Which Serie A teams are exceeding expectations on the handicap?

Which Serie A teams are exceeding expectations on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Dec 31, 2013

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With the 2013/14 Serie A season now on its annual winter break until January 5th, Pinnacle Sports has gathered this seasons handicap data for bettors to analyse. Juventus may have won 15 of their 17 Serie A games, but have covered the handicap just 52.9%.

The story so far: 2013/14 Serie A handicap table before winter break

The Serie A handicap table below shows how well the Italian teams have performed against expectations so far this season. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for Serie A soccer betting.

2013/14 Serie A Handicap table

Team

Handicap Position

Serie A Position

Difference

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Roma

1

2

+1

70.6%

66.7%

75.0%

Verona

2

6

+4

70.6%

88.9%

50.0%

Sampdoria

3

14

+11

64.7%

44.4%

87.5%

Napoli

4

3

-1

58.8%

55.6%

62.5%

Cagliari

5

12

+7

52.9%

66.7%

37.5%

Inter

6

5

-1

52.9%

66.7%

37.5%

Juventus

7

1

-6

52.9%

62.5%

44.4%

Torino

8

7

-1

52.9%

77.8%

25.0%

Atalanta

9

15

+6

47.1%

75.0%

22.2%

Chievo

10

16

+6

47.1%

37.5%

55.6%

Sassuolo

11

18

+7

47.1%

37.5%

55.6%

Udinese

12

11

-1

47.1%

50.0%

44.4%

Bologna

13

17

+4

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Fiorentina

14

4

-10

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Genoa

15

9

-6

41.2%

37.5%

44.4%

Lazio

16

10

-6

41.2%

62.5%

22.2%

Parma

17

8

-9

41.2%

33.3%

50.0%

Livorno

18

19

+1

29.4%

33.3%

25.0%

Catania

19

20

+1

23.5%

25.0%

22.2%

AC Milan

20

13

-7

17.6%

25.0%

11.1%

Roma & Verona: Both performing far above bookmaker expectations

Roma and Verona have covered 70.6% of their games this season and lead the way in the Serie A Pinnacle Sports handicap table – they are 5.9% better off than Samdoria in third and covered 11.8% more than Napoli in fourth.

Roma are second in Serie A but despite trailing leaders Juventus by 10-points they have been a handicappers dream this season. La Maggia have covered the handicap 66.7% (4th best) of their games at home and on the road an impressive 75.0% (4th best). This showcases that Roma have consistently performed above expectations both home and away this season.

Verona – sixth in Serie A – in comparison have had contrasting form on the handicap when playing at home compared to away. The Gialloblu have been exceptional at home on the handicap this season covering in 88.9% of games. On the road however they have covered in just 50.0% of those games.

Bettors would be well advised to monitor the handicap values at both Roma and Verona to recognise when either are overvalued as a result of their performances against the spread thus far.

Catania & Milan: Two to avoid for handicap bettors

AC Milan are one of the most prestigious teams in Italy with 18 Serie A titles. The Rossoneri’s haven’t finished outside the top three of Serie A since the 2007-08 season but find themselves struggling in 13th – 17 points from third.

With such poor performances this season it isn’t surprising that Milan are the worst performing team against the spread this season covering in a measly 17.6% (3 matches) of games – 25% at home and 11.1% (worst in the division) on the road.

With bookmakers obviously overvaluing the Rossoneri’s strength in the first half of the season, the key question is by how much? Answering this question could prove profitable as the bookmaker reacts to their handicap form, creating an opportunity for them to be undervalued in the future.

Catania topped the handicap table last season covering in 60% of Serie A games. However this season they have covered just 23.5% of their games, and are bottom of the Serie A table. Is their handicap form a result of them overachieving so much last season?

Sampdoria & Lazio: A tale of home and away

When betting on the handicap bettors should be mindful of teams that perform better at home than on the road, and vice versa. These trends can skew their overall handicap performance and so far in the 2013/14 Serie A season Sampdoria and Lazio are two such teams.

Lazio have an overall handicap cover percentage of 41.2%, while Sampdoria have done so in 64.7% of their games. However by keeping their own data bettors would have noticed that Lazio’s home record (62.5%) against the spread is far superior to when they play away (22.2%).

Sampdoria in comparison have covered the spread at home in just 44.4% of their home games compared to an impressive 87.5% (best in the division) on their travels.

Both Lazio’s and Sampdoria’s handicap form this season highlights the need for bettors to keep their own handicap records so they can highlight trends in the data, helping them set their own handicap strength and therefore deciding if a teams handicap is wrong.

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest Serie A handicap betting odds now.

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