Are Cardiff underrated at home against Southampton?

Are Cardiff underrated at home against Southampton?

By Michael Gales Dec 23, 2013

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Despite covering the spread in 62.5% of home games this season, Cardiff City find themselves as underdogs against visiting Southampton on Boxing Day. Given the Saints’ poor form of late and Cardiff’s record at home on the handicap are the Bluebirds undervalued?

What does Cardiff’s handicap form suggest?

Four-points above the relegation zone newcomers Cardiff City may be struggling in their inaugural year in the Premier League – winning just three of their eight home games – but handicap bettors will be interested by their performance against the spread.

A quick look at Cardiff’s record would suggest they haven’t had a great start at home, however they have played six of the top eight at home already, losing their three games against Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle.

Unsurprisingly given their opposition at the Cardiff City Stadium, Handicap bettors will be interested to know they have been underdogs against the spread at home in all but one game – Newcastle United.

The Bluebirds have covered the spread in 52.9% of games this season but at home their percentage increases to 62.5%.

So despite facing tougher opposition they have performed better on the spread at home than on the road where they have faced seven of their nine games against teams in the bottom half of the EPL, covering just 33% of the time.

Once more Cardiff are underdogs with the handicap set at 0 and -0.5 in favour of the visitors, are the bookmakers undervaluing the Bluebirds again?

Mackay vs. Tan: A motivation or a hindrance?

Cardiff manager Malky Mackay expected to lose his job last weekend after being given an ultimatum to resign or be sacked by the clubs owner Vincent Tan.

Despite masterminding Cardiff’s promotion last season the relationship between manager/owner has been toxic for a number of weeks, and almost came to a head. Many believe the situation is untenable but Mackay is refusing to resign and Tan has stated he won’t sack him at the moment.

Bettors should consider how this off the field issue might affect the players. Could it provide motivation for the team creating a mentality of ‘lets do it for the manager’ or might it have a negative impact? Only time will tell, but it is something worth considering before placing your bet.

Southampton’s handicap performance on the road

Southampton made a fantastic start to the season but are the worst team in the EPL form guide and have slipped down to ninth in the table following four defeats and two draws in their last six games.

Against the handicap this season the Saints have covered the spread in 52.9% of their EPL games – but just twice in the last six games. Interestingly they have covered in 50% of their away games, including at Newcastle, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Another point worth noting is that the Saints have failed to score more than one goal in an away game this season and average 0.75 goals per game, compared to 1.29 at home, while they concede just 1.13 goals per game, the second best in the division.

Southampton’s away games have been low scoring affairs with an average of 1.87 goals per game, however excluding the 3-1 and 2-0 defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal respectively, that average falls to a mere 1.28 goals.

This highlights that away from home Southampton are tough to score against, but may sacrifice some of their attacking threat in order to keep it tight at the back.

Bettors must decide if the Saints – who are in a poor run of form – as 0 and -0.5 favourites are overvalued, given they are playing a Cardiff team who have performed above expectations on the spread at home this season?

Click here to see the latest Cardiff City vs. Southampton odds

*Odds subject to change

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