Will the conditions favour Group C favourites Colombia?

Will the conditions favour Group C favourites Colombia?

By Michael Gales Dec 19, 2013

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Colombia are the clear 2014 World Cup Group C favourites to progress into the last 16 ahead of Japan, the Ivory Coast and Greece. How much will the travel and conditions benefit the South Americans and hinder the rest?

Colombia: Are they undervalued?

Fifa Ranking: 4th

Best Finish: Last 16 (1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 932^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 21.000*

In a weak Group C Colombia are the 1.278* favourites to reach the 2014 World Cup knockout stages for just the second time – having been eliminated at the Group stages in three of their four previous appearances.

The fourth best team in the world – according to Fifa – qualified comfortably in second-place behind Argentina. They set a personal record by winning 30 points from 16 games, which included notable 4-0 and 3-1 wins against Uruguay and Chile respectively, while they battled hard to earn a point in a goalless draw in Argentina.

Colombia conceded the fewest goals in South American qualifying and secured an impressive 85% of possible points from winning positions. Interestingly in-play bettors should take note that they failed to score from a corner in 16 games; is this a consequence of poor delivery, good defending or just bad luck?

Much of Colombia’s potential success will revolve around striker Radamel Falcao, who scored nine times in qualifying and has 151 goals in 193 club games since playing in Europe.

The conditions in Brazil are likely to favour Los Cafeteros. Their qualifying games were played in the scorching Caribbean port of Barranquilla, opting for mid-afternoon kick-offs in the belief that their rivals would wilt in the heat. At 38, captain Mario Yepes, belied his age in qualification but will he be up to three games in quick succession?.

Apart from the familiar conditions the Colombian’s also have much fewer miles to travel during the group stages compared to their Group C rivals. With shorter travelling times and a familiarity to the conditions, are they undervalued?

Colombia’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

0

0

0

0%

Japan

1

0

1

50%

Greece

0

0

0

0%

Ivory Coast: Golden generation turning grey

Fifa Ranking: 17th

Best Finish: Group Stage (2006 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,081^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 121.000*

The Ivorians are an ageing squad and much like England’s golden generation they have failed to live up to expectations. This is surely the last chance for them to stamp their mark on the world stage, and odds of 2.160* suggest progression from Group C is not a given.

Their failure is evident given they are yet to break their African Cup of Nations duck and failed to get out of the World Cup group stages in 2006 and 2010 when great things were expected. With that said they have been drawn in two ‘Groups of Death’ finishing third behind Argentina and the Netherlands in 2006 and Brazil and Portugal in 2010.

Along with Nigeria, Les lphants were the only African side to qualify unbeaten. They won their preliminary group before beating Senegal 4-2 on aggregate. During qualifying they proved their desire to remain unbeaten by taking 56% of their points from losing positions, while they were one of seven teams who have qualified to score in every match.

With an easier group than they have faced in previous World Cups, is this the time for Didier Drogba and co to deliver? Or will complacency creep into the Ivorian’s approach?

Ivory Coast’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Colombia

0

0

0

0%

Japan

1

1

0

50%

Greece

0

0

0

0%

Japan: Do they have the potential to be a surprise package?

Fifa Ranking: 48th

Best Finish: Round of 16 (2002 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,731^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 121.000*

The Japanese are renowned as a technically gifted team yet defensively susceptible and a little light-weight; as a result they are offered at 2.070* to progress to the knockout stage for the third time.

They have qualified for every World Cup since 1998 and were the first to confirm their name in the draw for 2014. They dominated Asia’s final qualifying group recording 17 points and finishing top scorers – interestingly scoring 30% of their goals from headers.

Despite this, Japan have suffered a dip in form over the last year, which has seen them drop from 24th in the World Rankings to 48th following three straight defeats in the Confederations Cup and losses against Serbia and Belarus. However they responded by drawing in the Netherlands and then beating Belgium in November.

Does this revival in form offer an indication that Japan could yet be a surprise package at the World Cup or is their Confederations Cup embarrassment in Brazil a sign of things to come?

Japan’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

1

1

0

50%

Colombia

0

0

0

0%

Greece

1

0

0

100%

Greece: Will strong defence be enough? 

Fifa Ranking: 12th

Best Finish: Group Stage (1994 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,409^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.000*

Greece are the 3.420* Group C underdogs to progress to the knockout stage, despite being the second best ranked team in the group. In their two previous World Cup campaigns (1994 & 2010) they departed in the group stages, but at Euro 2012 they upset the odds to beat Russia and reach the quarter-finals.

The Greeks finished second in their qualifying group behind Bosnia but beat Romania 4-2 on aggregate in the Playoffs. During qualifying they conceded just four times and two of them were from freekicks.

Portuguese coach, Fernando Santos, has been manager since taking over from Otto Rehhagel – who masterminded Greece’s remarkable Euro 2004 win – in 2010. Santos has previously stated his desire to make the team more expansive, only for them to as he puts it “slip back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength”.

Greece may have a solid defence but to progress to the last 16 they will need to offer more in attack. Target man Kostas Mitroglou may provide the answer for the Ethniki. He has been in terrific form for Olympiakos scoring a goal every 2.04 games, while he netted three times against Romania to qualify.

To qualify for the knockout stages Greece may have to sacrifice a bit of defensive solidity in favour of a more attacking approach, it’s up to you to decide whether this will help or hinder their chances?

Greece’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

0

0

0

0%

Japan

0

1

0

0%

Colombia

0

0

0

0%

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

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