Where the value is in 2014 MLB betting

Where the value is in 2014 MLB betting

By Gary Wise Mar 18, 2014

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With the MLB season ready to hit full swing on March 30th, MLB bettors should be inclined towards betting on World Series futures. Below, we look at factors worth considering as you search for value on the 2014 MLB outright betting markets.

Where markets and predictive models deviate.

Fangraphs is a leading baseball analytics website whose features include projection systems that use historic data to make predictions. The below chart looks at predicted W-L records for each major league team, comparing those records to corresponding team over-under lines posted amongst Pinnacle Sports’ MLB futures.

A few things to keep in mind when looking at these predictions:

MLB projections tend to play out closer to the mean than reality, in large part because these predictions don’t account for the outliers luck creates. Note that no team is predicted to win more than 91 games.

While certainly worthy of your study, we are not endorsing these predictions as the only ones you should enlist.

While our over/under lines generally started at close to even, some markets have drifted. Differential totals marked with an asterisk have moved to the point where the favoured side of the market has moved into the 1.70-1.79 range as of publication. No totals line amongst these has moved below 1.70.

Data used here on O/U is from Monday, March 17th.

2014 Team

W

L

O/U

Diff

Dodgers

91

71

92.5

1.5*

Tigers

90

72

90

0

Red Sox

88

74

88

0

Rays

87

75

88

1

Nationals

86

76

89.5

3.5

Cardinals

86

76

91.5

5.5

Angels

86

76

86.5

0.5

Athletics

84

78

88.5

4.5

Giants

84

78

86.5

2.5

Pirates

84

78

84.5

0.5*

Blue Jays

84

78

80.5

-3.5

Yankees

84

78

87

3*

Mariners

83

79

81

-2

Rangers

83

79

87

4

Indians

82

80

80.5

-1.5

Braves

82

80

87.5

5.5*

Reds

82

80

84.5

2.5

Padres

80

82

79

-1

Orioles

80

82

81.5

1.5*

Diamondbacks

80

82

81.5

1.5*

Royals

79

83

82

3

Rockies

79

83

76.5

-2.5

Brewers

77

85

80

3

Phillies

75

87

76.5

1.5

Mets

75

87

74

-1

Cubs

75

87

70

-5

White Sox

74

88

76.5

2.5*

Marlins

73

89

69.5

-3.5

Twins

69

93

70.5

1.5

Astros

68

94

62.5

-5.5

The larger the number in the right-most column, the less agreement you’ll find between the predictions and markets, suggesting there is greater opportunity in betting those markets.

With negative numbers, the predictions are giving teams like the Blue Jays, Indians and Rockies a lot more credit for potential success than the markets do; an opportunity if you’re looking for longshots. Large positive numbers, like those we see with the Nationals, Cardinals, A’s and Braves, at least provide opportunity for profit in betting under the predicted number of games won, though may suggest a team isn’t worth your World Series vote.

The market (size) doesn’t matter

It’s seldom you’ll hear someone at Pinnacle Sports say the above, and this time, it’s only because of a play on words. Major media markets saturate the market with winter speculation, with the likes of the LA Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs – all of whom have incredibly powerful media followings – potentially getting more attention than deserved.

With those powerful clubs considered the apple of the national media’s eye (after all, national media goes in large part off what they hear from municipally-inclined media, so there’s a direct correlation between size of media market and amount of national attention), clubs in smaller markets often will not get their appropriate share of popular appraisal.  Which are the smallest markets in MLB by population?

Milwaukee (1.56M), Kansas City (2.07M), Cleveland (2.09M), Cincinnati (2.17M) and Pittsburgh (2.35M). Assuming media influence is commensurate with population, even Pinnacle Sports’ non-American user-base is likely to somewhat be influenced by the local baseball news.

Big newsmakers

Our statement about not betting the Nationals, Cardinals A’s and Braves make some sense here. The Nationals are a big hype team, thanks to Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg; the Cardinals just made the World Series; the A’s are Billy Beane’s team and get more attention that their geography suggests they should; and the Braves had a huge offseason, signing many key players to long-term deals.

Divisional toughness

Ten teams make the MLB playoffs, 4 of which play immediately to take the field to eight. With that format in mind, we realize that with all things being roughly equal, a sure-thing playoff team (if there were such a thing) has a roughly 1 in 8 shot to win the title. With the most popular bets amongst champion futures close to that value, the certainty of a favoured team making the playoffs has to be weighed. The clearer the path, the better the true odds.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers have the best odds in our markets of winning the World Series and this reasoning likely plays into it. Both teams are built on multi-superstar foundations, with resources to buoy their rosters as necessary whilst playing in what are generally considered the two weakest divisions in baseball. No other team in the Tigers’ AL Central is given better odds of winning the series than the Kansas City Royals’ 32.140*; No NL West team other than the Dodgers is rated better than the San Francisco Giants’ 26.96*, and that number may be benefitting from the Giants winning the championship two years ago with a vastly different team.

Making the playoffs is the first, very big step. There’s value in knowing it’s the next best thing to a sure thing. The Tigers are at 1.392* to win their division and the Dodgers 1.463*; and the Pinnacle Sports markets are seldom very far off.

Regression to the mean

Every year, there are teams that don’t measure up to the hype and it’s often as much due to luck as skill. Injuries, offensive timing, a poor record in one-run games, etc. can contribute to a team’s downfall, and as we saw with the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2013, there can be a snowball effect.

The good news for fans of those teams and bettors is that there’s usually some regression to the mean, which against the perception of the previous season’s win loss record can create value. Teams like the Jays and Angels, both of which saw massive injury tolls last season, should gain at least some wins just by virtue of the fact it’s a different year.

Conclusions

In the end, it mostly comes down to team Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and a little bit of luck, but the above factors all serve to throw off an individual’s WAR calculations.  Finding where the masses have erred is key to getting a +EV bet down on the clubs you ultimately deem worthy.  Keep looking for trends in missed calculations and you should do well in 2014.

Click here to see the latest 2014 MLB Futures odds.

*Odds subject to change

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