Are Man City undervalued on the handicap against Arsenal?

Are Man City undervalued on the handicap against Arsenal?

By Michael Gales Dec 11, 2013

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Man City and Arsenal go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday bringing together the EPL’s best home and away sides. More important for handicap bettors Arsenal lead the Pinnacle Sports Handicap table, but with City’s recent ruthless home form, is their -0.5 handicap an undervaluation?

City undervalued at home on the handicap

Results wise the Etihad Stadium plays host on Saturday to the best away – Arsenal – and home – Man City – sides in the Premier League. City have a 100% home record from their seven games, while Arsenal have won 71% of their away fixtures.

Despite their eye-catching form, Handicap bettors should be more interested to see how both teams perform in the Pinnacle Sports handicap table, with Man City set as the -0.5  at 1.820* handicap favourites and Arsenal on +0.5 at 2.140*.

Arsenal top the table after covering 73.3% of their Premier League games this season, while Manchester City are struggling in mid-table having covered less than half (46.7%) of their games. This highlights that Arsenal’s handicap results are as good as their straight up form, while City’s performance in the EPL is better than their handicap performance.

The Citizens have covered 87% of their games at the Etihad

With City playing at home, however it is important to look at their record against the spread on home soil. The Citizens have covered 87% of their games at the Etihad – with the 2-0 win against Hull recorded as a push. In addition to highlighting their Jekyll and Hyde performances, this number shows bookmakers have undervalued them on the handicap at home this season, but for how long?

With the Gunners performing better than anyone against the spread this season, it doesn’t come as a big surprise to see they have covered an impressive 71% of their away games – failing to cover in a 1-1 draw with WBA and the 1-0 defeat at Manchester United.

Factors affecting the handicap

Before betting on the Man City Arsenal handicap there are a number of other factors to consider.

While Arsenal’s record on the road is fantastic, the 71% covering rate is not as impressive when you look at the quality of opposition they have played.

Apart from Manchester United – their only defeat on the road– they haven’t played any team in the top half of the table, while four of their seven away games have been against Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Fulham and Cardiff, who are 20th, 19th, 18th and 16th respectively.

Handicap bettors must decide if Arsenal’s dominance against the smaller teams is deceptive and whether they will struggle against stronger teams like United and City, while deciding how much this reflected in the 0.5 handicap.

Manchester City in comparison have played four of the top nine at the Etihad already and covered the spread in all four games, registering victories of 4-0, 4-1, 3-1 and 6-0. City’s home form has been so impressive they average 4.14 and concede 0.29 goals per game, which is an overall home goal difference average of 3.85 goals.

This is even more impressive when you compare their record to Chelsea who are the second best performing team at home in the Premier League but have an overall home goal difference average of 1.57 goals.

With their total supremacy at home so far against quality opposition, do City have more desire when playing better opposition? If so, is the -0.5 handicap stingy, given their previous results at home?

Another factor to consider is both teams will have played Champions League football in mid-week in Italy and Germany.

With travel distances and times relatively similar, will the fact Arsenal play three games in seven days have a bigger impact on their squad than City who play three games in eight?  The schedule also appears kinder to City who will have an extra days rest ahead of the game on Saturday as they play on Tuesday compared to Wednesday for the Gunners.

When setting their own handicap for the game bettors should ask themselves how much of an advantage are those extra days rest for City? More than 0.5 goals?

Given Man City’s home form on the handicap and Arsenal’s lack of quality opposition on the road, bettors must decide if the -0.5 handicap is once more undervaluing City, or if their run will come to an abrupt end? Depending on which way you answer this question will ultimately decide the way you bet.

Click here for the latest Man City vs Arsenal odds.

*Odds subject to change

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