The Punter's In-Play Blog: It's too close to call in Qatar, says The Punter

Sergio Garcia and Martin Kaymer, co-leading in Qatar

Our man's keeping his powder dry in Qatar, where it's very tight at the top, with Ryder Cup pals, Sergio Garcia and Martin Kaymer, heading the market as well as the field but he's already added two more picks in the States...

16:00 - January 25, 2013
The first thing I have to do is make an apology. As you'll see from the bets listed below, at the Qatar Masters, I've backed Ricardo Santos, who was completely unmentioned in my preview and is now tied for the lead!

I wrote about the correlation between Doha and Ocenico Victoria Golf Course in Portugal in the said preview and after it was published, I received this tweet form a guy named Luke, @GoodLuke.

"Hi Steve, if there's correlation with Oceanico Victoria Ricardo Santos is a good e/w bet. His home course, 4th last week."

I had no idea that Ocenico Victoria was Santos' home course before Luke's tweet; otherwise he'd have been backed and covered in the preview. I'd been quite impressed with him in the mix last week and I'd considered backing him anyway, so once I'd read Luke's tweet, I had to get him onside.

If you're not already on Twitter, I'd really give it some consideration. Many pros tweet lots of useful info and there are a number of extremely knowledgeable and approachable golf judges on there too. I'm old enough not to be that big on change, I've had the same slippers for three years, but I have to admit,Twitter is proving to be an essential tool.

Anyway, onto to the event itself and although Santos ended day one on top, not everything went smoothly. With the exception of Garth Mulroy, all my picks disappointed to varying degrees and yet another error on the European Tour website's leaderboard cost me a few quid.

I thought Michael Hoey looked a fair price at 90.089/1 as he approached the last four holes on a score of -4. He played those last four in level par, which was a bit disappointing, but then half-an-hour after he'd finished his score changed to -2! I hadn't had much on but it's so irritating. I won't keep moaning about it, I can bore myself half to death with the subject, but player's scores are often wrong and barely a day goes by without it just giving up the ghost for long periods. This game's hard enough without scores being posted incorrectly!

So what now? With two rounds to go the leaderboard is crowded and the betting still open. Somewhat irritatingly, last week's selection, Martin Kaymer, who played poorly in Abu Dhabi, where he'd won three times previous, is playing markedly better here, at a venue he's never played well at before! He's in the logjam at the top on -9 and he's the favourite, albeit only just.

Alongside Kaymer are Marcus Fraser, Santos (who missed a couple of short putts today) and Sergio Garcia, who trades at just a fraction bigger than the German. If I had to back one of the two market leaders it would be Garcia. Kaymer said he got a bit lucky with his putter today and Garcia looked superb. The Spaniard's course form is far stronger than Kaymer's too but we've seen it all before with Sergio. He can very quickly go from looking brilliant to struggling and I'm going to leave the event alone for now. There are plenty of dangers lurking and there's still a very long way to go.

Thorbjorn Olesen and George Coetzee are in the group of players just one shot off the lead and the likes of Branden Grace Paul Casey, Alex Noren, Justin Rose and even Louis Oosthuizen, five back on -4, are still in this, along with a myriad of lesser lights. Keeping the powder dry is the only logical thing to do.

It feels very strange to be halfway through the European action before the US event has even started and I'm looking forward to the Farmers Insurance Open getting underway. And as I did in Qatar, I've added to my original pick before the off.

I wrote in my preview about the likely drift on Phil Mickelson, and lo and behold, out he walked. I put what I thought was a very ambitious small bet at 22.021/1 into the market and it's been easily matched. And I've also added Justin Leonard...

After a dry spell, the course is reportedly running faster than normal this year and given the extra run on the fairways, that should help the shorter hitters. Leonard was never out of the top-ten last year, eventually finishing tied 8th and that was his first appearance in the event since finishing 5th in 2008, after starting day two in a tie for 123rd! I've had a small bet to win at 560.0559/1 and very unusually for me, I've had a stake-saving wager in the top-ten market at 17.5n/a and a very small play for a top-five finish too, at 55.054/1.

Qatar Masters Pre-Event Selections
Paul Lawrie @ 42.041/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ 55.054/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 100.099/1
Garth Mulroy @ 280.0279/1

Ricardo Santos @ 240.0239/1 - Added after the preview was posted

In-Running Bet:
Michael Hoey @ 90.089/1

Farmers Insurance Open Pre-Event Selections:
Bubba Watson @ 17.5n/a
Phil Mickelson @ 22.021/1
Justin Leonard @ 560.0559/1
Justin Leonard Top-Five @ 55.054/1 & Top-Ten @ 17.5n/a

I'll be back tomorrow afternoon after round three in Qatar.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter