How will Bigfoot Silva adjust to a step-down in intensity?

How will Bigfoot Silva adjust to a step-down in intensity?

By Gary Wise Dec 2, 2013

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The UFC Fight Night 33 main event sees Bigfoot Silva fight Mark Hunt in a heavyweight bout on December 7th. We look at factors that will ultimately shape the fight and your bets upon it in this five round non-title bout.

What’s at stake?

Silva vs. Hunt is unlikely to have title ramifications.  While Bigfoot is the #4 heavyweight in the world, he has lost three of his last five fights, all by first round knockouts at the hands of a superior breed of heavyweight. His two losses to current champion Cain Velasquez virtually guarantee he won’t be getting another title fight soon, though the caliber of his opposition in these fights installed him as the 1.625* favourite.

Like Bigfoot, Hunt 2.440* is coming off a KO loss. His defeat at the hands of Junior dos Santos ended a four-fight win streak against mediocre heavyweight fighters. While Silva has relatively recent wins against big names Fedor Emilianenko and Alistair Overeem, Hunt lacks a similar CV and is still unlisted in the UFC’s official top 10 heavyweight rankings.

Silva is 34 and Hunt 39, so the likelihood of either getting a title shot in their careers seems slim. That means they’re fighting for paychecks, a reality which could favour Hunt; after all, he’s accustomed to such circumstances, while Silva has recently fought on the world’s biggest stages, how will he find the motivation in an obvious drop down in intensity. He has the bigger adjustment to make.

Knockouts 

This fight is scheduled for five rounds, but seems unlikely to get that far if you look at the combatants’ recent records. Silva’s last seven fights have been won (or lost) by knockout, a streak going back over three years. The three fights Silva lost in that span were via first round knockout. If Hunt’s going to win, it most likely will be by taking advantage of Bigfoot’s much-abused jaw.

Silva’s last 7 fights have been won (or lost) by KO

Four of Hunt’s last five fights have also ended via knockout, with the one exception being his decision win over Ben Rothwell two years ago. While both fighters could punch themselves out early (as happened in the Rothwell fight), the chances seem extremely low that they’ll do it at the same pace. Neither guy enters the ring hoping to stay there long.

Striking

Hunt and Silva have similar striking, with virtually identical accuracy (Hunt 44%, Silva 43%) and defence (Hunt 57%, Silva 55%). The differences come in the frequency with which they hit and are hit. Hunt had the edge in both categories, landing 3.43 strikes per minute to Silva’s 2.73, while absorbing 2.2 strikes per minute to Silva’s 2.51. None of this is surprising when you consider Hunt’s 43 professional kickboxing matches.

Looking at the tale of the tape, one would think the striking advantage would be Silva’s thanks to an 82-inch wingspan, an 8-inch reach advantage. Consider this though; Hunt’s last two wins came against Stefan Struve (84 inch reach) and Cheick Kongo (82 inches). Silva’s background meanwhile is in karate, so he’s accustomed to not only using his reach effectively, but also counter-attacking against aggressive striking like Hunt’s.

Submissions

The problem for Hunt is that he virtually has to win on his feet. Silva’s only earned 3 of his 18 professional victories by submission, but he’s never been submitted himself, while Hunt has never won that way. Fortunately, Hunt knows this; he’s averaged less than 1 takedown attempt for every 15 minutes of ring time over the course of his career, while effectively using his low center of gravity to avoid takedowns on 69% of opponent attempts, a number that could make things difficult for Silva.

Silva has only managed to succeed with takedown attempts 40% of the time throughout his career, while only averaging 1.23 attempts per 15 minutes ring time. In other words, getting the fight to the ground will be difficult.

Summary

This is a match-up of two strikers that seems unlikely to reach the ground. The question is whether Hunt’s attacks or Silva’s counter-attacks will prove superior, along with the added question of what recent knockouts have done to both men’s jaws. Silva’s resume suggests he’s been fighting at a higher level, which may be the reason he opened as a 61% favourite; the market’s movement will tell you something regarding what our bettors think of that appraisal.

See the latest UFC Fight Night 33 here.

*Odds subject to change

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