's boys in three attempts, and they were battered last week. I think 1.594/7 is too short for the home win, especially if Dortmund can score early and kill the tie. Backing Dortmund with a one-goal advantage on the Asian Handicap at 2.05n/a looks sensible to me, but you may also be tempted to back Dortmund Draw No Bet at 4.77/2, which returns your stake in the event of a draw.

Recommended Bet
Back Marco Reus to score at 4.47/2
Back Borussia Dortmund +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.05n/a

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Tuesday April 30

Michael Bell trains two of today's SmartPlays

We're mixing afternoon and evening racing for today's UK SmartPlays.

Our first two bets come from Yarmouth, both reliant on the continued return to form of the Michael Bell yard. Firstly there's George Cinq in the mile handicap at 15:10. His profile is a fairly familiar one: three runs as a juvenile, showing the benefit for his debut when winning on his second start before shaping well in a handicap. In the case of George Cinq, that promising handicap run was a second-placed finish to Tamarkuz, which we can assure you will be no disgrace come the end of the season. Well bred, if not necessarily for this trip, the manner in which George Cinq saw out seven furlongs last time suggests he'll get a mile if he's fit first time up.

Our second selection comes in the next race. We can be more certain about of King of Jazz's fitness as he has a couple of runs behind him already this spring, the first an eye-catching third at Doncaster before he suffered interference at the same course last time. Just shy of a year ago, King of Jazz finished third in the Victoria Cup from a mark 10 lb higher than the one he shoulders today, so he's clearly a well-treated horse. Admittedly, he's been difficult to win with down the years, though he's generally been mixing it in better company than this, so King of Jazz is definitely worth chancing today.

There's a marked change of tack for our final SmartPlay. In Exeter's final race at 20:05 there are a couple of unexposed improvers, but we're chancing a well-handicapped horse further down the weights. Fashion Weekstruggled all the way through 2012/13, though all four runs came on soft/heavy going and his previous best had come under much firmer conditions. It's not often that a Timeform tip will come on the basis of ground alone, and part of the reason Fashion Week is worth a chance this evening is the form of the Susan Gardner yard: a couple of wins last week, including the Highland National at Perth with Flying Award, means the stable is enjoying its best run for a while and Fashion Week appears to have plenty in his favour to add to that.  

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back George Cinq @ 4.67/2 in the 15:10 Yarmouth
Back King of Jazz @ 5.24/1 in the 15:40 Yarmouth
Back Fashion Week @ 10.5n/a in the 20:05 Exeter

Timeform Radio Tips: Stoute's gelding holds strong Claims

Sir Michael Stoute's Claim has a good chance at Yarmouth

David Cleary fired in a winner at BSP 34.033/1 on Saturday and he provides you with two bets today... 

A long and busy day is in prospect, with three well-supported seven-race cards on the Flat this afternoon, followed by double jumping action this evening. The best bet of the afternoon may be Checkpoint in the mile-and-a-half maiden at Bath, due off at 15.20. Just six are set to line up but at least four of them can be given a chance (Ballinderry Boy has shown little so far but could conceivably improve markedly for a big step up in trip). Jullundar is the most exposed of the likely quartet and has to race on much firmer ground than previously on turf. That might even suit him but the likelihood is one of the others will improve past him. In any case, one of the others has already shown better form, the four-year-old Checkpoint.

A reproduction of his second at Salisbury last summer would very likely to be good enough to win this. He didn't match that effort on his final start and might have been expected to have run over hurdles during the winter, after joining Gary Moore from Sir Henry Cecil. However, Checkpoint hadn't shown much on soft going on his debut on the Flat and it may just be the prevailing conditions which have kept him off since August. He should be well suited by the step up in trip this afternoon. Of the other pair, Refer has a good pedigree and showed some promise in a weak maiden at Windsor, run on very different ground from that he'll face this afternoon. Could Be has shown promise on polytrack and may improve for the switch to turf this afternoon but his form doesn't have much depth to it. At the morning prices, Checkpoint looks the bet.

The 15.10 at Yarmouth sees four of the seven runners making their first appearance of the year, but, provided he's tuned up for his return, Claim makes a fair bit of appeal. Gelded since finishing a good fourth in a nursery over course and distance on his final start at two, Claim is less exposed than most of these and looks the type to progress again at three. His form looks stronger than that of the other unexposed runner in the line-up George Cinq, who is also making his reappearance. Claim may also have a tactical advantage and George Cinq isn't certain to improve for the step up to a mile either.

Recommended bets

Back Checkpoint @ 5.04/1 in the 15.20 at Bath
Back Claim @ 4.3100/30 in the 15.10 at Yarmouth

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Home and Away: Back Holloway's boys to tame Lions tonight

After some inconsistent performances of late, Crystal Palace must get something from this clash.

Jonno Turner looks at action in the Champions League and Championship - both of which are in their final stages...

We're off to Spain for our first pick of the day - and Real Madrid welcome Borussia Dortmund to the Bernabeu in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, looking to overturn a massive 4-1 loss from last Wednesday.

Jose Mourinho's side have their work cut out this evening, and will be looking to burst out of the traps right from the off in order to give themselves any chance of securing a place in the final of this competition.

That seems unlikely based on their first showing in this tie - but that away goal could hugely important for the hosts.

Real welcome Alvaro Arbeloa back into the side following suspension and he should shore up the defence somewhat - with Cristiano Ronaldo also making his comeback following a thigh strain.

A 2-1 win at rivals Atletico Madrid at the weekend will have boosted confidence in the home camp, and that was their 13th win in 17 outings.

It's also worth noting that los Blancos have not lost on their own patch since January 2012, and 29 goals smashed in their last 10 on their own patch shows just how dominant they can be at the Bernabeu.

Mourinho has certainly done nothing to lift the pressure on his players - calling this one Real Madrid's 'biggest game in 10 years' - and they will be desperate to weigh in with a positive performance on their own patch, whatever the ultimate outcome.

Visitors Dortmund go into this one having won their last six on the bounce - but their away form isn't so stellar, and they have won just four of their last 10 on the road.

Mourinho will no doubt also have noticed that the Germans have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 on their travels, and that suggests that there could be goals goals goals here.

Jurgen Klopp will be reminding his side of the importance of avoiding complacency, and it's worth noting that Dortmund have surrendered a three-goal first-leg lead before, when Club Brugge reversed a 3-0 first leg loss with a 5-0 home success in the 1987/88 UEFA Cup third round.

Bet 1: Real Madrid (HOME) @ 1.59

Back to slightly less glamourous climes now - as Millwall host Crystal Palace at the Den, in what looks set to be a massive game for both sides, but for different reasons.

Kenny Jackett's Lions side line up for this clash sitting 19th in the Championship, and desperately need maximum points in order to put some breathing space between themselves and the drop zone.

Just one point separates the hosts from Barnsley, who occupy the final relegation place going into the last weekend of the season, and Jackett will be keen for his side to arrest a slump which has seen them lose five of their last six, as they welcome their south London rivals to their patch.

And just one win from 10 in front of their own fans suggests that the New Den is not the fortress it once was.

Visitors Crystal Palace travel to this encounter occupying fifth place in the table, but have just a one point advantage on seventh placed Nottingham Forest - and run a real risk of slipping out of the play-offs should they lose this game.

Ian Holloway's side have struggled for consistency of late - but just four losses from their last 15 indicates that the Eagles are capable of holding out their opponents, and three draws from their last four exemplifies that.

A draw at Blackburn on Saturday was two points less than Holloway would've liked, and he will be keen for his charges to heap more misery on the Lions this evening - and, at the same time, secure their place in the top six.

Bet 2: Crystal Palace (AWAY) @ 2.72

IPL Betting: Sunrisers Hyderabad v Mumbai Indians

Back big hitting Dwayne Smith to top score for Mumbai

Wednesday's opening game is a mid-table clash between Hyderabad, who are on a losing streak, and a resurgent Mumbai Indians. Richard O'Hagan has all of the news

Sunrisers Hyderabad v Mumbai Indians
Wednesday 1 May 2013 at 11:30 BST
Live on ITV4 and itv.com

Sunrisers Hyderabad

The hosts have lost some of their momentum as two consecutive defeats have dropped them down the table to a position a win behind the play-off places. This is the first of three consecutive home games and they'll need to win all of them to stay in contention. To do that, their batsmen will need to find some form, especially after being reduced to 29-6 in their last game against Rajasthan on Sunday. All-rounder Thisara Perera is their top run scorer with a meagre 144 and no batsman has scored more than 63 in an innings. Captain Kumar Sangakkara dropped himself for a few games and it may be no coincidence that he returned to the side for those two defeats. The problem, though, is that his replacement, South African Quinton de Kock, managed to score even fewer runs (just six from three innings). With no batsman in form they will again rely heavily upon their bowling attack. Spinner Amit Mishra has 14 wickets already (good enough for fifth in the overall table) whilst Perera, Dale Steyn and Ishant Sharma are also into double figures. Expect no changes to that part of the lineup, but the bowlers - as shown in that eight wicket defeat on Sunday - can do little if the batsmen can't put the runs on the board.

Mumbai Indians

Mumbai's recent form has been the opposite of Hyderabad's, with three wins representing an upturn in their fortunes after a slump saw them tumble down the table. Again, the captaincy has been a significant factor in this, Ricky Ponting's decision to drop himself has left an overseas space for West Indian Dwayne Smith, who has scored 146 runs in those three matches, whilst new captain Rohit Sharma has also thrived, picking up 122 runs of his own. Sachin Tendulkar continues to disappoint, averaging just 17.44, but there is little prospect of him being dropped in what is widely expected to be his farewell season. With the ball, two much-maligned bowlers have shored up a sometimes shaky attack, but you do wonder how long Mitchell Johnson and Harbhajan Singh can keep that up for, especially with overseas stars such as Lasith Malinga (once the most feared bowler in this form of the game) and Kieron Pollard providing little support.

Venue and Conditions

There may be a little rain around the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium at the start of play, but this should swiftly disappear, leaving a clear, dry, evening with temperatures in the high 30s. This is only the fourth game that has been played there this year and in none of the three previous matches has a side scored more than 130 in the first innings.

Match Odds

Hyderabad have won all of their home games this season. Two of those wins were over strugglers Pune and Punjab, whilst the other was a surprise Super Over win over Bangalore.  It is a reflection of how the two sides have played recently that the market has Hyderabad second favourites at 1.625/8 with Mumbai favoured at 1.564/7. It is hard to ignore that winning home record, so back Hyderabad for a narrow victory.

Top Hyderabad Batsman

There are two problems with backing an actual batsman in this Hyderabad team. The first is that none of them are in much form. The second is that the obvious candidate, Shikar Dhawan will not only be playing just his third game in almost two months, but will be at very short odds. Whilst it is unlikely that there will be the sort of upper order collapse that derailed them on Sunday, why not back their top runscorer, Perera, to top score at odds of 8.07/1.

Top Mumbai Batsman

Sharma's fine form makes him a short odds favourite in this market, whilst the odds on Tendulkar are never that good no matter how poor his form. Smith, though, is still a surprisingly generous 4.57/2 and his free-hitting style could come off on this slow scoring ground.

Recommended Bet:

Back Dwayne Smith at 4.57/2 to top score for Mumbai Indians.

The Volvo China Open: Big-hitters to overpower Binhai

Emiliano Grillo, one of The Punter's picks in China

Steve takes a good look at this week's event in China where he fancies big-hitting off the tee is essential...

Tournament History
Now in its 19th year, the Volvo China Open is organised by the China Golf Association. It's been co-sanctioned with the European Tour since 2004 and with the OneAsia Tour since 2009. You'll notice that no Asian Tour players, unless qualified via the ET, are in the field. The CGA and the AT have had an acrimonious relationship ever since the OneAsia Tour was created and the AT pulled out of this event in 2009.

Venue
Binhai Lake GC, Tianjin, China

Course Details
Par 72 - 7667 yards
Stroke index in 2012 - 71.12
Designed by Schmidt-Curley Design with the help of legendry designer, Pete Dye, Binhai is a long, flat, wind-swept, links-style track with wide fairways. There are 10 waterfront holes and small, undulating greens are protected by a number of Dye's trademark sleeper-faced bunkers.

The rough is dormant and far from penal and last year the greens were very slow, running at just 8.6 on the stimpmeter.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Info
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 6.30am on Thursday

Last Five Winners
2012 - Branden Grace -21
2011 - Nicolas Colsaerts -24
2010 - Y.E Yang -15
2009 - Scott Strange -8
2008 - Damien McGrane -10

What will it take to win the Volvo China Open?
Even though the tees were moved up on a number of holes last year, Binhai still played monstrously long and although relatively short hitters, Marcus Fraser and Francesco Molinari, finished in the top-ten, big-hitters held a significant advantage.

Winner, Branden Grace, and runner-up, Nicolas Colsaerts, worked their way clear of the field and fought out the event between themselves by round four and they ranked 5th and 1st respectfully for driving distance.

How you preformed on the par fives was key last year. Grace played the long holes in -11 and Colsaerts -10, whereas, 3rd and 4th placed finishers, Richard Finch and George Coetzee, both only managed -4.

It's not impossible for a short-hitter to win but conceding length for 72 holes on such a long track is a major disadvantage.

Is there an angle in?
With just one staging at Binhai, it's may be a bit early to give too much credence to any course correlations but a couple of events may offer a few clues...

Given that Grace went on to win the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last season and that Binhai is a links-style course, it makes sense to consider that event as a good guide and Ben Coley, who tips-up monster-hitter Alvaro Quiros in his excellent preview, makes a very sound case for form at the Doha GC, home of the Qatar Masters.

In-Play Tactics
There wasn't a huge disparity between morning and afternoon scores on either of the first two days last year with the averages for the four sessions ranging between 70.71 on Thursday morning and 72.36 on Friday morning, but those that were drawn early-late enjoyed a two stroke advantage over the two days.

As it's an exposed track, keeping an eye on the weather forecasts, and in particular the wind speeds, is a sensible tactic. At the time of writing, the forecasts suggest that those drawn late-early may get the better of it this year but that may well change before Thursday.

For in-running trading purposes, only the par 5 2nd hole played easier than the finishing hole (also a par 5) twelve months ago, but other than the 18th, the finish to Binhai is tough -holes 13,14,15,16 and 17 ranked 2nd, 5th, 9th, 7th and 3rd hardest respectfully.

Market Leaders
Favourite, Alex Noren, shot the course record of 63 on day three last year and he comes here fresh of a tied 6th finish at the Ballantine's Championship on Sunday, so his credentials are obvious enough but he led last week's event through 54 holes so there's a good chance he's mentally a bit jaded.

Of those to the fore in the market, defending champ, Branden Grace, looks the best bet. He was a comfortable winner last year (three strokes) and he impressed on his US Masters debut last time out but it's never easy to defend a title and he's just a shade short.

Recent Avantha Masters winner, Thomas Aiken, is currently trading as third favourite and he'll enjoy the test. Fairly long of the tee and a good wind player, I can see him going well but he doesn't win often enough to consider backing at just 21.020/1.

Selections
When I started looking at this event last week, one player stood out like a sore thumb - Paul Lawrie. Despite a disappointing opening round of 72, which left him languishing in a tie for 82nd, Lawrie managed to finish tied 14th and if anyone is suited to a lengthy links-style windy test, it's the Aberdonian Ryder Cupper and former Open Champion. There is, however, one huge negative - his putting.

With the rest of his game in good order, I was really hoping to see an improvement with the flatstick last week but he averaged 33.5 putts per round and you can tell by his blog entries that it's starting to get to him.

If he putts that badly here he has absolutely no chance so it's a big gamble but if he does finally find something, 48.047/1 is a massive price for the second highest ranked and most experienced player in the field.

Maximilian Kieffer was superb in Spain two weeks ago when he pushed Raphael Jacquelin all the way in a record-equalling nine-hole playoff. The German European Tour rookie is very long off the tee, showed in Spain that he handles windy conditions and looks a winner in waiting to me. I suspect he may well have been a shade shorter had this event immediately followed the Open de Espana and I was happy enough to take 61.0n/a in the Betfair Fixed Odds market.

Emiliano Grillo is another big-hitting rookie that looks capable of a breakthrough soon and after finishing inside the top-16 in four of his last five events, I thought he was also worth including before the off at 85.084/1.

Last and definitely least, I've felt compelled to throw a few more pounds at yet another monster-hitting rookie, Andreas Harto. Again, this test looks right up his street and hopefully, with the absence of too much rough, the young Dane can keep the far-too-common disaster holes of his card this week. He's developed a bad habit of making eights just lately and that's always going to hinder!

I'll be back later with my preview of the Wells Fargo Championship.

Selections:
Paul Lawrie @ 48.047/1
Maximilian Kieffer @ 61.0n/a (Betfair Fixed Odds)
Emiliano Grillo @ 85.084/1
Andreas Harto @ 250.0249/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Tuesday April 30

Ballinrobe takes place this evening

Timeform provide three best bets from Ballinrobe this evening.

Pigeon Creek (17:25) has failed to complete in 2 of his 3 starts over fences, but he was upsides eventual winner when falling at the last on debut at Thurles (3m) was a good second next time. Jumping frailties resurfaced last time, but with a clear round here he will go close. Coolnagorna Giggs and Clara More look to be threats.

Naas bumper winner Knocklong (17:55) won a 4-y-o maiden hurdle at Punchestown last May. He's yet to match that form over fences so far but looks the type to do better now going handicapping and he is taken to get the better of Uncle Tom Cobley and Moiqen.

Sterling Stuff (19:25) won a point in December and ran a better race over hurdles when finishing a staying-on fourth at Cork earlier in the month. He served notice that he had more to come in this sphere that day and is marginally preferred in this 13-runner field over recent winner Ballyreesode and Martin Cash.

Timeform Irish SmartPlays
All at Balllinrobe

Back Pigeon Creek in the 17:25
Back Knocklong in the 17:55
Back Sterling Stuff in the 19:25

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund > Cashback Special!

Place a pre-match First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer or Correct Score bet on Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund (Live on ITV, Tue 19:45) and if Cristiano Ronaldo scores the last goal in the game, we'll refund your stake!

Place a pre-match First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer or Correct Score bet on Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund (Live on ITV, Tue 19:45) and if Cristiano Ronaldo scores the last goal in the game, we'll refund your stake!

Following last week's 4-1 demolition job over Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund are as good as through to this season's Champions League Final.

Dortmund striker Robert Lewandowski celebrated all four goals on route to victory and the Polish striker now looks odds on to leave the club during the summer transfer, with Bayern Munich and Manchester City touted as a possible destinations. While Jurgen Klopp's side look all but guaranteed a spot in the Final, it's worth noting that Jose Mourinho won't go down without a fight and his disheveled Real Madrid side of a week ago will go all out to pin back their opponents from the outset.

We're got over 100 competitive pre-match markets and all the best in-play prices at kick-off. Bet now and if Ronaldo scores the last goal in the game, we'll refund losing stake on selected markets.

Football Cashback Special

Can I take part?

You can take part if your Betfair account is registered in the UK or Republic of Ireland. You can only take part using one account.

What do I need to do?

Place a Sportsbook First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer or Correct Score bet on the featured 'Cashback Special' match before kick-off.

Exchange bets and multiples are not included in this promotion.

How does the Cashback Special work?

If the stated refund trigger occurs (regular examples - Steven Gerrard to score anytime or Lionel Messi to score first in the selected game), and your first bet loses, we'll refund your loss, up to /€50. Own goals do not count. If your player selected as the refund trigger is not named in the playing squad for the selected match (either starting or a substitute), we will then treat any red card (in 90 minutes) as the refund trigger for the defined fixture.

Only your first bet placed counts.

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You will be credited within 72 hours of end of the featured match.

Betfair Standard Terms & Conditions apply.

The 80/20 Bet: Tuesday, Bath,14:20

Can this filly break through today?

Beautiful Bath is the venue for today's 80/20...

Today's 80/20 is Silverrica in the 14:20 at Bath. 

This filly finished third to Vectis at Chepstow last August. She held every chance two furlongs from home, but found the company to hot and weakened. I think she brings a solid level of form to the table and, should go close at a fair price in this maiden.

At present she is trading at 6.411/2 on the exchange.

Timeform Daily: Tuesday, Yarmouth 15:40

King Of Jazz will represent Michael Bell.

Timeform analyse a decent handicap over seven furlongs at Yarmouth on Tuesday...

Khubala did well at 3 yrs, winning 3 6f handicaps before fine effort in defeat in Ascot contest in October. Pedigree offers hope he'll stay 7f and could go on again this term.

Princess Of Orange won 1m Newmarket handicap on good to firm last summer. Well held in couple of stronger races as year ended and needs to pick up again on return with mark looking on stiff side now.

Spirit Of Sharjah is a hold-up performer who has fine turn of foot when on song. Fended off sole rival in a 7f minor event at Kempton (7f) in January, but not in the same form since, and others make greater appeal.

Karam Albaari came up short in pattern/listed races at 3 yrs after making winning debut at Kempton (6f) in September 2010. Missed 2012 and can only be watched on return.

Noble Citizen didn't quite kick on from Goodwood second early last season. Has dropped in the weights and should make presence felt in some good handicaps this term but may need this.

Swiss Cross is now 5 lb below last winning mark and better than bare result both starts back on turf this month, finishing well behind Ajjaadd at Epsom latest. Leading claims.

Galician has gained all 3 wins over 6f but has stamina for this trip and ran a blinder when touched off by York Glory at Pontefract last week. Leading claims from same mark if overcoming highest draw.

King Of Jazz has run in some good handicaps last 3 seasons, and though yet to win one, has shaped well both starts this year at Doncaster over 6f. Just as effective at 7f and well worth considering.

Fast Finian has done well on AW for this yard, winning 3 times in 2012. Some good efforts in defeat since latest success but must carry that form back over to turf now. Blinkers tried.

Bayleyf improved throughout 2011, winning 6f nursery at Glorious Goodwood. Been given big chance by the handicapper after quiet 2012 and excuses for Lingfield defeat in January.

Comrade Bond has gll 3 wins over C&D but no great record fresh and may just need this.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. King Of Jazz
2. Galician
3. Swiss Cross

Timeform Verdict: Galician ran a blinder at Pontefract and Swiss Cross will find an opening again before long, but perhaps this could be the day King Of Jazz gets an elusive first handicap success following on from 2 eye-catching efforts at Doncaster. 

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Gordon Elliott: My thoughts on Rocky Wednesday and Soweheard at Ballinrobe on Tuesday night

Paul Carberry takes the ride on both Gordon's runners

Punchestown brought the curtain down on a superb 2012/13 National Hunt season on Saturday for Cullentra House Stables, and Gordon Elliott sends his first two runners of the new season to Ballinrobe on Tuesday evening. Read the Betfair Ambassador's exclusive views on the chances of his two runners here...

18:25 Ballinrobe - Rocky Wednesday

He can be a bit of quirky character at times, but there is no doubt that on a going day he has a lot of ability. His two runs, after an excellent second in the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown, were quite disappointing but he bounced back and ran an encouraging race at Wexford on St. Patrick's Day, finishing fourth of 12 runners behind Gates Of Rome only beaten 9 lengths at the line. That race was over 2m4f and that might just stretch his stamina on heavy ground so we are dropping him back to two miles today with the ground forecast to be in a similar condition as Wexford. 

On ratings he looks to have quite a bit to do still as the handicapper left him unchanged on a mark of 121 after the race at Wexford and he'll need to improve. With the likes of Byerley Babe, recent Punchestown winner Beau Michael and Donal Coffey's Top Madam all in opposition today he looks to have a stiff task.

Paul Carberry is booked to take the ride this evening, and I'd be hopeful that if he puts in a similar performance to his run at Wexford that he could grab a place, but he's not one to put full confidence in as he never seems to run the same race twice. 

18:55 Ballinrobe - Soweheard

He's done well in point-to-points and had his first run in that sphere at the start of the year which he managed to win at Nenagh, keeping on nicely for Jamie Codd at the finish to register at two length victory. He won another point at Maralin in March, and then fell in his next two points when starting as favourite. His last outing was at Loughbrickland earlier this month, where he finished second only beaten two lengths in the end when sent off favourite. This will be his first start under rules, and having had plenty of point-to-point experience at this stage I'd be hoping that will stand him in good stead today. 

All of his point-to-points have been over three miles, and with this race being run over 2m4f I'd be hopeful that the drop back in trip won't be an inconvenience for him. Some of his pointing form has worked out quite well subsequently, with a few horses that were in behind him going on to run some nice races under rules.

He appreciates a bit of give in the ground, so the forecast soft to heavy ground shouldn't pose any issues, and I think he has conditions in his favour to run a nice race.  We have Paul Carberry booked to take the ride too, and if this horse can overcome his lack of experience under rules I think he could run well.

Betfair World Snooker Tips: Murphy rates a cracking trade at insulting odds

Judd Trump backers have struggled lately

The pick of today's quarter-finals involves the 2005 champion and the 2011 runner-up. The ever popular Judd Trump starts as hot favourite, but Paul Krishnamurty reckons the market is badly wrong...

In what has been a far from vintage renewal of the Betfair World Championship, Shaun Murphy has played as well as anyone and 'The Magician' rates outstanding value to upset the odds against Judd Trump in their quarter-final match. Prior to his victory over Graeme Dott in the previous round, I recommended backing Murphy at 17.016/1 to win the tournament with a view towards laying back for profit later. Rather than even consider such a defensive move just yet, however, I would advise anyone not already on to take the 13.5n/a currently on offer.  

Opposing Trump on the handicap has gone wrong in the last two matches, albeit narrowly, but the strategy has worked wonders all year and demands perseverance. Judd hasn't yet reached a final in 2013, nor beaten a player of Murphy's calibre. In fact the only top-16 player he's beaten this year in a main event is Barry Hawkins, and that needed a thrilling comeback and deciding frame. An army of odds-on backers will doubtless point towards his typically flamboyant snooker against Dominic Dale and Marco Fu, but the truth is both spurned plenty of chances. Equally, give a heavy scorer like Trump more than one chance per frame and he'll punish you.

Murphy is vastly superior to either Dale or Fu and, if given regular chances, will likely take them. He's been cueing well all season and been an almost permanent feature in the latter stages of big events, reaching the semis at the China Open and Betfair Masters plus the UK Championship final. On each occasion he lost to one of the world's top-two players, Mark Selby and Neil Robertson, so he may be breathing a sigh of relief that they're both out already. 

The draw could easily open right up for Murphy, who would be a heavy odds-on favourite against anyone else left in the tournament besides Trump, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Ding Junhui. Neither of the latter are playing flawless snooker, so it's not unimaginable that Shaun could even be favourite by the semi-final stage. For now of course we'll just be happy to get through and, if he does, the market will afford greater respect after beating a big name like Trump.

Recommended bet

Back Shaun Murphy to beat Judd Trump 6u @ 2.915/8

Already advised

4u Shaun Murphy to win outright @ 17.016/1

If not already on... 

Back Shaun Murphy 4u @ 13.5n/a

Premier League: Betting.Betfair's team of the year

Bale: Double award winner. But did he make the B.B team?

In the wake of last night's PFA awards ceremony, which saw Gareth Bale walk off with both Player of the Year and Young Player of the Year, we asked the B.B football writers for their votes on the Premier League team of the season (in a 4-4-2 purely for the sake of simplicity). The votes have been counted...

Goalkeeper: David De Gea
The great and good of the B.B football writing community agreed with the Premier League players and voted in the Manchester United stopper as best goalkeeper - but only just ahead of Sunderland's Simon Mignolet, who has impressed this season. There was also support for Stoke's Asmir Begovic and Tottenham's Hugo Lloris.

Right-back: Pablo Zabaleta
A clear run here for the City full-back who was the obvious selection for the position, although his Manchester counterpart Rafael also received a few votes after a very decent season for the champions.

Centre-back: Jan Vertonghen
The classy Tottenham defender received the most votes from the writers after a hugely impressive first season in the Premier League - at both ends of the pitch. As well as becoming a first choice at the back for AVB's men, the Belgian has weighed in with six goals, including a peach of a strike at Swansea.

Centre-back: Rio Ferdinand
Competition for the second centre-back slot was fierce, with plenty of votes for both Swansea's Ashley Williams and Manchester City's Matija Nastasic, who have both performed very well during the course of the 2012/13 campaign. But Ferdinand edged out the pair after rolling back the years in a championship winning year for United.

Left-back: Leighton Baines
Every vote but one was for the Everton full-back with the indie-band haircut, who has had a storming season for the Goodison club, leading the way in the Premier League for chances created. The other vote? Ben Lyttleton opted for Saints' starlet Luke Shaw. 

Right midfield: Juan Mata
While Chelsea spent big money adding creativity to their midfield in the summer, in the shape of Eden Hazard and Oscar, it is the Spaniard who has been the standout performer at Stamford Bridge this season, pulling the strings and chipping in with 18 goals in all competitions. A standout pick of the writers.

Central midfield: Michael Carrick
Arsene Wenger's choice player of the season, it appears this was the season when football as a whole finally woke up to the ability of Michael Carrick. The United midfielder has been a model of consistency this season, both with the ball and defensively, supporting his centre-backs superbly. An overwhelming choice for the holding role.

Central midfield: Santi Cazorla
While the players plumped for Eden Hazard in midfield, our writers opted for the Arsenal schemer to support Carrick in the centre of the park. The pint sized Spaniard has been the driving force behind Arsenal's bid for Champions League qualification, with his incisive passing.

Left midfield: Gareth Bale
While he rarely actually starts out on the left these days, Bale was the only choice for the position after an absolutely superb season. The Welshman has hit 29 goals in all competitions (including internationals) and last night became only the third player to win both PFA awards.

Forward: Robin van Persie
Another easy selection for the writers, with the Dutchman leading the Premier League scoring charts with 25 (from a total of 34). It's been a wonderful first season at Old Trafford for Van Persie, with most agreeing he was the key to United's title victory.

Forward: Luis Suarez:
It was a tougher battle for the second striker position, with the controversial Liverpool man only just edging out Swansea's Michu, according to the votes from the writers. But while recent headlines have focused on biting, there is no denying it's been a great campaign for Suarez in what has been a season of promise for Brendan Rodgers' men.

Do you agree with the selections? Let us know by commenting!

Premier League on Betfair: Villa smash six past Sunderland to land 659/1 wagers

Paul Lambert's Villa put six past Sunderland tonight

A crucial game at the bottom of the Premier League table ended with some massive odds landed in various markets. Mike Norman has the details...

Aston Villa are 9.617/2 in the Relegation market after thrashing Sunderland 6-1 at a vibrant Villa Park this evening.

Paul Lambert's men were generally available to back at 2.35/4 to win the game, and trading at around the 3.55/2 mark for relegation prior to kick-off, but put in a sensational display to move level with tonight's opponents and Newcastle on 37 points, five clear of Wigan who have a game in hand.

But if you thought the result itself was huge news then consider the massive odds matched on the Betfair exchange.

Villa defender Ron Vlaar opened the scoring, much to the delight of those who backed him at 70.069/1 in the First Goalscorer market. Further goals from Andreas Weimann, Gabriel Agbonlahor, and a hat-trick from Christian Benteke completed the rout with Benteke being matched at 36.035/1 to score three goals or more.

But the biggest odds matched on the night were undoubtedly the 660.0659/1 matched on Villa to win 6-1 in the Correct Score 2 market.

And even a Sending Off - matched at 7.87/1 In-Play - was extremely popular and rewarded those who banked on a sixth red card in nine meetings between Villa and Sunderland.

The result means Wigan - who conceded a last minute equaliser to Spurs on Saturday - have a mountain to climb in their quest to mix the euphoria of a FA Cup Final appearance with the desperation of trying to remain a Premier League outfit. The Latics are 1.4840/85 favourites to join QPR and Reading in the Championship next season.

To be relegated

Wigan (32 pts) - 1.4840/85
Newcastle (37 pts) - 8.88/1
Aston Villa (37 pts) - 9.617/2
Sunderland (37 pts) - 18.017/1
Norwich (38 pts) - 21.020/1

2000 Guineas Memories: Can't stop the Rock

Rock of Gibraltar (right) cruises to the Irish 2000 Guineas

A great injustice or a triumph of application over ability? Keith Melrose looks back to Rock of Gibraltar's win over Hawk Wing 11 years ago...

In the wider sporting world, the legacy of Rock of Gibraltar is still being felt most keenly in football. The dispute over his ownership between John Magnier and Sir Alex Ferguson raged for well over a year after the horse had run his last race and culminated in Magnier, along with business partner JP McManus, selling their stake in Manchester United to Malcolm Glazer. It would be the single biggest acquisition Glazer made in his gradual takeover of the club, which to this day causes division among supporters. Whether you find the green-and-gold scarves waved at Old Trafford to be an admirable protest against football-as-business or just whining hypocrisy by spoiled fans, you can trace its roots back to Rock of Gibraltar.

Full pieces could be- and have been- written on the feud alone: the nature of the phone call that led to Ferguson coming to own part of Rock of Gibraltar; the infamous '99 questions' put to the Manchester United board by Magnier and McManus in what appeared an act of brinkmanship to deter Ferguson from pursuing litigation; the affair wouldn't look wholly out of place in a John Grisham novel.

The only thing that seems certain about Ferguson's part-acquisition of Rock of Gibraltar, according to Scottish writer Martin Hannan who published a book on the horse, is that an act of mischief by Magnier played a significant role. 

The honour of making the speech at the Gimcrack Dinner, held annually at York racecourse in December, has traditionally gone to the winning owner in that year's Gimcrack Stakes. In 1999 following Mull of Kintyre's success in the Gimcrack, the famously laconic Magnier tried to defer responsibility to his friend Ferguson; this idea was turned down by the organisers. Therefore, as the 2001 renewal of the race approached, Magnier spotted a way to get his own back through his promising Railway Stakes winner, a Danehill colt named Rock of Gibraltar.

From a racing perspective, the Gimcrack is a good place to pick up Rock of Gibraltar's story. He came into the race having won an early-season maiden and suffering a luckless run in the Coventry prior to the Railway Stakes. He was first registered with Horse Racing Ireland as part-owned by Ferguson on the 17th of August and on the 22nd of that month, in Ferguson's red-and-white silks, he would show his true promise for the first time in accounting for Ho Choi by three lengths. 

Rock of Gibraltar lost on his next start, albeit to the similarly high-class Dubai Destination in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, but he would from there go on one of the most famous runs in recent Flat racing history.

In the Grand Criterium at the Arc meeting, Rock of Gibraltar showed a blistering turn of foot to blow away an admittedly substandard field. The visual impression of that performance, as well as another dearth of opposition, saw Rock of Gibraltar start at odds on for the Dewhurst Stakes on his final start as a two-year-old. He won, but it was hard work: fellow Ballydoyle colts Landseer and Tendulkar were both within a neck, though the bare facts don't convey the troubled passage Rock of Gibraltar and Mick Kinane had to suffer. 

As 2001 moved into 2002, and Ferguson eventually got to make his speech at the Gimcrack Dinner, Rock of Gibraltar found himself third in the Ballydoyle pecking order despite the fact he'd won two of the premier juvenile races of the year. The undefeated Johannesburg had been Timeform's Champion Two-Year-Old, followed by National Stakes winner Hawk Wing. Aidan O'Brien's inclination, then as it is now, was to keep his best apart early in the season, preferring the Kentucky Derby for Johannesburg (who had won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile), the 2000 Guineas for the lauded Hawk Wing and the Prix d'Essai des Poulains for Rock of Gibraltar. However, after some reportedly sparkling work in the week before Newmarket, Rock of Gibraltar was allowed to take his chance against Hawk Wing.

Kinane, who had ridden Rock of Gibraltar on all of his starts at two, was suspended for the Guineas, and might well have partnered Hawk Wing anyway. Instead, Johnny Murtagh took the ride on Rock of Gibraltar, while Jamie Spencer partnered Hawk Wing. Ballydoyle's first string was the strong favourite at 6/4, while Rock of Gibraltar was sent off at 9/1, behind both Craven winner King of Happiness and French raider Massalani as well as his stablemate.

It's often said that ground is racing's great leveller, but on the Flat the draw can be- and frequently is- a more decisive factor. The 2000 Guineas of 2002 probably wasn't the purest example of that theory, but it is arguably one of the most infamous in recent memory. 

As the field left the stalls, they split initially into three main groups. Rock of Gibraltar, drawn highest of all in stall 22, was always going to be part of the far-side group. Spencer on Hawk Wing had a more difficult call, having broken from stall 10. He chose the near-side group; it was a decision that would play a vital part in the denouement.

Although unbeknownst to those watching the field in real-time rather than a TV screen, by halfway the race was starting to look lop-sided. Overhead shots showed that the far-side group was three or four lengths ahead of the near-side group. Rock of Gibralatar was poised in the centre of the leading bunch; Hawk Wing, though perfectly covered up behind the vanguard on the near-side, already had a bit to do.

It was as they approached the Dip that the impending drama started to unfold. Murtagh was expertly picking Rock of Gibraltar's way through the leading group, easing past Free Handicap winner Twilight Blues and getting to long-time leader, Greenham winner Redback, well over a furlong from home.

As Rock of Gibraltar took the overall lead, the strong-travelling Hawk Wing was just being angled out by Spencer, who appeared for all the world to be unaware that he was in arrears to the far-side group. Once belatedly unleashed, Hawk Wing showed a marvellous turn of foot, making up the lengths he'd conceded to Redback with 50 yards to go but always looking odds-against to reach the strong-staying Rock of Gibraltar, who prevailed by an ever-diminishing neck.

There was no doubt that Hawk Wing shaped as though the better horse on the day. He'd won his 'side' by five lengths (from overall sixth Aramram) and had passed the winner within a few strides of crossing the finish line. 

Spencer rightly received some of the blame for overdoing the waiting tactics, but at the time just as much centred on the idea that worse ground on the near side had caused Hawk Wing's defeat. Whether or not there was anything in that, the evidence points to it being a secondary, even tertiary concern. So often when there is a perceived track bias it turns out to be self-fulfilling, as the runners congregate on the preferred side, duly taking the pace with them in most instances. Redback was a good example: on breaking from stall 16, Darryll Holland made a beeline to the far rail, the upshot of which was a stronger pace on that side. 

There would never be another meeting between Rock of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing, the pair deliberately kept apart for the rest of the season. Hawk Wing's luck got no better as the year wore on, with a win in the Eclipse the only real bright point among a number of narrow defeats. He would have his day in the sun as a four-year-old, but that's another story for another time...

Where Hawk Wing's season was one of continued frustration, Rock of Gibraltar's could hardly have been smoother. With Kinane back in the saddle, he would win the Irish 2000 Guineas (recording one of the easiest successes you're ever likely to see in a classic), St James' Palace, Sussex Stakes and the Prix du Moulin, bringing his winning streak to seven Group 1s by the time he travelled to Arlington for that year's Breeders' Cup Mile.

The 2002 Breeders' Cup Mile couldn't have gone much worse for Rock of Gibraltar, who broke sluggishly and was left well off a steady pace, was hampered by the stricken Landseer turning in and failed to reel in Domedriver despite delivering a late thrust down the short Arlington straight.  

It was Kinane's turn to face the critics (Andy Beyer referred to him as a 'pinhead... any reasonably competent American jockey would have won easily'), but the fact is that he, like Jamie Spencer at Newmarket, was chiefly a victim of circumstance: his only real failing was not adapting to the adverse run of the race. 

Comments like Beyer's came not just because Mick Kinane was caught napping, but also due to the perceived invincibility of Rock of Gibraltar, who was retired a few weeks after Arlington. They might have been correct on the first point, but the second not so: the fact is that, for all his stellar race record, Rock of Gibraltar's form didn't stack up in the same way other as other recent champions. His final Timeform rating of 133 is 3 lb lower than Hawk Wing, 7 lb lower than Sea The Stars and a stone below Frankel.

Ratings, though, are only part of the make-up of a champion racehorse. Few who saw the 2002 Guineas, or the 2003 Lockinge, would assert Rock of Gibraltar to be a more able horse than Hawk Wing, but you can bet the majority would rather have owned 'the Rock'. As John Magnier said to Irish broadcaster RTE while Rock of Gibraltar was on his famous winning streak: 'He is a tough, durable, versatile horse... And Alex is lucky'.

понедельник, 29 апреля 2013 г.

1000 Guineas: Moth added to Newmarket field

Who will land the 1000 Guineas?

Aidan O'Brien's Moth has been supplemented for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday...

Beaten in both starts as a juvenile, the daughter of Galileo appeared much improved when running out a most impressive winner of a Curragh maiden on her three-year-old debut at the Curragh in early April.

O'Brien revealed afterwards the first fillies' Classic of the season would be considered and she has now been added to the field at a cost of 30,000.

The master of Ballydoyle also has Magical Dream and Snow Queen in the mix for the 1000 Guineas.

Sir Henry Cecil's hugely impressive Nell Gwyn scorer Hot Snap is the ante-post favourite and features among 18 confirmations.

Charlie Hills' star filly Just The Judge remains in the hunt, as does the Mikel Delzangles-trained French challenger What A Name.

Richard Hannon could saddle Fred Darling winner Maureen and Nell Gwyn runner-up Sky Lantern, but one significant absentee is William Haggas' Rosdhu Queen.

Unbeaten as a juvenile but beaten into fourth when seemingly failing to stay seven furlongs in the Fred Darling, the three-year-old is set to revert to sprint distances.

Haggas said: "We think she'll be better over shorter and we've decided to give up on the Guineas.

"She worked at the weekend and is in great form.

"I think that race (Fred Darling) has done a lot of good, but she needs to be better than that at a mile and I can't see it.

"She has a lot of speed, she is good at going fast, so let's use that as a major weapon."

Asked where Rosdhu Queen could run next, Haggas said: "I haven't got as far as that yet. I'll get there."

Leading Irish handler Dermot Weld has Big Break and Rasmeyaa in the field, while other contenders include Roz, Ollie Olga and Diaminda.

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Racing News: Burke ends Hunt Ball association

Hunt Ball will no longer be trained by Kieran Burke.

Colourful owner Anthony Knott is seeking a new trainer for Hunt Ball after Keiran Burke asked him to remove the horse from his yard...

Burke guided Hunt Ball as he completed a meteoric rise through the ranks, starting life BHA rated 69 back in November 2011 before embarking on a eight-race winning spree that saw him rise to his current mark of 162.

However, Hunt Ball's campaign did not work out quite as planned last term, with the gelding pulled up on his return in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before trying an extended three miles and a furlong in the Argento Chase in the hope he would be able to take up a Cheltenham Gold Cup entry.

He failed to stay on that occasion and Knott decided to run him in the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival rather than supplementing him for the Ryanair Chase.

In contravention of British Horseracing Authority rules, Hunt Ball sported an advert for bookmakers Paddy Power on his hindquarters that day, resulting in a BHA hearing for both Knott and Burke.

Burke said: "I asked Mr Knott to take Hunt Ball away and he has just gone today.

"It was a very hard decision as he's the best horse I've trained and possibly the best I will ever train, but I've got to look after myself and think of my career.

"I wish the horse all the best and I hope someone else will have a lot of fun with him because he's a good horse and he deserves to be running in the right races for him."

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Timeform Notebook: Galileo to Rock rivals

Our Notebook horse was in action at Sandown

A three-year-old in action at Sandown on Friday caught our eye and gained inclusion into the Timeform Notebook...

Sandown staged an informative two-day meeting last week and there were plenty of eye-catching performances. One horse that particularly stood out, in terms of long-term potential, was the David Wachman-trained Galileo Rock. Making his seasonal reappearance, Galileo Rock contested the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown, displaying useful form to finish a close-up third behind Irish compatriots Sugar Boy and Eye of The Storm, and he looks like the type of horse that will come into his own when his stamina is fully drawn out.

Galileo Rock made only the two starts as a juvenile - both races taking place over a mile - and it wasn't a surprise to see the stoutly-bred son of Galileo appreciate the extra two furlongs and the stiff uphill finish he was presented with in the Classic Trial, devouring the ground late on to finish on the heels of the leaders and pull well clear of the rest of the field. This year's Classic Trial looked like an intriguing race beforehand as it pitted plenty of unexposed, exciting youngsters from either side of the Irish Sea against each other, and there is no reason to question the substance of the form, particularly with the likeable and reliable standard-bearer Sugar Boy narrowly prevailing.

If Galileo Rock is to contest a Classic, the St Leger would appear to be more of a realistic target than the Derby - where he would probably lack the speed of some of the main protagonists - but an ideal race in the interim, should connections go down this route, would appear to be the Queen's Vase, the two-mile event at Royal Ascot that is restricted to three-year-olds. Galileo Rock would certainty have more inherent ability than many of the horses who usually contest that race and he promises to stay the trip.

2013 Flat Notebook:

Jamaican Bolt - Of interest in five-furlong handicaps with cut in the ground.
Mombasa - Of interest in handicaps, particularly if stepped up to one and a half miles.
Loving Spirit - One to note in seven furlong or one-mile handicaps.
Border Legend - Remains unexposed and one to bear in mind for handicaps.
Galileo Rock - A strong stayer who can make an impact at Group level when the emphasis is on stamina.

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