Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Nov 22, 2013

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Despite dominating the Bundesliga this season Bayern have underperformed considerably on the handicap. Does this offer an opportunity for bettors backing Dortmund on the handicap this weekend or is their injury-ravaged squad too weak?

Dortmund Struggling with injuries

Despite starting the Bundesliga season well, Dortmund head into the game with Bayern on the back of consecutive defeats.

They currently sit 2nd in Bundesliga four points behind Bayern after nine wins, one draw and two defeats. At home they have won all six Bundesliga games, scoring 21 and conceding just four.

Injuries to Mats Hummels and Marcel Schmelzer in Germany’s international friendlies have affected a Dortmund squad already riddled with injuries to key players.

So far this season Dortmund have covered 50% of their home games this season, which is slightly better than their overall handicap form, which has The Black and Yellows covering 41.6% of their Bundesliga games this season.

Despite wining ten games at home last season Dortmund only managed to cover the spread in 47% of their 17 games.

Dortmund’s form against the handicap at home this season highlights the bookmaker has a good gauge on the strength of their squad. However do the injury’s to key players present the bettor with an opportunity to take advantage of any uncertainty the bookmaker may have over the adjusted strength of their team.

Are Bayern being overestimated?

Bayern have continued their form from last season and are top of the Bundesliga and undefeated after 12 games – 10 wins, two draws. A win over Dortmund at the weekend will extend their lead at the top to seven-points.

Bayern have adapted to manager Pep Guardiola’s philosophy very quickly and despite not resembling tiki-taka football, there is a clear shift towards a more possession-based style.

After beating Augsburg in their last league match the German champions have now gone 37 games unbeaten, breaking a 30-year-old record in the process.

With little value to be had backing Bayern to win on the 1 x2 market this season it’s worth investigating their form against the spread.

Despite their record breaking season last year, the Bavarians failed to cover the spread in 61.76% of games. On the road however they were much more profitable winning 15 of 17 games and beat the handicap in 70.5% of away games.

This season however has seen the Bavarians constantly underperforming on the handicap, despite winning 10 of their 12 games. They have only covered in 25% of games this season and just 20% on the road.

The reason could be due to the large handicap values they have been set against, which is a sign of bettors overestimating their ability, which may be skewed by last season’s performance, the appointment of Guardiola and bettors overvaluing their superiority.

Der Klassiker: Head-to-head record

Dortmund and Bayern have shared the spoils in the recent Der Klassiker’s at the Westfalenstadion with two wins apiece and three draws.

On the handicap Dortmund have covered 57% of the last seven games, while Bayern have covered just twice, the last time in their 5-1 win in 2009.

Interestingly at home in the last seven years, Dortmund have never been favourites on the handicap, while the last three games have been set at 0 goals.

This year however with two successive defeats and a number of injury’s to key players, Dortmund are offered as the +0.5 underdogs at 1.847* compared to Bayern who are at 2.100* -0.5.

Bettors must decide if Bayern are again overvalued on the handicap or that they are in fact undervalued given that they are in good form and Dortmund’s squad is depleted with injury.

Click here for the latest Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich odds.

*Odds subject to change

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