Should Anderson Silva be favoured in rematch vs. Chris Weidman?

Should Anderson Silva be favoured in rematch vs. Chris Weidman?

By Gary Wise Dec 17, 2013

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11 times, Anderson Silva successfully defended the UFC middleweight belt before losing it to now-champion Chris Weidman at UFC 162 this past July. On December 28th, the two fight again in Weidman’s first title defense. Silva opened as a favourite against the only man who’s ever knocked him out; below, we examine whether he should have.

History and the first fight

Silva’s (1.637*) championship reign was simply the greatest in the history of Mixed Martial Arts. His title defence streak was augmented by three wins at light heavyweight (20 pounds heavier than he customarily fought) and a non-title win against a contender who hadn’t made the weight. In all, he won 16 straight fights in the UFC, another record.

He made it all look too easy, even gaining a reputation for showboating in the ring, at times inviting opponents to hit his unprotected chin in an attempt to incentivise action.

Weidman (2.420*) was respected heading into their first fight, but only to a degree. The 29-year old American entered 9-0 (5-0 UFC 3 KO, 3 sub) in the wake of a brutal knockout of fellow contender Mark Munoz. The market on Silva-Weidman 1 closed with Weidman at 3.11 (Silva at 1.42).

Remarkably, according to Pinnacle Sports markets, that gave Weidman the second-best chance to win of Silva’s ten opponents over the last half-decade.

The fight started with the two circling until Weidman succeeded on his first takedown attempt. Keeping Silva on his back for more than two minutes, Weidman scored enough points to clinch the round before the champion got back to his feet, almost immediately taunting Weidman and calling for an increased pace.

The taunts continued between the first and second rounds, and when Silva intentionally dropped his hands early in the second round, Weidman took advantage. He landed a strike that surprised Silva, putting him off balance. The next strike knocked Silva out cold, ending his title reign.

In the aftermath, all focus was on Silva. After Weidman enthused about a rematch, Silva called Weidman the best and told Rogan he had no interest. “I’m working hard for a long time” he told Rogan “I have the belt for a long time. I’m tired.” Asked if he was retiring, he spoke of the fights left on his UFC contract and turning his attention to his family.

It seemed to many to be pre-meditated and there were questions about whether the loss served as a release. Taken a step further, some wondered if that mindset had affected his preparation.

In their first fight, Weidman out-struck Silva 16-14, scored the fight’s only takedown, made two (strong) submission attempts and knocked Silva out. This is your underdog.

Striking

Silva is generally considered to be the best striker in MMA history, a claim backed up by his career data. While Silva and Weidman have virtually identical strikes per minute (3.15 to 3.14) over their careers, Weidman has landed 42% of the time, compared to Silva’s remarkable 67% success rate.

This means Weidman is throwing 50% more strikes-per-minute, while also absorbing more opposing strikes than Silva (1.89/minute to 1.43). Weidman has never gone more than 3 rounds, but one could extrapolate the pace he sets could cause him problems if the second fight were to go to rounds 4 and 5.

Given Silva’s reputation and record, one has to think a focused Silva would be far more difficult to knock out than he showed at UFC 162.

Grappling

A two-time all-American wrestler in college, Weidman’s professional stats reflect that pedigree. He’s averaged 4.21 takedown attempts every 15 minutes in the ring, converting two-thirds of them while having never been taken down himself as a professional.

As mentioned earlier, once Weidman got Silva on to the mat, he kept him there for some time, with Silva only managing to get up when Weidman committed himself with a submission attempt. That may have been the result of a questionable tactical decision by Weidman.

Silva possesses a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and hasn’t suffered a submission since the end of 2004. While Silva has a 70% takedown prevention rate, he’s shown weakness in that regard against aggressive wrestlers like Weidman – his first fight against Chael Sonnen would have been a loss were it not for a tactical error on Sonnen’s part.

This suggests Weidman could have gone to that approach more than once. It seems like repeated Weidman takedowns resulting in a lopsided judge’s decision could be a legitimate path to victory.

The Intangibles

While we generally applaud heavy data use for finding patterns in competitive chaos, there are times where they don’t tell the entire story; here are a number of intangibles to consider:

Silva’s looked bored in his last few fights, a pattern leading to the lapse in concentration that cost him his title.

The post-fight interview in which Silva waved off the rematch option suggested his competitive fire was waning.

Silva signed a 10-fight deal prior to UFC 162 that White called “A Floyd Mayweather Jr. contract.” He’s getting paid regardless of the championship.

As great as Silva has been, he’s now 38-years-old. One wonders if time may have caught up.

A champion has regained a title from a champion who defeated them for it only twice.

For all of Silva’s greatness, Weidman was winning their first match even before the knockout, and seems to be possess the perfect combination of skills to challenge Silva: Superior wrestling with the striking to make it difficult to defend against.

While Weidman’s resume is short by comparison, it’s unblemished. We still don’t know how good he is.

To make an educated bet on this match, you’ll want to know the data and watch the lead-up. Silva’s posture, his demeanor, reports on his training regime, discussion of legacy… they should all contribute to your decision in what looks to be a unique betting opportunity on a unique fight…and a historic one.

Should Anderson Silva be the favourite? The question is more convoluted than ever before. The smartest bettors in the world bet at Pinnacle Sports and the market they’ve created suggests that he is. The question you need to answer is whether you think they’re inside Anderson Silva’s head before the toughest psychological test of his UFC career.

You can bet on Anderson Silva or Chris Weidman and the other fights at UFC 168 here.

*Odds subject to change

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