Two and a Half Goals Column: Expect Spurs to score plenty in Fulham win

AVB's Spurs should run in a few goals in beating Fulham

The Inside Man analyses four games from this weekend's football action and decides whether we'll see Over, or Under 2.5 Goals...

Saturday

Aston Villa v QPR

QPR have put themselves in with a chance of survival. But last week's win at Southampton will mean nothing if they don't now beat Aston Villa. Quite simply, it's another must-win game for Rangers, and that means goals.

After a cagey start to his Loftus Road tenure, Harry Redknapp soon realised his team needed to be more attacking to get the points they need, and so the shackles came off. This has resulted in 14 goals being scored in their last four matches.

Given Aston Villa's defensive record, it's inconceivable this game could end 0-0. The Villains have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 matches, a run I expect to continue against a team with so much to play for.

Villa should also find the net, with only Manchester City managing to hold them at bay in their last seven games. Moreover, 11 out of Villa's last 13 matches have been high-scoring.

Both teams should net here, and with 1-1 an unacceptable result for QPR, I expect at least one more goal to follow.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0421/20

Derby County v Leicester

With little hope of making automatic promotion, every point is crucial now for Leicester as they look to hold on to their play-off position. And that should mean taking a cautious approach away to a Rams side with a strong home record.

As for Derby, they too need another few points to be certain of their survival. They sit six points above the drop zone, and so won't be taking any unnecessary risks that might drag them down into a relegation battle.

So for both sides, a point is a decent result. Defeat is the enemy here. And that shows in their last few results, with Derby's last three home games producing just three goals, while Leicester's last three games on the road could also conjure-up just the three goals.

In fact, each of Leicester's last four away games have been low-scoring, supporting the argument that they are looking to hang onto what they have as they go into these games.

Hence the draw looks a strong runner here, and a low-scoring one at that.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9110/11

Sunday

Tottenham v Fulham

Red cards aside, this looks like a formality of a win of Tottenham. In fact, it should just be a case of how many, if things go to form.

When these teams met back on December 1, Spurs came away from Craven Cottage with a 3-0 victory at a canter. And since then, the gap has widened with Andre Villas-Boas having had more time to impose his philosophy on Spurs, resulting in a surge up the table, while Fulham have become a side doing just enough to stay up.

The Stats also indicate a mismatch. Tottenham's home record is impressive, with just two losses at White Hart Lane. Fulham's away record though is miserable, showing just two wins from 14 on the road.

Fulham have conceded more goals than any other side in the top half of the table. That alone tells you they are only there because of their ability to score a few as well, with Dimitar Berbatov their saviour this season in that respect.

Spurs meanwhile are in a rich vein of goalscoring form, largely thanks to Gareth Bale's seven goals in his last six games.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.695/7

Dundee v Dundee United

Dundee's interim boss John Brown has all the motivation he needs to get his side up for this. A few decent results could just see him secure the job full time, and what better way to do that than by beating their city rivals.

A 2-1 win over St Mirren and a 1-1 draw with Inverness show Brown has had an immediate impact since his appointment, especially in tackling the defensive problems that have left the team in such deep relegation trouble.

And now could be the perfect time for Dundee to get revenge for three defeats to their closest rivals already this season, with United now seemingly going into a late season slumber. Two 0-0 draws in their last two outings suggest United may have knocked-off early in the league, in which they have nothing to play for, with all thoughts probably now focused on their upcoming Scottish Cup final.

With United having scored eight of the nine goals between these sides this season, any lack of commitment on their behalf would surely be fatal for goal-backers, and also offer Dundee the chance of revenge that they'll be desperately looking for.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.0621/20