Rematches, age & chasing bonuses in UFC

Rematches, age & chasing bonuses in UFC

By Gary Wise Mar 14, 2014

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On March 23rd, Dan Henderson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua headline a UFC Fight Night in a rematch of their now-classic 2011 war. Below, we look at their history and factors UFC bettors should consider when betting on the fight.

What happened in Henderson vs. Shogun 1

The UFC 139 headliner, Henderson-Shogun 1 was the rare fight that lived up to the hype. Henderson, fresh off a shocking knockout of legend Fedor Emilienenko, just-returned to the UFC with the Strikeforce Light-heavyweight belt in hand.

Henderson had been talked up for a potential title unification bout with Jon Jones, but instead got Shogun, another legend who was coming off a similar first round KO win (Forest Griffin) after losing his belt to Jones. It was clearly a title eliminator bout, with then-41 year old Henderson opening as the 1.952 favourite. He didn’t stay there for long, with money steadily creeping in on Rua, who closed at 1.641.

Despite the market’s sentiments, it was Henderson who emerged victorious in San Jose. He dominated the first two rounds, with onlookers shocked at Rua’s ability to see the bell. While the Brazilian forged a comeback in the late rounds, it was too little too late. Both men went to hospital in the aftermath of what most onlookers have called one of the greatest fights in UFC history.

The Consequences

While the brutal toll of the first fight was immediately evident on both fighters, the longer-term ramifications were still to play out. Shogun, who was 4-4 in his last 8 fights after the Hendo match (20-6 overall), is 2-2 since, including an embarrassing first round submission loss to Chael Sonnen despite being a 1.645 favourite. His wins have come over fighters who don’t measure up to his past glories.

It’s been even worse for Henderson. Promised a title fight by Dana White in the post-Rua-fight media scrum. Henderson lost the opportunity when he pulled out of the title bout with a knee injury. He’s lost his three fights since; by split decisions to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, then via first round knockout at the hands of Vitor Belfort in November. Now 43, there are real questions about whether Henderson can still compete, especially after being knocked out for the first time in his career.

Henderson-Shogun 2

Regardless of the status of the fight, there are still bets to be made, and factors you’ll want to consider when you’re making them:

Yes, there’s a major sample size issue here (as with most MMA W-L data), but in headliner rematches dating back to UFC 57: Liddell vs. Couture 3 (the first UFC card named for its headliner match), of the 17 headliner rematches fought in the UFC, 11 have been won by the original victor, including 10 of the last 12.

Dan Henderson is 43 years old. More on this in a moment…

Shogun’s last 7 wins (dating back to 2007) have been by knockout or TKO. One might think this would have boded well for Henderson previous to the Belfort KO, but not so. In his excellent piece The Price of Wisdom: Age and Knockouts in MMA (a great read to research this fight), Reed Kuhn details how age-36-and-up fighters suffer a sharp uptick in the frequency at which they suffer knockouts. Belfort’s kick was a long time coming according to the history of human anatomy.

Shogun holds an edge over Henderson in strikes landed, striking accuracy, takedown average and submission attempts averaged.

Another sample size issue, but Shogun has fought in four rematches over the course of his career and won them all. Three of them have avenged previous losses. He seems to learn from his mistakes.

What you can expect

This is no Gustafsson-Manuwa, where one fighter is heavily favoured. There are strong arguments for either fighter winning a fight that most expect to stay on its feet. Why that expectation? Neither man is fighting for a title at any time in the near future; this fight is about the spectacle of sport. It’s reasonable to think there’s an expectation to live up to the standard the first fight set. It’s also reasonable to think both fighters will have a potential Fight of the Night bonus in mind.

Rua is showing up as a stronger favourite than he was the first time, but we’ve already seen that the markets could end up wrong. Still, it seems like, in a fight featuring two performers who know they’re not fighting for titles any time soon and who will want to entertain, Henderson’s advancing age and apparently weakening jaw bode poorly. Look for them to stay on their feet, a reality that favours the younger man.

Agree or disagree, you can bet on UFC Fight Night Henderson vs. Rua here.

*Odds subject to change

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