Tolworth Hurdle: Williams courting success with Minstrel

Court Minstrel can provide Evan Williams with his third Grade 1 success as a trainer

Keith Melrose looks towards the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday...

Whether it's down to the race being perceived as a weaker Grade 1, or the fact that it's seen to come after the Lord Mayor's show following a glut of quality racing over the busy Christmas period, the Tolworth Hurdle doesn't receive the same level of anticipation afforded to other Grade 1s. 

This neglect is definitely harsh, if not completely unwarranted. It's true that only three winners of the Tolworth since 1990 have gone on to win a Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle, but the level of subsequent success overall is about what you'd expect for a Grade 1 of its type. Winners this century such as Monsignor, Thisthatandtother and Noland have all gone on to make their presence felt in major races, while 2012 victor Captain Conan looks a high-class chaser in the making on the evidence of this season so far.

This year's Tolworth should be more keenly anticipated than most renewals, with the two-mile novice hurdle division in Britain yet to really take shape. In the group of 13 currently entered to run on Saturday, about half a dozen could stake a reasonable claim to sit prominently in the Supreme Novices' betting come mid-March. At present, none of them are any shorter than 25/1, that being the price of the Jeremy Scott-trained Melodic Rendezvous. He was runner-up to Champagne Fever in the Punchestown Champion Bumper in April and showed the benefit of his hurdling debut to win at Cheltenham last month in a race as competitive as you'd imagine. He clearly has the potential to go far and is well worthy of consideration for his burgeoning yard.

Melodic Rendezvous might be ahead on perceived chance in the Supreme, but on Timeform ratings he plays second fiddle to Court Minstrel. Evan Williams' gelding has had more racing and possesses a fairly uninspiring win record for a would-be Grade 1 winner, but there are extenuating circumstances. He was fourth in a very competitive renewal of the Grade 2 bumper at the Grand National meeting and has created a strong impression on both starts over hurdles to date, winning an above-average contest at Cheltenham in October before catching the eye in no uncertain terms in a Grade 2 there at the Open Meeting. Held up in a messy race, Court Minstrel nevertheless looked a strong threat before meeting interference approaching the last, eventually finishing a close third. Court Minstrel probably shaped best that day and, considering it was Christmas Hurdle third Dodging Bullets and subsequent winner River Maigue that finished ahead of him, he can be taken as open to considerable improvement.

Perhaps the most interesting contender is Poet, a smart Flat performer who made his hurdling debut just a couple of weeks ago at Newbury. He won a fairly pedestrian race for the track that day, but came away in good style, certainly showing enough to suggest he'll prove at least a useful hurdler. The only doubt is whether this step up in grade has been taken too early.

No big jumps race these days is complete without contenders from the Nicholls and Henderson yards and both are doubly represented at this stage. Nicholls trains For Two, a juvenile recruited from France prior to finishing second in attritional conditions at Aintree, and Caid du Berlais, second in a listed event at Auteuil last time for Robert Collet. Both are interesting selections to tackle a Grade 1 so soon from Nicholls' typically powerful team.

Similar comments probably apply to the Henderson pair of Golden Hoof and Royal Boy. The former has won a couple of ordinary events- albeit at good tracks- and will need to step up facing this much stiffer test. Royal Boy has clearly been well regarded all along, fetching €150,000 after winning a point in Ireland and doing little to damage his reputation when a close second to Melodic Rendezvous at Cheltenham last month. Of the two, he's the more likely to be his stable's first-string.

All this is not to mention either the useful (but untrustworthy) Flat performer Buthelezi or unbeaten Pendra, but that just goes to underline the competitiveness of this year's Tolworth. It would be too difficult to pick a bet, were it not for the presence of Court Minstrel. As implied above, he still has a Timeform 'large P' which, coupled with his already very useful rating, would put him up with the best novice hurdlers seen out this season. It looks as though the bare facts of his reverse at Cheltenham have clouded this, so there could be plenty of juice in his price for the Tolworth on Saturday; while you're at it, a small investment in the Supreme betting at upwards of 33/1 could be worth it, too.

Recommendation:

Back Court Minstrel in the Tolworth Hurdle
Back Court Minstrel @ 36.035/1 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!